tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-288195452024-03-07T06:14:18.107-08:00The Hot Hand in SportsAnalyzing Sports Streakiness with Texas Tech Professor Alan Reifman........................................................................(See twitter.com/alanreifman for more frequent postings)...................................................................................alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.comBlogger689125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-80891859581326324852022-06-15T17:02:00.006-07:002022-06-15T17:58:28.362-07:00How Does Oklahoma's Current Softball Run Compare to Other Dynasties in NCAA Women's Sports?<p><b><span style="color: red;"><i>"the best team to ever take the field"</i> (</span><a href="https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/softball/oklahoma-softball-patty-gassos-2022-champions-finish-as-the-best-team-in-history" target="_blank"><i>Sports Illustrated</i></a><span style="color: red;">)</span></b></p><p><b><i><span style="color: red;">"the most dominant team in sports"</span></i> and <i><span style="color: red;">"women amongst girls"</span></i> (<a href="https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/33970579/oklahoma-softball-secrets-most-dominant-team-sports">ESPN.com</a>)</b></p><p>As many readers are aware, last week the University of Oklahoma women's softball team capped an overpowering 59-3 season with a <a href="https://soonersports.com/news/2022/6/9/softball-back-to-back-sooners-win-sixth-national-title.aspx" target="_blank">two-games-to-none wipeout</a> of the University of Texas in the championship round of the NCAA Women's College World Series (WCWS). The quotes atop this posting are some of the media characterizations of this year's Sooners squad. Further capturing the imagination of the U.S. sports world was OU star Jocelyn Alo, who finished her collegiate career as the <a href="https://soonerswire.usatoday.com/gallery/oklahoma-sooners-softball-jocelyn-alo-womens-college-world-series-ncaa-all-time-home-run-leader/" target="_blank">all-time NCAA softball home-run slugger</a>.</p><p>The Sooners' success is not limited to the present season, either. OU has won the WCWS six times overall, including the last two and five of the last nine contested (there was no tournament in 2020 due to COVID-19). Without question, Oklahoma is the premier college softball program of the current era. However, there have been dominant women's programs in the past, not only in softball, but in a variety of other sports. Where does the OU softball program stand, historically, in relation to these other programs?</p><p>I decided to apply my enjoyment of graphic arts to this question. It has been slightly over 40 years since the NCAA took over the governance of women's collegiate sports in 1981.* Accordingly, I created a separate display for each program I'm examining (e.g., Oklahoma softball, UConn basketball, Penn State volleyball). Within each display are 42 small circles (or fewer, as when COVID-19 prevented 2020 spring championships from being held), with each NCAA national championship won by the program filled in with the main school color. Purely for purposes of explanation, the first graphic illustrates how the circles correspond to actual years.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu1QaPoDAWXu-BHt784Aak4jLEJdXgufc_YxwlJ3fmsiOxFQwqizqrJQpxadTYtXHYvIcskESunnOhZXdgnTDEKsYShc4XiyCW57D4USjwYLv-N8ACacU-89mKGHsClCCOZDINZ29m5OG_Wgbaf7kIXyyv6nIpjDKlZTpM59U34NtLt2aFRw/s376/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%201.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="195" data-original-width="376" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu1QaPoDAWXu-BHt784Aak4jLEJdXgufc_YxwlJ3fmsiOxFQwqizqrJQpxadTYtXHYvIcskESunnOhZXdgnTDEKsYShc4XiyCW57D4USjwYLv-N8ACacU-89mKGHsClCCOZDINZ29m5OG_Wgbaf7kIXyyv6nIpjDKlZTpM59U34NtLt2aFRw/w431-h224/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%201.JPG" width="431" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Each of the diagonal columns represents a different decade. The left-most column depicts the 1980s, as signified by the heading "198_." The final digits to complete a year (e.g., 1981, 1982) are denoted in the rows. As you can see, as an example, where the 1980s column intersects the row with "3" to the left represents the year 1983.** With that out of the way, let's look at the records of several legendary programs in different sports.<div><br /></div><div>Starting out with softball, we place Oklahoma's championship resume alongside those of the two top programs for titles won, UCLA and Arizona.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhchE2jOtRie6Z1Ya9ZhN2FRm5sAk8VlBBdwaHhUqwNrUIOyvcSRPr0ZRRwLvJOSppdhCDwarXuk37PEQxJw2LA5aZjiJdMOGHuWY9nOK3g56L4opIdhoJ772sP-j6w7dWTotkwHbc-0e_42dA4qDZLrHgcBPlxC5bdkXcpMRf0cA8Pvq0gXQ/s715/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%202.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="471" data-original-width="715" height="345" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhchE2jOtRie6Z1Ya9ZhN2FRm5sAk8VlBBdwaHhUqwNrUIOyvcSRPr0ZRRwLvJOSppdhCDwarXuk37PEQxJw2LA5aZjiJdMOGHuWY9nOK3g56L4opIdhoJ772sP-j6w7dWTotkwHbc-0e_42dA4qDZLrHgcBPlxC5bdkXcpMRf0cA8Pvq0gXQ/w523-h345/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%202.JPG" width="523" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Pardon the pun, but Oklahoma (with six WCWS titles) will likely surpass Arizona's eight "sooner" rather than later. Overtaking UCLA (with 12 titles in the <a href="https://newsroom.ucla.edu/magazine/womens-softball-first-ncaa-title" target="_blank">past 40 years</a>) will have to be a longer-term project for OU. UCLA and Arizona each continue to make the WCWS regularly, but the Bruins have won titles more recently than the Wildcats and are probably stronger contenders to add new titles in the coming years. In fact, UCLA handed OU one of its three defeats this year, in the <a href="https://uclabruins.com/news/2022/6/6/softball-ucla-splits-doubleheader-with-oklahoma-ending-season.aspx" target="_blank">national semifinal round</a> before the Sooners exacted their revenge to advance to the finals.<br /><p>Two schools stand out within women's college basketball, the University of Connecticut (UConn) and the University of Tennessee. These teams' coaches during their dominant eras -- Geno Auriemma, who is still at UConn, and the late Pat Summitt of Tennessee -- are legends of the sport, as well.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOZHW-qSJhcQe6ScxZmcX11uh_qWDr2Df1d3PjsItOxxdWVBRthQAjWQZhyJuWnQt9WgZOOFGHosOvWaDHKLdVCJV0Ky1efY6Spc9678g4axxaSOPhLS8KXO94DAz5UnaXl-ZjvsLd66LETuygI1cfS7bHMCq_sxc_aL-SJU3jhTUKy5unjA/s711/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%203.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="267" data-original-width="711" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOZHW-qSJhcQe6ScxZmcX11uh_qWDr2Df1d3PjsItOxxdWVBRthQAjWQZhyJuWnQt9WgZOOFGHosOvWaDHKLdVCJV0Ky1efY6Spc9678g4axxaSOPhLS8KXO94DAz5UnaXl-ZjvsLd66LETuygI1cfS7bHMCq_sxc_aL-SJU3jhTUKy5unjA/w595-h223/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%203.JPG" width="595" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Note that UConn, in addition to winning 11 NCAA titles, compiled winning streaks of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball_winning_streaks" target="_blank">70, 90, and 111 games</a> along the way. The Huskies' last championship came in 2016, but they made the championship game this <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/04/03/1090631329/march-madness-champions-usc-gamecocks" target="_blank">past season</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>The next graphic is devoted to two sports, volleyball and soccer. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivlzSVgFrQI8DfnOwu4haQQ7NgZH5BQ2idb2v1K7NeaBVr5p_5AUu2Bvacb_GElWBbRcENbb9fJDp4sWOL1Az7bzSJa_ui6WEgFZ4s4Bmvursvg1XHG9AoybPARQyWw5-19xAZ01lHn4aNffbObsO9HU9iUKI6XSR3URoxAaf1D7wPtETk7A/s713/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%204.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="266" data-original-width="713" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivlzSVgFrQI8DfnOwu4haQQ7NgZH5BQ2idb2v1K7NeaBVr5p_5AUu2Bvacb_GElWBbRcENbb9fJDp4sWOL1Az7bzSJa_ui6WEgFZ4s4Bmvursvg1XHG9AoybPARQyWw5-19xAZ01lHn4aNffbObsO9HU9iUKI6XSR3URoxAaf1D7wPtETk7A/w606-h226/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%204.JPG" width="606" /></a></div><br /><div>Penn State has won seven volleyball titles, including a stretch of six out of eight. Also, the Nittany Lions won <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-sports/news/story?id=5562162" target="_blank">109 straight matches</a> between 2007 and 2010. Penn State coach Russ Rose recently <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/volleyball-women/article/2021-12-23/legendary-penn-state-womens-volleyball-coach-russ-rose-announces-retirement" target="_blank">retired</a> after 43 years, so the Lions will be in transition. Out on the soccer pitch, the University of North Carolina has compiled what I consider the best resume of any women's college sports program, with a mindboggling 21 titles (including 16 of the first 19). <a href="https://talkingpointssports.com/soccer/national-womens-hall-of-fame-inductee-mia-hamm-becomes-the-first-u-s-soccer-player-to-be-inducted/" target="_blank">Mia Hamm</a>, one of the biggest names in women's soccer history, played for the Tar Heels. Though UNC hasn't hoisted the championship trophy since 2012, it has remained in the hunt, finishing as NCAA runner-up in 2018 and 2019. <a href="https://goheels.com/sports/womens-soccer/roster/coaches/anson-dorrance/3770" target="_blank">Anson Dorrance</a> will be entering his 46th season at the Tar Heels' helm this fall.</div><div><br /></div><div>One final graphic is one I created for outdoor track and field. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFrQdypprnzRV81IKGG4C_4Kma6qGPSM7p4i31NQemkQUlyeypIxGTtHWVmtpTrxMtitTLQ9KQzn_ueMkJ18WeB6QqhbXWn405BBhweeg3nNnBKzcadFmB8PtgCBLjbkcb3xQqgN3tHJh4BddvdFQLMtYVg-f9xbgeqqkBfCP3eIxukwEuSw/s359/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%205.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="271" data-original-width="359" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFrQdypprnzRV81IKGG4C_4Kma6qGPSM7p4i31NQemkQUlyeypIxGTtHWVmtpTrxMtitTLQ9KQzn_ueMkJ18WeB6QqhbXWn405BBhweeg3nNnBKzcadFmB8PtgCBLjbkcb3xQqgN3tHJh4BddvdFQLMtYVg-f9xbgeqqkBfCP3eIxukwEuSw/w345-h261/NCAA%20womens%20dynasties%205.JPG" width="345" /></a></div><div><br /></div>In that sport, Louisiana State University (LSU) won 11 straight NCAA team titles from 1987-1997. The Tigers added three more (2000, 2003, and 2008) for a total of 14, but have not won a championship since.<div><br /></div><div>These are not all of the women's college sports dynasties one can find. Because I did not want to spend the rest of the day making graphics, however, I decided to summarize the remaining ones in words.</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Five schools have dominated women's gymnastics: Georgia (10 NCAA team titles, including five straight from 2005-2009); Utah (nine titles, including the first five, 1982-1986); UCLA (seven titles), and Alabama (six titles). One school that doesn't have as many titles as these other ones but has several <i>recent</i> ones is Oklahoma (2016, 2017, 2019, and 2022, along with a co-championship in 2014).</li><li>In women's cross-country, Villanova has captured nine NCAA team championships (including six straight from 1989-1994). Stanford and Brigham Young University (BYU) have each won five.</li><li>Stanford has triumphed 11 times in NCAA women's swimming (including five in a row from 1992-1996 and three straight from 2017-2019). Other leading teams in the pool include Texas (seven titles, with five straight from 1984-1988), Georgia (seven), Auburn (five), and California (four).</li><li>Stanford has also dominated women's tennis (to a similar extent as North Carolina in soccer). The Cardinal has won 20 team tennis titles (including six in a row from 1986-1991 and seven of 10 from 1997-2006). Florida has won seven titles.</li><li>Women's golf teams have had a diabolical time dealing with the Arizona State Sun Devils (eight NCAA championships, including five out of six from 1993-1998) and Duke Blue Devils (seven titles).</li><li>Finally, women's lacrosse has belonged to Maryland (14 NCAA titles, including seven straight from 1995-2001 and four between 2014 and 2019) and Northwestern (seven titles, all within the eight-year span from 2005-2012).</li></ul></div>
<p>Don't get me wrong. Oklahoma's recent stretch of softball success is a great accomplishment and worthy of all the accolades the Sooners have received. As you can see, however, several teams have won more overall titles and more in a concentrated period than has OU. Whether Sooner softball can ascend to the levels of North Carolina soccer, Stanford tennis, or UConn basketball is something only time will tell.</p><p>OU coach <a href="https://soonersports.com/sports/softball/roster/coaches/patty-gasso/638" target="_blank">Patty Gasso</a> just completed her 28th season and potentially could remain in her position for another 10 years or more, if she wanted. Different teams respond differently to change after a legendary coach retires (e.g., Tennessee hoops hasn't been the same without Pat Summitt, whereas UCLA softball has transitioned seamlessly from Sharron Backus to Sue Enquist to Kelly Inouye-Perez).</p><p>One interesting pattern you may have detected from the graphics is that even the greatest women's programs in a given sport do tend to slow down. LSU track and field has not won a team title since 2008, North Carolina soccer hasn't since 2012, Penn State volleyball since 2014, and UConn basketball since 2016, for example. That could also happen with Oklahoma softball; there's just no way to know at present.</p><div><p>---</p><p>*Before that, the governing body for women's sports was the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_for_Intercollegiate_Athletics_for_Women" target="_blank">Association for Intercollegiate Athletics for Women</a> (AIAW). The AIAW sponsored national collegiate championships in many women's sports starting around 1971 (results compilation <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_for_Intercollegiate_Athletics_for_Women_championships" target="_blank">here</a>), but AIAW predecessors were hosting championships even before 1971. The NCAA had been <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Collegiate_Athletic_Association" target="_blank">holding men's college sports championships</a> since 1921, but for 60 years never sponsored any women's championships. During the 1981-82 academic year, the NCAA made its foray into women's sports, with both the AIAW and NCAA sponsoring women's championships that year. As one <a href="https://andscape.com/features/forty-years-later-the-ncaas-takeover-from-the-aiaw-still-isnt-perfect/" target="_blank">article on the history</a> of the AIAW and NCAA's roles in women's college sports notes, "The NCAA had economic muscle" and the AIAW ceased operations shortly thereafter.</p><p>**Universities' academic years, of course, overlap two different calendar years. For example, the 2022-23 academic year begins in the fall of 2022 and ends in the spring of 2023. In the graphics, the year of a given championship represents when the final tournament or competition was held. For example, because the NCAA women's volleyball title match is held in December, the 2013 championship would have been held in December 2013. With basketball, on the other hand, the title game is held in April, so the 2013 championship would have been held in April 2013.</p></div>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-12263061955561903082022-03-08T12:00:00.004-08:002022-03-08T12:08:28.618-08:00Iowa State University Men Enter and Then Pull Out of an Extreme Cold-Shooting Spell<p>Those of you who follow Big 12 men's basketball closely probably noticed the score of Iowa State's home-court loss to Oklahoma State last Wednesday night (March 2): <a href="https://cyclones.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2021-22/oklahoma-state/boxscore/14599 " target="_blank">53 to 36</a>. Yes, the Cyclones scored 36 points for the entire game (20 and 16 in the first and second half). ISU did have some low-scoring games earlier in conference play (<a href="https://cyclones.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2021-22/tcu/boxscore/14589" target="_blank">44 vs. TCU</a> on January 22 and <a href="https://cyclones.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2021-22/texas/boxscore/14592" target="_blank">41 at Texas</a> on February 5), so maybe an occasional cold-shooting game is not a total surprise. However, the Cyclones appeared to put their rim-clanging performances behind them, as in their five games leading into last Wednesday, they scored 69, 54, 75, 84, and 74 points (<a href="https://cyclones.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule" target="_blank">game-by-game log</a>).</p><p>Then, fresh off of its 36-point performance, Iowa State took the court last Saturday in Waco and promptly fell behind Baylor 29-4. "Here we go again," probably would have been Cyclone fans' reaction. Yet, ISU staged an amazing (although ultimately fruitless) comeback, narrowing their 25-point deficit to only 10 at the half (39-29) and actually <a href="https://cyclones.com/news/2022/3/5/mens-basketball-cyclones-fight-back-before-falling-at-no-4-baylor.aspx" target="_blank">taking the lead 60-58</a> in the second half. Baylor had the last burst of energy, however, winning 75-68</p><p>In the graphic below, I used the <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay/_/gameId/401368437" target="_blank">play-by-play sheet</a> of Saturday's Iowa State-Baylor game to capture the teams' first-half shooting at a glance. I emphasize the first half, as that is where ISU's freezing cold start and the bulk of its comeback occurred. Four things are going on in the graph: </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The teams: ISU above the center divider, Baylor below.</li><li>Time on the clock, from 20:00 minutes on the left to 0:00 on the right, with each shot denoted by a little bar or circle approximately when it occurred.</li><li>The value of a shot, with three-point attempts being three units long, midrange jumpers being two units long, layups/dunks/tips being one unit long, and free throws depicted by dots.</li><li>Whether the shots were made. Made shots are depicted in bright colors (ISU in red, Baylor in green), whereas missed shots appear in grey.</li></ul><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrfZ6NqdEAoNDOVnDz6F3p7hNyJ6Xs_DGqmKkn9gM_URzM0DP7rVOkN1elfRKluSWpiC4inOU3YQoFzeTH5zWM3iRN_1H5RKIFpf5wEkGZhE8sNp_ixbtX2SGXkwuPEgn2gS2cp_SfpVoMQhiSSLaULf6FbxBabnwwNpcgwHaUKVafUNMD4A=s724" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="272" data-original-width="724" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrfZ6NqdEAoNDOVnDz6F3p7hNyJ6Xs_DGqmKkn9gM_URzM0DP7rVOkN1elfRKluSWpiC4inOU3YQoFzeTH5zWM3iRN_1H5RKIFpf5wEkGZhE8sNp_ixbtX2SGXkwuPEgn2gS2cp_SfpVoMQhiSSLaULf6FbxBabnwwNpcgwHaUKVafUNMD4A=w595-h223" width="595" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Here are some of the key points to take from the graph (on which you can click to enlarge):</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>For the first 12:00 minutes, there is very little red (a pair of made two-point baskets for ISU) and a lot of green (Baylor baskets). As I bracketed in the graph, ISU missed 14 straight shots, seven of them threes.</li><li>During the last 8:00, Iowa State scored 25 points (to Baylor's 10), which for the Cyclones was roughly three points per minute (projecting to 120 points in 40 minutes). Interestingly, ISU made up all this ground hitting only a pair of three-pointers. Scrapping for two-point baskets remains a viable way of staging a comeback. </li><li>In the second half of the Iowa State-Baylor game (not graphed), the Cyclones scored 39 points (more than in the entire Oklahoma State game three days prior). </li></ul><p></p>
Here are Iowa State's shooting percentages as a team in the recent Oklahoma State and Baylor games.<div><br /></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3" style="background-color: #ffcc00; border-collapse: collapse; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 0, 0); color: #990000; width: 90%;">
<tbody><tr>
<td><b>Opponent</b></td>
<td><b>Half</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><b>Shooting % on 2 PT</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><b>Shooting % on 3 PT</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oklahoma State</td>
<td>First</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.389 (7-for-18)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.100 (1-for-10)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Oklahoma State</td>
<td>Second</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.333 (6-for-18)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.143 (1-for-7)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Baylor</td>
<td>First</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.550 (11-for-20)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.182 (2-for-11)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Baylor</td>
<td>Second</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.714 (10-for-14)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.357 (5-for-14)</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><br /><div>
There you have it, a moderately deep dive into Iowa State's recent cold shooting. I never cease to be amazed at how quickly a team can enter a hot or cold spell and then just as quickly get out of it.</div>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-49769423938551896892020-08-28T17:41:00.003-07:002020-08-28T17:50:53.532-07:00Review of the "Other" Hot Hand Book<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxO5-fRyzFIYU6KiZ2V8mo2lcLU8Q4KtHblehyphenhyphen9qFxuVMfrelXBcI70gWBTPmPSkFU9M7z3Lzt1jUnLDorQUWLXJHzTZvE1iPyLj5UTIOJl-ezID8LhTYqDT9oZNnTMaQJPmUW/s460/cohen+hh+book.JPG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="308" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxO5-fRyzFIYU6KiZ2V8mo2lcLU8Q4KtHblehyphenhyphen9qFxuVMfrelXBcI70gWBTPmPSkFU9M7z3Lzt1jUnLDorQUWLXJHzTZvE1iPyLj5UTIOJl-ezID8LhTYqDT9oZNnTMaQJPmUW/w137-h205/cohen+hh+book.JPG" width="137" /></a></div>I have just finished reading <i style="text-align: left;">The Hot Hand</i><span style="text-align: left;">, a March 2020 release by </span><i style="text-align: left;">Wall Street Journal</i><span style="text-align: left;"> writer Ben Cohen. I had cornered the market on hot hand books from 2011-2020 (see image in right-hand column), but I welcome Mr. Cohen's book. Actually, I feel the two books are very different. Whereas mine was devoted entirely to sports and contained many statistical analyses, the new book delves into many areas outside of sports (e.g., art, the stock market, detective work) and, with one crucial exception (discussed later), is fairly light on mathematics, statistics, and probability.</span><div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;">I found Cohen's examination of where hot hands appear to exist (or not exist) to be fair and well-contextualized. That doesn't mean I agree with every conclusion in the book, but I think the overall tone was appropriate.</span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;">There are two main themes (as best I can tell) that tie together the sports and non-sports examples throughout the book. One is how the conventional wisdom on a given question can change at any point (e.g., is there or is there not a hot-hand effect beyond chance? is a particular painting truly from a great master or a fraud?), sometimes going back-and-forth multiple times. The second theme is how ongoing advances in technology (e.g., high-speed sky-cam videos of basketball games; x-rays of paintings) can contribute to changes in conventional wisdom.</span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;">From a sports perspective, the book ends with a one-two punch that argues for a hot hand in basketball shooting. One is a 2014 study by three extremely savvy Harvard undergraduates, who used sky-cam video data of NBA games to take into account, with great specificity, the difficulty of each shot (distance from the hoop, defensive presence, etc.), which the earliest studies of NBA shooting could not do (<a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014_SSAC_The-Hot-Hand-A-New-Approach.pdf" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2014/02/09/the-hot-hand-might-real-after-all/N8V34bGLWhPqk0Sx9yoHWI/story.html" target="_blank">here</a>). </span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;">The Harvard study found a roughly two percent improvement in future shooting success coming off of a couple of makes. In Cohen's words, "While the result itself was modest, the meaning of it was monumental" (p. 204). </span>I must demur. Over the past few decades, there has been a movement in psychology and related fields to emphasize <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00863/full" target="_blank">effect-sizes</a> -- how much impact one variable has on another or how strongly do two variables correlate. Hence, I'm inclined to assign modest importance to a finding of modest magnitude. The Harvard researchers themselves described their own results as a "small blaze" (p. 204).</div><div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;">Next to enter the scene were the young economists Josh Miller and Adam Sanjurjo. Miller and Sanjurjo's intellectual contribution -- discovering a counter-intuitive and heretofore undetected bias in seemingly basic statistical calculation -- is certainly formidable. Yet, as I <a href="https://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/08/new-study-of-nba-three-point-contest.html" target="_blank">wrote in 2015</a>, I find the practical magnitude of Miller and Sanjurjo's insight to be relatively modest, as well.</span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="text-align: left;">If a basketball shooter had a long-term track-record of 50% on three-pointers and then made a few in a row, the standard analytic approach <i>pre-Miller-Sanjurjo</i> would have been simply to assess whether the player hit shots at a greater clip than 50% for some number of shots after the initial set of consecutive makes. It turns out, however, that the proper baseline for judging success after a hit for a long-term 50% shooter is actually not 50%, but 42%. As Cohen succinctly puts it, "If a 50 percent shooter was shooting 50% [over the long term], he was actually beating the odds" (p. 227).</span></div><div><br /></div><div>The following graph from one of Miller and Sanjurjo's <a href="https://www.chapman.edu/research/institutes-and-centers/economic-science-institute/_files/ifree-papers-and-photos/surprised-by-the-gamblers-and-hot-hand-fallacies.pdf" target="_blank">working papers</a> conveys this idea visually (their derivations are far above my mathematical expertise). The graph is divided into three sections, one for when a player's true probability of success is .75 (top), one for when his or her true probability is .50 (middle), and one for when his or her true probability is .25 (bottom). The key thing to look at is the vertical discrepancy between a given dashed line (representing true probability) and the solid color lines. Each color line, which is a function of the total number (<i>n</i>) of shots in a sequence and the length (<i>k</i>) of a hot streak, tells us the new baseline to use in judging a player's future shooting success.</div><div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIyYhs0HR_xbvvhRcAg9hCzr-_VyJVQTXH1XlgjAPm1mg2KdF1x13knmX5Lo00AenPOIbLVCeBRCi4vgGf_1vvGMyFHFbFVaUdsoobivlrpczkJopBUZMOn3tD85gQ4mJRwLyf/s815/miller-sanjurjo+graph+annotated.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="553" data-original-width="815" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIyYhs0HR_xbvvhRcAg9hCzr-_VyJVQTXH1XlgjAPm1mg2KdF1x13knmX5Lo00AenPOIbLVCeBRCi4vgGf_1vvGMyFHFbFVaUdsoobivlrpczkJopBUZMOn3tD85gQ4mJRwLyf/w400-h271/miller-sanjurjo+graph+annotated.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div>A concrete example should help. I have annotated the graph to highlight a particular point on the top red curve: For a true .75 shooter, who has made five shots in a row, in a sequence of 20 shots. As shown at the end of the grey horizontal line I added from the target data-point to the <i>y</i>-axis, that player should be judged against a standard of .61 for whether he or she is "hot" over his or her next sequence of shots. Reiterating Cohen's explanation (above), a player who shot, say, .66 or .72 would be considered "hot" (i.e., above .61), even though the player's underlying true shooting percentage is .75.</div><div><br /></div><div>Miller and Sanjurjo note that "as <i>n</i> gets larger, the difference between expected conditional relative frequencies
and respective probabilities of success generally decrease..." In other words, the bias they demonstrated tends to diminish with an increasing number of shots and, under certain conditions, approaches zero. Note that, with a sequence of 100 shots and a <i>p</i> = .75 underlying probability, the colored lines start getting really close to the dashed line. Miller and Sanjurjo add, though, that if an athlete has compiled a very long streak (<i>k</i> = 5 straight hits, depicted above in red), even with a very long sequence (<i>n</i> = 100), a substantial bias can remain (e.g., for a <i>p</i> = .50 shooter, there is still a .15 bias, namely .50 on the dashed line, minus .35 on the red line).</div></div><div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div>One question I have about Miller and Sanjurjo's formulation is how it maps onto fan psychology. As we've seen, a 50% shooter who follows up a few straight hits with, say, a sequence of 47% success is mathematically hot (i.e., exceeding the adjusted baseline of 42%). Yet, I can't imagine fans following the reasoning (as correct as it is) that, "Hey, this 50% shooter is now hitting 47%. He (or she) is on fire!" </div><div><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div>A quibble I have with Cohen is his lack of discussion of sports other than basketball. Solid evidence for a sports hot hand has been around since 2004, in the case of professional bowling (<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4740922_Bowlers_Hot_Hands" target="_blank">Dorsey-Palmateer & Smith, 2004</a>). Cohen knew about this study, as it is included in his bibliography for <i>The Hot Hand</i> (p. 271).</div><div><br /></div><div>Hot hand research has now been going on for 35 years, dating from the famous Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) study. I can see research progressing in several directions, such as the aforementioned fan psychology and more research with actual game data. There is also research showing -- opposite of Miller and Sanjurjo -- that certain hot-hand estimation methods may <i>overstate</i> the extent of a hot hand (<a href="https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/149092/1/867158352.pdf" target="_blank">Cotton, McIntyre, & Price, 2016</a>). Thus, some of the analytic formulations may have to be reconciled. Lastly, Cohen's epilogue followed Tom Gilovich as he was conducting some new studies. I eagerly await what he has to report. In short, there's plenty of grist for the hot-hand research mill. I'm currently 57 years old, so I would have to live to 92 to see if hot-hand research makes it another 35 years!</div>alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-51177933662381017732019-05-29T21:12:00.001-07:002019-05-30T08:17:01.803-07:00New Study by Bill James on General Offensive StreakinessBill James has conducted and posted on his website a <a href="https://www.billjamesonline.com/streak_study_by_good_games_and_bad_games/">new study</a> of players' general offensive streakiness in baseball. Using a large sample of player-years (e.g., Lou Brock in 1967), James ranked a given player's games in a given year from highest to lowest runs-created. As James explains:<br />
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<i><span style="color: #cc0000;">Let us suppose that the player plays 160 games; we rank the 160 games 1 to 160 in order of the number of runs that he has created in each game, and we divide those into his 80 best games and his 80 worst games.</span></i><br />
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Labeling each of the 80 best games as "good" and each of the 80 worst games as "bad," James then looked at the player's games in chronological sequence, identifying consistent sequences (e.g., good-good-good or bad-bad) and inconsistent sequences (e.g., good-bad-good). Consistent sequences were given positive point-values, larger the longer the stretch, whereas inconsistent sequences were given negative values, more sharply negative the longer the stretch.<br />
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The results? "The average player in the study played 141 games, with an average of positive streak score of 139, and a negative streak score of 131.5." Stated differently, "There are 34,683 cases within the data in which a player followed a good game with a good game or a bad game with a bad game, and 33,626 cases in which the two games did not match—50.8% 'matches', 49.2% 'non-matches'."
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James characterizes the results as showing "some clustering of good games and bad games within a player’s season." The difference seems pretty small, though. Further, James acknowledges several possible extraneous factors that could affect clustering, including playing the same (good or bad) opponent multiple games in a series. I would focus more specifically on quality of pitching. If batters faced the mid-1990s Atlanta Braves with Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz pitching on successive days, you bet they would be highly likely to exhibit a clustering of subpar offensive games!alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-9275231004154838622019-04-09T19:23:00.001-07:002019-04-09T19:23:47.123-07:00Cronin Takes Over UCLA Basketball Program That Has One Post-Wooden National Title: A 44-Year Odyssey<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioo22MLcfgvtG7VbKcvZ-EvvfE8-7DyLFMbfjAeq-SeGag3jYptqP3c9oGCN6MrkwWrNjNkRlxFwtUaJDw0F6sqj7RRHy9aXa2rq5u1Ih_m7X1v_WAUn_osj_xmxD__qsoCSq4/s1600/image001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="380" data-original-width="570" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioo22MLcfgvtG7VbKcvZ-EvvfE8-7DyLFMbfjAeq-SeGag3jYptqP3c9oGCN6MrkwWrNjNkRlxFwtUaJDw0F6sqj7RRHy9aXa2rq5u1Ih_m7X1v_WAUn_osj_xmxD__qsoCSq4/s400/image001.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<o:p>Today's <a href="http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26478769/cronin-leaves-cincinnati-take-ucla-job">hiring of Mick Cronin</a> as UCLA men's basketball coach </o:p>provides an opportunity to dissect a cold streak in Bruin basketball, namely one national championship in the past 44 years, following a Golden Age of 10 titles in 12 years (1963-64 to 1974-75). Cronin <o:p>succeeds interim coach Murry Bartow, who succeeded Steve Alford, who was</o:p> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2018/12/31/ucla-fires-steve-alford-as-basketball-coach-after-6-seasons/38823463/">fired</a> this past New Year's Eve. </div>
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Alford's Bruin teams made the NCAA Sweet Sixteen three times in his five full seasons at the helm, a better record than <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mick_Cronin_(basketball)">Cronin's</a> in getting to this round. Developments in Westwood over the past four months naturally raise questions over the state of the program and the demandingness of the fan base.</div>
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Lurking behind any discussion of UCLA basketball, of course,
is the program’s success under the legendary coach John Wooden. It was under Wooden, who ended his <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/john-wooden-1.html">27-year
stint</a> on the Bruin bench with the aforementioned 10 national championships in 12
years. The tenth title (in 1974-75) came in particularly dramatic fashion, as
Wooden had announced shortly after UCLA’s win in that year’s national semifinal
that the upcoming championship game vs. Kentucky <a href="http://www.espn.com/classic/s/add_wooden_john.html">would be the last
game</a> he would ever coach.<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[<span style="color: red;">1</span>]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span> </div>
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The Bruins rarely lost at all in the early 1970s, compiling an <a href="https://www.dailynews.com/2010/12/19/game-by-game-the-ucla-winning-streak-from-1-to-88/">88-game
win streak</a> that ended in 1974. Further, a new <a href="http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26448643/where-does-virginia-rank-all-national-championship-teams">ESPN.com ranking</a> of all 81 NCAA men's hoops champions in history (the most recent entry being Virginia) placed Wooden-era UCLA teams in the 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 11th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 23rd, and 37th positions.</div>
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Presumably, few UCLA fans are today clamoring for Bruin
coaches to defy reality by winning 10 national titles in 12 years. However, that
seemed to be the standard in the mid-late 1970s. Wooden’s immediate successors,
with records decidedly better than Alford’s, felt the heat harshly and quickly
and left for other gigs. </div>
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Gene Bartow (father of Murry), the first post-Wooden UCLA coach, went
27-5 and made the Final Four in 1975-76, then went 24-5 in 1976-77. There was
no third year in Westwood for Bartow, as he left to become the founding coach
of a new program at the University of Alabama-Birmingham. </div>
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The next coach, former Bruin assistant Gary Cunningham, went
25-3 and 25-5 the next two years (making the Elite Eight in 1978-79), before leaving for a
small college in Oregon to launch what became a long career in Division I
athletic administration. According to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Los
Angeles Times</i> reporter Mark Heisler’s 1996 book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/They-Shoot-Coaches-Dont-Wooden/dp/0028608194/"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">They Shoot Coaches, Don't They? UCLA and the
NCAA Since John Wooden</i></a>, Cunningham had actually decided after <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">one</i> season to give it up, but secretly
told UCLA he would coach one more year to give the school more time to find its
next coach. </div>
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Former UCLA and NBA player Keith Erickson, in his book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Champions-Again-Keith-Erickson/dp/0785275193/"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Champions Again!</i></a> about the 1994-95
Bruin team, simply noted that Wooden’s immediate successors “were at the wrong
place at the wrong time” (p. 66).</div>
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UCLA has now had <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/ucla/">10 head basketball
coaches</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in the 44 seasons since
Wooden retired, including the interim skipper Murry Bartow. Only once since Wooden’s retirement has UCLA won a national tile, in 1995 under Jim Harrick.
Post-Wooden Bruin teams have appeared in three national championship games
(1980, 1995, and 2006) and six Final Fours (1976, 1980, 1995, 2006, 2007, and
2008). Only one of the 10 coaches, Ben Howland, brought back a sense of
sustained success (albeit without a national championship), leading the Bruins
to three consecutive Final Four appearances in 2006, 2007, and 2008. </div>
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The questions concerning the past four decades of UCLA basketball abound.
In the following sections, I raise and attempt to answer these questions as
best I can.</div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Why hasn’t UCLA produced at a higher level over the past 44 seasons? <o:p></o:p></i></b></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Coaching<o:p></o:p></i></div>
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Could UCLA’s failure to contend for more post-Wooden national
championships stem from a lack of coaching talent? One way to evaluate general
coaching ability – independent of how a given coach did at UCLA – is to examine
his coaching record in other jobs. First, a good coach, given sufficient time
to recruit and implement his or her system, should be able to win a sizable
majority of games just about anywhere. Second, UCLA offers many competitive
advantages in recruitment and resources (e.g., championship legacy, location in
a large city, nice campus, good academics), so coaches’ records in their non-UCLA
head coaching jobs arguably offer a more accurate picture of their underlying
abilities absent these advantages. Of the nine post-Wooden coaches (excluding Murry Bartow), seven held head-coaching jobs at other schools. The
following table shows their records.</div>
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<b>How UCLA’s
Post-Wooden Coaches* Fared at Other Places<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>Coach (UCLA Years)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<td style="background: #9CC2E5; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent5; mso-background-themetint: 153; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b>Other Jobs<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>Record
(Non-UCLA)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/gene-bartow-1.html">Gene
Bartow</a> (1975-76 – 1976-77)<u><span style="color: #0563c1; mso-themecolor: hyperlink;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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Memphis, Illinois, UAB</div>
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440-243 (.644)</div>
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<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/gary-cunningham-1.html">G. Cunningham</a> (1977-78 – 1978-79)<u><span style="color: #0563c1; mso-themecolor: hyperlink;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
---</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in;" valign="top" width="144"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
---</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 184.25pt;" valign="top" width="246"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/larry-brown-1.html">Larry
Brown</a> (1979-80 – 1980-81)</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Kansas, SMU</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in;" valign="top" width="144"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
220-83 (.726)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 184.25pt;" valign="top" width="246"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/larry-farmer-1.html">Larry
Farmer</a> (1981-82 – 1983-84</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Weber State, Loyola-Chicago</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in;" valign="top" width="144"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
105-156 (.402)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 184.25pt;" valign="top" width="246"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/walt-hazzard-1.html">Walt
Hazzard</a> (1984-85 – 1987-88)</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
---</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in;" valign="top" width="144"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
---</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 184.25pt;" valign="top" width="246"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/jim-harrick-1.html">Jim
Harrick</a> (1988-89 – 1995-96)</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Pepperdine, Rhode Island, Georgia</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in;" valign="top" width="144"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
279-172 (.619)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 184.25pt;" valign="top" width="246"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/steve-lavin-1.html">Steve
Lavin</a> (1996-97 – 2002-03)</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
St. John’s</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in;" valign="top" width="144"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
92-72 (.561)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 184.25pt;" valign="top" width="246"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/ben-howland-1.html">Ben
Howland</a> (2003-04 – 2012-13)</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
N. Arizona, Pitt, Mississippi State</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in;" valign="top" width="144"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
233-147 (.613)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 184.25pt;" valign="top" width="246"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/steve-alford-1.html">Steve
Alford</a> (2013-14 – mid 2018-19)</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 175.5pt;" valign="top" width="234"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Missouri State, Iowa, New Mexico</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF66; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.5in;" valign="top" width="144"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
385-206 (.651)</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><i> *Excluding 2019 interim coach Murry
Bartow.<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One can safely say that these coaches represented a range of
abilities and accomplishments, but some were clearly excellent coaches. Larry
Brown, who later won an NCAA title at Kansas and an NBA title with Detroit,
would have to be considered among the all-time coaching greats <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">on the court</i>. However, his wanderlust –
having coached nine NBA and three college teams – and <a href="https://thebiglead.com/2015/09/29/larry-brown-smu-cheating-violations/">record
of NCAA rules violations</a> detract from his accomplishments. Harrick and
Howland, two of UCLA’s better post-Wooden coaches in terms of postseason
success, also had various off-the-court problems (<a href="https://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-xpm-2003-11-17-0311170695-story.html">Harrick</a>,
<a href="https://www.si.com/vault/2012/03/05/106166530/not-the-ucla-bruins-way">Howland</a>).<br />
<br />
The remaining coaches were, to my knowledge, free of scandal. Gene Bartow had
an impressive overall record, not only taking UCLA to the Final Four, but also
leading Memphis State (now just Memphis) to the 1973 national-title game, where
it lost to UCLA. Cunningham showed a lot of promise in his brief coaching
stint, but his career interests lie elsewhere. Lavin and Alford were solid,
although each enjoyed only modest postseason success (Lavin led one team, UCLA
in 1997, to the Elite Eight, whereas no Alford team at any Division I school
went beyond the Sweet Sixteen).<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For the most part, then, the quality of the post-Wooden UCLA
coaches was high. Instead, the real problem seems to be <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">instability</i> on the Bruin sideline, both in terms of the frequent
turnover of coaches and the off-the-court problems with which some of them were
involved. For whatever reason, coaching stints of <a href="https://herosports.com/college-basketball/longest-tenured-coaches-division-1-mens-basketball-byby">20
years or longer</a> at the same school are quite rare today. Within power
conferences, only Jim Boeheim, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo fit the bill.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Someone who was never far from the revolving door of
post-Wooden UCLA coaching, but who never actually entered it, was former Bruin
assistant <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/denny-crum-1.html">Denny
Crum</a>. Crum, of course, had left UCLA after the 1971 tournament to begin a
30-year head-coaching run at Louisville that yielded two national titles (1980,
over UCLA in the final, and 1986) and six Final Four appearances. According to <a href="https://whatsbruinshow.com/2017/03/29/one-title-in-42-years/">one source</a>,
longtime UCLA athletic director J.D. Morgan disliked Crum and opted for Bartow,
who more resembled Wooden in background and personality. Crum claimed to have
been <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2006-02-06-0602060130-story.html">offered
the UCLA job</a> on three other occasions, but always declined it. Whether Crum
could have posted similar numbers as a head coach at UCLA as he did at
Louisville, we’ll never know. However, the Bruins’ repeated failure to land
Crum in the post-Wooden era could only have magnified Bruin fans’ frustration
at the dearth of championships. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Recruiting<o:p></o:p></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What about the players UCLA has recruited in the past 43
years? Centers Lew Alcindor (1966-67 to 1968-69; later known as Kareem
Abdul-Jabbar) and Bill Walton (1971-72 to 1973-74) led the Bruins to five out
of six possible national titles during their varsity playing careers, in an era
of freshman ineligibility. That both of these all-time greats completed their
respective senior seasons<a href="file:///C:/Users/areifman/Dropbox/sports%20blogging%20tweeting%20etc/basketball%20(misc)/UCLA%20post-Wooden.htm#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[<span style="color: red;">2</span>]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
is noteworthy, however, in terms of maintaining a dynasty. How many more NCAA
titles would Michigan State have won, for example, if Magic Johnson hadn’t
turned pro after his sophomore year?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
UCLA has had some very good post-Wooden players stay four
years – such as <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/ed-obannon-1.html">Ed
O’Bannon</a>, who led the Bruins to the 1995 title -- but many haven’t. And no
Bruin player has had quite the impact of Alcindor or Walton. How good <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">has</i> UCLA’s on-court talent been over the
past 44 years, relative to that of other schools?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
The closest current program to the John Wooden-era Bruins,
in my view, is Duke. Krzyzewski, with <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/mike-krzyzewski-1.html">39
years on the Blue Devils’ bench</a>, gives Duke a similar iconic coaching
figure to Wooden. Coach K has won fewer national titles (five) than has Wooden,
but has the same number of Final Four appearances (12) as him. Whatever one
thinks of this UCLA-Duke comparison, it is safe to say that bringing in Duke’s
caliber of players would improve virtually any school’s chances of contending
for national championships.<br />
<br />
How has UCLA’s talent over the past 43 years
compared to Duke’s? Using Sports-Reference.com’s <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/recruit_rankings_2018.html">Recruiting
Services Consensus Index (RSCI) Rankings</a> (which go back to 1998-99),
supplemented by my own personal stack of annual preseason college-basketball
magazines<a href="file:///C:/Users/areifman/Dropbox/sports%20blogging%20tweeting%20etc/basketball%20(misc)/UCLA%20post-Wooden.htm#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[<span style="color: red;">3</span>]</span></span></span></span></a>
(going back to 1989-90), I devised a system to assign an overall yearly
recruitment-quality score to UCLA and to Duke. I awarded three points for each
Top 10 national recruit a school landed, two points for each recruit ranked
11-25, and one point for each recruit ranked 26-50. As an example, an entering
class of two Top 10 players, a player ranked 11-25 and one ranked 26-50 would
yield nine points. Results are shown in the three following graphs (which you can click to enlarge).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3AiSCHv97q-ZiAaapAHfJpOf1Vp7pOMIzp7KeKPI4ZFFCMwbx97wBJrE4873tYFS8eXH-I2fvUANlQt540s8YvWls93I02TQ3dQGM2G28ToHlHDUsFIzApocgsAn3AtMfkspK/s1600/image002.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="359" data-original-width="621" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3AiSCHv97q-ZiAaapAHfJpOf1Vp7pOMIzp7KeKPI4ZFFCMwbx97wBJrE4873tYFS8eXH-I2fvUANlQt540s8YvWls93I02TQ3dQGM2G28ToHlHDUsFIzApocgsAn3AtMfkspK/s400/image002.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /><!--[endif]--></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The upper-left graph shows UCLA’s year-to-year recruiting
success, going back as far as I had data. The players who entered in the
Bruins’ two best recruiting classes are listed in this graph. As is evident,
there is a lot of year-to-year fluctuation in quality of recruiting classes
(light-blue curve). These ups-and-downs are not necessarily unexpected, as
bringing in a large class of top players one year may leave few, if any,
available scholarships the next year. To glean more general or “smoothed”
trends, I used <a href="https://flowingdata.com/2010/03/29/how-to-make-a-scatterplot-with-a-smooth-fitted-line/">loess
regression</a> (yellow line for UCLA).<br />
<br />
The upper-right graph presents the same kind
of curves for Duke. Finally, the bottom graph compares Duke’s and UCLA’s
smoothed curves. Although the magnitude of the difference has varied, the Blue
Devils have consistently out-recruited the Bruins over the past 30 years.
UCLA’s instability in coaching may well have played a large role here.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Does UCLA’s post-Wooden ledger of six Final Four appearances and one
national title represent a gross underperformance relative to what could
reasonably be expected? <o:p></o:p></i></b><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Only six schools have more Final Four appearances than UCLA
in the post-Wooden era: North Carolina (14), Duke (13; one under Bill Foster <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Forevers-Team-John-Feinstein/dp/0671730134/">in
1978</a> plus Krzyzewski’s 12), Kentucky (10), Kansas (9), Michigan State (9),
and Louisville (7). Michigan is tied with UCLA at 6.<a href="file:///C:/Users/areifman/Dropbox/sports%20blogging%20tweeting%20etc/basketball%20(misc)/UCLA%20post-Wooden.htm#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn4;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[<span style="color: red;">4</span>]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>
Though not making Final Fours at a Woodenesque level, Bruin teams have not
exactly been doing badly over the past 44 years. Given UCLA’s six Final Four
appearances post-Wooden, is the school’s one national title lower than would be
expected? To address this question, I plotted for each school with at least one Final Four appearance from 1976-2019, its number of Final Four appearances (<i>x</i>-axis) against its number of national titles (<i>y</i>-axis).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVt_NVH3uiddRoS-yuWqELSqLlNoMkIT4pRQEN43GXpswKWEjUhHDFiwBVNIDyCoUrtCRVEpUEtq_W4fCODAYVi5OPpmP_wIVEBZe_M0F7Ttjr_8cfamkcFN4vZ_IOtYBmP6K6/s1600/final+4+%2526+titles.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="758" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVt_NVH3uiddRoS-yuWqELSqLlNoMkIT4pRQEN43GXpswKWEjUhHDFiwBVNIDyCoUrtCRVEpUEtq_W4fCODAYVi5OPpmP_wIVEBZe_M0F7Ttjr_8cfamkcFN4vZ_IOtYBmP6K6/s320/final+4+%2526+titles.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /><!--[endif]--></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Based on the past 44 years, the best-fit line in the above
graph gives us the rough estimate that, for every three appearances in the
Final Four, a team should win one national title. UCLA has made six
appearances, so by this standard, the Bruins should have won two national
titles. UCLA is therefore underperforming in this sense, but not egregiously
so.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">To what extent were Bruin fans judging Alford like UCLA’s immediate
post-Wooden coaches?<o:p></o:p></i></b><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In retrospect, many Bruin fans will probably find it
ridiculous that Gene Bartow, with a 51-10 (.836) record and Final Four
appearance at UCLA, felt the need to find a job elsewhere after two years in
Westwood. Cunningham, with his 50-8 (.862) record, sincerely seemed to prefer
administration over coaching, but with greater fan support at UCLA, he might
have stuck around longer.<br />
<br />
Fans’ harsh judgment of winning coaches who fail to
replicate the success of legendary predecessors is not unique to Bruin hoops.
Nebraska fired football coaches <a href="http://www.espn.com/college-football/news/story?id=1674143">Frank Solich</a>
(58-19, .753, from 1998-2003) and <a href="http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/11958376/nebraska-cornhuskers-fire-bo-pelini">Bo
Pelini</a> (67-27, .713, from 2008-2014), after they could not win national
championships like former Cornhusker coaches Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alford’s winning percentage at UCLA was .663, well below
Bartow’s and Cunningham’s. Yet, Alford received five and one-half years to
prove himself. Alford <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/steve-alford-was-never-a-good-fit-at-ucla-and-is-the-latest-coach-who-failed-to-meet-expectations-of-bruins-fans/">had
his critics among the fans</a> throughout his Bruin tenure, but few presumably
wanted him out after just two years. In that sense, Alford was not treated as
harshly as Bartow and Cunningham.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
A writer on one website covering UCLA sports argued strenuously that Bruin fans were not unreasonable in their judgment of Alford,
but rather they simply felt the program was <a href="https://gojoebruin.com/2019/01/02/ucla-basketball-bruins-fans-not-unreasonable-expectations/">no
longer “relevant”</a> in national college basketball circles and a new coach
would be needed to reinstate UCLA to the elite level.<br />
<br />
In the post-Wooden era,
UCLA has shown short bursts of national power (1995, 2006-2008) and, based on
Final Four appearances, has still been one of the top programs in the country
over the past 44 years. Perennial national contention as in the Wooden years
seems a stretch at this point. Making the bursts of success more frequent and
longer, and keeping the droughts shorter, is more plausible, but won’t be easy
for new coach Cronin at UCLA.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">With all the changes in the game over the past 40+ years – especially
expansion of the tournament field and one-and-done players – does it even make
sense to speak of college basketball dynasties?<o:p></o:p></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
The above analyses and discussion accept the premise that a
contemporary college basketball program can succeed, if not at John Wooden’s
level, at least at stringing together a few consecutive national championships.
In fact, two schools have won back-to-back titles post-Wooden: Duke in 1990-91
and 1991-92, and Florida in 2005-06 and 2006-07. An additional two have won
championships in two out of three seasons: Kentucky in 1995-96 and 1997-98
(with an overtime loss in the title game in between) and Villanova in 2015-16
and 2017-18.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So yes, stretches of three (or perhaps more) years of
consistent national-championship contention are still achievable. These would
probably satisfy most of today’s UCLA fans. However, changes in the game over
the past four decades make such stretches highly unlikely, in my view. For most
of John Wooden’s days at UCLA, there were <a href="http://iml.jou.ufl.edu/projects/spring07/harkins/history.html">around two
dozen teams</a> in the NCAA tournament field and only one team per conference
could get in. In 1970-71, UCLA’s crosstown rival USC finished 24-2 (both losses
to UCLA) and was perhaps the second-best team in the country, but <a href="https://thesportsarchivesblog.com/2011/04/02/the-sports-archives-%E2%80%93-1971-usc-24-2-misses-ncaa-basketball-tournament/">did
not get in</a>. With many strong teams being excluded from the NCAA field back
then, things were certainly easier for those who made the field.<br />
<br />
As the field
grew over the years to its current 68 schools, increasingly large numbers of
teams from the power conferences were getting in. If teams get hot in March, it
didn’t matter what their regular season record was – Exhibit A being the 2010-11
UConn men, who finished 9<sup>th</sup> in their conference and <a href="http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2011/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=6294241">still
won the national title</a>. In the aforementioned ESPN.com listing of all-time best men's NCAA-championship teams, this UConn squad ranked 59th.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
The second major change from Wooden’s time is, of course,
the one-and-done phenomenon. Quite simply, with the best players nationally
going to the NBA after one season, it is very difficult – if not impossible –
for most programs to develop the continuity needed for a dynastic run. <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/kentucky/2012.html">Kentucky
in 2011-12</a> and <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/2015.html">Duke in
2014-15</a> won national titles with frosh-laden teams, but no team has done so since.. <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/lonzo-ball-1.html">Lonzo
Ball</a> led UCLA to a 31-5 record and Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2016-17, but
left after that one year.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Conclusion<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
In the months leading to Cronin's hiring, my impression was that UCLA fans would want an established head
coach with a better NCAA postseason track record than Alford’s, someone who can
produce a sustained run of national contention like Howland did, but without
the team dynamics spiraling out of control. Cronin is an established head coach, but his NCAA postseason record is not better than Alford's. There's obviously no way to know at this point whether Cronin can lead the Bruins to national contention.<br />
<br />
Someone with Final Four experience
would have been especially coveted, but Cronin lacks this. One reported candidate for the Bruin job, Tennessee's Rick Barnes, <a href="http://www2.kusports.com/news/2003/apr/05/texas_at_a/">took Texas to the Final Four</a> in 2003, but he <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/tennessee-coach-rick-barnes-turns-down-ucla-offer-gets-new-deal-with-volunteers/">decided to stick with the Volunteers</a>. In fact, UCLA has only once been able in the post-Wooden
era to hire a coach who took a previous school to the Final Four. Gene
Bartow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<br />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[<span style="color: red;">1</span>]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span>
The mini-banner pictured above, which listed all UCLA basketball championships
to date, was given out to all fans at a Bruins game in the early 1980s. I was a
student there at the time. The 1978 title was in women’s basketball, as denoted
by the “W.”</div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[<span style="color: red;">2</span>]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span>
Walton might theoretically have been able to enter the NBA early under the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/sports/basketball/spencer-haywood-rule-nba-draft-underclassmen.html">1971
Spencer Haywood ruling</a>, but he did not.</div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[<span style="color: red;">3</span>]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span>
Mostly from the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Sporting News</i>, but
also from <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Athlon</i>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Lindy’s</i>, and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Street and Smith’s</i>.</div>
</div>
<div id="ftn4" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">[<span style="color: red;">4</span>]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span>
Vacated appearances (e.g., <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/20/587219151/louisville-must-vacate-its-2013-national-title-after-ncaa-upholds-ruling">Louisville
in 2012 and 2013</a>) are not removed from these totals.</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-62733836543174882942019-01-25T18:23:00.000-08:002019-01-26T06:04:01.915-08:00Harden-ManiaHouston Rockets guard James Harden has set the sports world ablaze as a one-man scoring machine. Wednesday night in New York, Harden scored 61 points, <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/recap?gameId=401071383">extending his streak</a> of scoring at least 30 points to 21 consecutive contests (<a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3992/james-harden">game-by-game log</a>). It is the fourth longest such streak in NBA history, with only Wilt Chamberlain recording longer streaks of scoring 30+ points (65, 31, and 25 games). The Rockets host Toronto tonight, as Harden seeks to keep lighting up the scoreboard.<br />
<br />
Despite all the attention Harden has been getting, one can question the value of his streak for at least three reasons. First, prodigious scoring averages don't necessarily equate to championships. In fact, Wilt didn't start winning titles (in 1966-67 with the Sixers and 1971-72 with the Lakers) until his <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/chambwi01.html">points per game came down and his shooting percentage went up</a> (perhaps suggesting that he and his coaches became more selective in the shots he would take). Also, do you remember <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01.html">big scorer Carmelo Anthony</a> leading the Nuggets or Knicks to the NBA title? Neither do I. Houston is <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/hou">15-6 over the 21 games</a> of Harden's 30+ streak (although only 5-5 over its last 10), so it would be hard to argue that the streak was hurting the team.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Second, has Harden really elevated his performance -- as the concept of a momentum-based hot hand would require -- or are his high-scoring nights more the product of shot <i>volume</i> than efficiency? With injuries to teammates <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/rockets/article/Reticent-about-injury-Rockets-Chris-Paul-13501101.php">Chris Paul</a> and <a href="http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-news-clint-capela-injury-update-rockets-c-undergoes-successful-surgery-thumb-back-after-all-star-break/1gov8v4c5tcth1ajjryk5r7irk">Clint Capela</a>, Harden has been launching shots at an unprecedented rate for him. So far this season, Harden has attempted 23.9 shots per game from the floor. Previously, his highest <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html">single-season shots-per-game average</a> was 20.1 (in 2017-18).<br />
<br />
Looking at Harden's three-point attempts and success rate over the past 10 games (from most to least recent), one finds the following: 5-20 (.250), 6-13 (.462), 8-19 (.421), 5-19 (.263), 6-15 (.400), 1-17 (.059), 8-16 (.500), 6-16 (.375), 6-15 (.400), and 5-17 (.294). The statistics are mixed, but I would say volume is playing a large role in Harden's scoring.<br />
<br />
Further pertaining to Harden's large role in the Rockets' offense, an ESPN.com 5-on-5 discussion asks "<a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25844231/5-5-james-harden-possibly-keep-up">Can James Harden possibly keep this up?</a>" This article discusses Harden's high rate of unassisted shots and high <a href="https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/usage-rate/">usage rate</a>.<br />
<br />
Third, will it hurt Houston over the long term to have Harden playing as great a number of minutes as he currently is? A FiveThirtyEight article asks "<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-james-hardens-hot-streak-burn-him-out/">Will James Harden’s Hot Streak Burn Him Out?</a>" This article documents, among other things, that Harden is tied for the lead league in minutes per game at 37; his <a href="https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/effective-field-goal-percentage-efg/">effective field-goal percentage</a> has declined in the fourth quarter of games over the past three seasons; and teams with one player carrying a heavy usage load tend not to do well in the playoffs.<br />
<br />
The most recent <i>Sports Illustrated</i> magazine features a lengthy article on Harden and the Rockets. Houston coach Mike D'Antoni is quoted to the effect that he has no choice on playing Harden such heavy minutes. Given the Rockets' slow start to the season, "We gotta win games... We can't... come in eighth [in the Western Conference] and get knocked out in the first round."<br />
<br />
Of course, Harden's scoring streak may just be an oddity, brought about by the absence of some of the Rockets' leading players. It will be interesting to see what happens when they come back!alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-33732016936843247672018-12-24T22:09:00.000-08:002018-12-25T23:11:19.564-08:00Streaks in the City (4): BostonFor a large chunk of the 20th century, Boston had one professional sports team that, despite several close calls, could not win a championship. It had another that <i>couldn't lose</i> in the final round. Once the 21st century rolled around, the city saw a third team dominate its sport.<br />
<br />
The first team being alluded to is the <b>Red Sox</b>, who famously went without a World Series championship from 1918-2004, losing four World Series -- all in seven games -- during the drought. There were additional pre-World Series heartbreaks for the BoSox, as well, namely losing the American League title <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/2012/10/2/3444860/this-day-in-yankees-history-yankees-stun-red-sox-to-steal-1949-pennant">by one game</a> to the Yankees in 1949 after dropping games on the last two days of the season in the Bronx*; the <a href="https://awfulannouncing.com/films/si-tv-documentary-14-back-1978-yankees-red-sox.html">blown 14-game lead</a> in the 1978 AL East standings, leading to a one-game playoff for the division title, which went New York's way on a famous homer by "<a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/sportscenter/post/_/id/83665/this-day-in-sports-bucky-dent-earns-a-new-middle-name">Bucky (Bleeping) Dent</a>"; and a <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/game?gameId=231016110">blown four-run lead</a> to the Yankees in Game 7 of the 2003 AL Championship Series (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/">season-by-season log</a>).<br />
<br />
The second team referenced in the opening paragraph is the <b>Celtics</b>. Led by legendary center Bill Russell, who was there the whole time, and an assortment of other NBA greats who were there either at the front or back end of the Celtics' dynasty, Boston won an amazing <a href="http://www.nba.com/history/top-moments/1969-russell-celtics-dynasty">11 NBA titles in the 13 seasons</a> from 1956-57 to 1968-69. The following chart (on which you can click to enlarge) shows the championship years (those with a solid green heading) and the future Hall of Famers on each team.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3vKw7FTf2CWsidWhVJTVqGOn__SNgOw9wgdbQr8Vy4JE_FZoXpERG7csaAR2yls9_lc2p7yHGEmIMTcCptC2lwtmglnQt3eEOwACfuMyx6d7RXUtzz0B-ihK_-ix4TenEHUij/s1600/celtics+HOFers+during+dynasty.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="1033" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3vKw7FTf2CWsidWhVJTVqGOn__SNgOw9wgdbQr8Vy4JE_FZoXpERG7csaAR2yls9_lc2p7yHGEmIMTcCptC2lwtmglnQt3eEOwACfuMyx6d7RXUtzz0B-ihK_-ix4TenEHUij/s400/celtics+HOFers+during+dynasty.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
The Celtics were 5-0 in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NBA_champions">NBA finals decided in seven games</a> and <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs2006/columns/story?columnist=shouler_ken&id=2453844">10-0 in Game 7's</a> adding in pre-final playoff rounds during the 13-year span.** While winning eight straight NBA titles from 1958-59 to 1965-66, Boston claimed 17 straight playoff series wins.<br />
<br />
The fortunes of the Red Sox and Celtics have reversed a bit in recent decades. Just this past fall, the Red Sox captured their fourth World Series title in 15 years (2004, 2007, 2013, and 2018). The <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/bos">2018 BoSox</a> won 108 games in the regular season, beat two 100+ win teams in the AL playoffs (Yankees and Astros), and dispatched the defending NL champion Dodgers in the World Series. In no playoff series this year did Boston lose more than one game.<br />
<br />
Except for an eight-year stretch of sub-.500 seasons (1993-94 to 2000-01), the Celtics have been pretty good of late. They have made the playoffs in 14 of the previous 17 seasons and won the 2007-08 NBA title. However, the 2008 championship is the Celtics' only one in the past 32 years (<a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/">season-by-season log</a>).<br />
<br />
As seen in the preceding paragraphs, the Celtics and Red Sox have won a bunch of titles. And we haven't even gotten to the NFL's <b>New England Patriots</b> (the third team alluded to in the opening paragraph)! The Pats have won five Super Bowls in the past 17 years (2001, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2016) and been in three others since 2000.<br />
<br />
Despite all of New England's Super Bowl success, however, it may be the one that got away that sticks in fans' minds. In the 2007 season, the Patriots went 16-0, then added two playoff wins to reach the 2008 Super Bowl at 18-0. New England was thus in position to equal -- in concept, if not numerically -- the undefeated regular-season and playoff run of the 1972 Miami Dolphins.*** As is well-known to football fans, however, the New York Giants -- aided by the miracle "helmet catch" in the closing minutes -- pulled off a 17-14 stunner to thwart the Patriots' bid for immortality. A decade later, football observers are <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/7/16107814/2007-new-england-patriots-tom-brady-randy-moss-wes-welker">still dissecting</a> the 2007 New England team.<br />
<br />
Beyond Super Bowl metrics, the 2018 New England squad has continued the winning tradition and racked up some impressive regular-season streaks for the franchise. According to an <a href="http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001003272/printable/patriots-clinch-10th-straight-afc-east-division-title">NFL.com article</a>, "In securing their 10th consecutive division title, the Patriots have become the first team in NFL history to earn 10 straight playoff appearances" and "New England also secured its 16th consecutive season with a double-digit win total -- tying the 49ers' mark from 1983-1998" (<a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/">season-by-season log</a>).<br />
<br />
The final Boston team among the big four North American pro sports is the NHL's Bruins. The B's (so dubbed for their logo) have won three Stanley Cups in what could be considered the modern era. The Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito-led Bruins captured Cups in 1969-70 and 1971-72. Boston has only hoisted the hardware once since then, 2010-11.<br />
<br />
Orr, a defenseman whose career was limited by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Orr">repeated injuries to his left knee</a>, had few superiors when playing at his best. On the advanced statistic of combined offensive and defensive point shares, Orr led the NHL four years straight and five years out of six, between 1969-70 and 1974-75. As a frame of reference, Wayne Gretzky led in this statistic seven straight years from 1980-81 to 1986-87 (<a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/ps_yearly.html">list of season leaders</a>). Orr's teammate Esposito put together a streak of six straight years <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/goals_yearly.html">leading the NHL in goals scored</a> (1969-70 to 1974-75).<br />
<br />
In conclusion, the last 20 years or so have been a good time to be a Boston sports fan, largely driven by the Patriots and Red Sox. The Celtics' run from the mid-1950s to the end of the 1960s is unlikely to be duplicated in the foreseeable future, but even if the C's merely contend for a title or two in the coming years, rooting for Boston's teams will be even more fun.<br />
<br />
---<br />
*Prior to 1969, there were no divisions within the American and National Leagues, and no pre-World Series playoff rounds. The team that finished the regular season with the best record in the AL and the team that did likewise in the NL went directly to the World Series.<br />
<br />
**Looking at all of the Celtics' <i>deciding games</i> during the 13-year span, the team was actually 11-0. Boston <a href="http://asternwarning.com/nba/rare-video-cincinatti-royals-v-boston-celtics-1966.html">beat Cincinnati 3-2</a> in a best-of-five opening-round series in 1965-66.<br />
<br />
***The NFL regular season was only 14 games long in 1972, so the Dolphins ended up 17-0 after the Super Bowl. The 2007 Patriots potentially could have finished 19-0.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-86853810707672191482018-05-28T08:13:00.001-07:002018-05-28T11:43:12.217-07:00Streaks in the City (3): Washington, DCThe Washington Capitals <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/the-stanley-cup-in-sight-alex-ovechkin-is-all-in-as-capitals-head-to-vegas/2018/05/27/ec5b6f76-61f4-11e8-a768-ed043e33f1dc_story.html?utm_term=.667cb49666ad">begin play</a> in the Stanley Cup finals tonight, seeking to end a 26-year title drought in the nation's capital within the four major North American sports (football, baseball, basketball, and ice hockey). If the Capitals hoist the Cup, it will be their first time in their 44-year history. The Caps made the finals <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/WSH/">once before</a>, 20 years ago in 1998, <a href="https://octopusthrower.com/2017/06/16/flashback-friday-detroit-red-wings-win-ninth-stanley-cup/">losing to Detroit</a>.<br />
<br />
The city's NFL team, which arrived in Washington in 1937 after a brief history in Boston, had a nice run in the 1980s and early 90s, winning the Super Bowl after the <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/">1982, 1987, and 1991 seasons</a>. The 1991 football championship (claimed in the 1992 Super Bowl) is the last major sports title won by a team from the nation's capital. Beyond 1991, Washington has made the NFL playoffs only six times, never winning more than one game in any postseason. Going way, way back, Washington captured pre-Super Bowl NFL titles in 1937 and 1942. These moments of triumph were followed a few years later by a 25-year string of playoff absences (1946-1970).<br />
<br />
On the hardwood, the city's <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/">NBA team</a> -- known as the Capital Bullets in 1973-74 after making a short move from Baltimore, the Washington Bullets (1974-1997)* and then Wizards (1997-on) -- has captured only one title, <a href="https://www.nba.com/wizards/wizards-celebrate-40th-anniversary-1978-bullets-championship">40 years ago</a>.<br />
<br />
On the baseball diamond, Washington has been home to three franchises: the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/">current team</a> known as the Nationals (moved to DC in 2005, after playing from 1969-2004 as the Montreal Expos), the organization known since 1972 as the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TEX/2018.shtml">Texas Rangers</a> (who had been the Washington Senators from 1961-1971), and the organization known since 1961 as the <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/">Minnesota Twins</a> (previously another incarnation of the Washington Senators, from 1901-1960). So with three franchises, collectively playing roughly 85 seasons in the nation's capital, how many World Series titles does Washington have to show for it? That would be <i>one</i>. Led by legendary pitcher Walter Johnson, the <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1386103-washington-nationals-remembering-the-1924-world-series">1924 Senators</a> won it all. There is a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Dryden">famous quote</a> long attached to Washington, DC, inspired by poor play early in the Senators' history: "First in war, first in peace, and last in the American League."<br />
<br />
A <i>Sports Illustrated</i> <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/13/washington-dc-sports-curse-nationals-wizards-redskins-capitals">article</a> from last October summarizes the city's sports frustrations succinctly: "The sheer number of distressing losses is staggering, especially in recent years, when the Nationals, Wizards and Capitals have all been contenders, at least within their conferences. The Caps and Nats in particular have a penchant for heartbreak, especially in deciding games..."<br />
<br />
To summarize, Washington, DC's baseball, basketball, football, and hockey teams have played a collective 250 seasons (roughly). During that time, these teams have combined for <i>seven</i> championships.**<br />
<br />
As the <i>SI</i> article notes, Washington's professional sports futility is not quite as bad, if one includes soccer in the mix: "For some reason, D.C. United is immune to the curse. The MLS side has won four MLS Cups, though not since 2004..."<br />
<br />
Also, at the college level, Georgetown University's men's basketball program under Coach John Thompson and star center (and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/08/sports/patrick-ewing-georgetown.html">current Georgetown coach</a>) Patrick Ewing made three Final Fours in the four years from 1981-82 to 1984-85, with a national title in 1983-84.<br />
<br />
Thus, although Washington sports fans have not seen major championships in recent decades, their teams are generally competitive.<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
*The renaming from Bullets to Wizards was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2018/04/14/my-friend-was-shot-how-an-assassins-bullets-in-israel-changed-an-nba-teams-name-in-d-c/?utm_term=.a56f6f7e4f3d">prompted by two developments</a>. One was the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, a friend of Bullets' owner Abe Pollin, and the other was DC's high rate of gun-related violence at the time.<br />
<br />
**Worth mentioning, at least as an historical footnote, are the barnstorming Washington Generals, variously described as the "perennial opponents" and "stooges" for the Harlem Globetrotters. As noted on the Generals' <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Generals">Wikipedia page</a>, "While the Globetrotters play tricks and spectacular displays of skill for the crowd, the Generals appear to attempt to play a 'normal' game of basketball... not interfering in the Globetrotters' tricks." The Generals are estimated to have lost over 16,000 times to the Globetrotters and beaten them somewhere between three and six times.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-67034903550111408692018-05-11T11:27:00.002-07:002018-05-11T11:28:16.556-07:00Warriors' Explosiveness<i>ESPN The Magazine</i> has an online article today on the Golden State Warriors' <a href="http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/23453684/nba-secret-warriors-dominance">offensive explosiveness</a>. Specifically, the article provides statistics on the Warriors' frequency of going on 10-0 and 15-0 runs, and examines whether there are distinguishing circumstances that seem to presage such runs and any effective strategies for opponents to short-circuit them (spoiler alert: time-outs don't seem to work).<br />
<br />
Back in 2015-16, I examined the explosiveness <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-importance-of-six-minute-scoring.html">of the Warriors</a> (which I defined as scoring 18 or more points in six-minute intervals) and of the <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2016/03/explosiveness-of-highly-seeded-ncaa.html">eight college teams</a> seeded No. 1 or No. 2 in March Madness (defined as scoring 15 or more points in five-minute intervals).<br />
<br />
One pattern I found for the Warriors in the final 6:00 of regulation play is that the further they were behind, the greater the offensive bursts they exhibited.<br />
<br />
The college teams' explosiveness did not seem to predict NCAA-tourney success. Xavier was the most explosive team among the eight I studied by a good margin (13 explosions in its last 10 regular-season games, with no other team higher than nine). The Musketeers also had the fastest tempo (possessions per game) among the eight teams. Despite these seeming advantages, however, Xavier was <a href="http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/recap?gameId=400872259">eliminated in the second round</a>.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-21660167104807689652018-04-12T13:13:00.000-07:002018-04-12T13:24:17.258-07:0076ers All-Time Hottest NBA Team Entering Playoffs by One Measure, but Not by AnotherWith Wednesday night's blowout regular-season-ending win over the Milwaukee Bucks, the Philadelphia 76ers <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/sports/csn/sixers/Sixers_rush_past_Bucks_into_playoffs_with_NBA_record_in_hand-479470003.html">set a record</a> for most consecutive wins entering the playoffs (16). By this measure, the 76ers could lay claim to being the all-time hottest NBA team entering the playoffs.<br />
<br />
However, by another measure of end-of-season hotness, which I <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/04/spurs-hotness-entering-nba-playoffs.html">developed in 2015</a>, Philly would not quite be at the top. As shown in the following graphic (which you can click to enlarge), the 2011-12 San Antonio Spurs were the hottest team in recent years entering the NBA playoffs. Note that my method uses only a team's final 10 games of the regular season (to make things comparable among teams), so one could argue that I am not doing justice to the full 16-game length of the Sixers' streak.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZWjIAMty_TGBAbzRvLrqNXlrhD16N8CIOcYsQhphKrn-M7wgU2qwi-2F0FoBS79qPCvf3WdtO3Tt9hE7ESqSr3jgVmBqLPiqXf6y3w4Z_-76EWDXNv_kwc7gREuSHZhlHpehe/s1600/76ers+hot+end.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="960" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZWjIAMty_TGBAbzRvLrqNXlrhD16N8CIOcYsQhphKrn-M7wgU2qwi-2F0FoBS79qPCvf3WdtO3Tt9hE7ESqSr3jgVmBqLPiqXf6y3w4Z_-76EWDXNv_kwc7gREuSHZhlHpehe/s400/76ers+hot+end.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Also, my measure takes into account the strength of the opposition and it is here, in my view, that Philly suffers. If you win a game, your hotness "temperature" is multiplied by [1 + opponent's winning percentage entering the game]. Thus, when the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors beat the .781 San Antonio Spurs with eight games left in the season, the Warriors' cumulative hotness value after the team's prior game would be multiplied by a hefty 1.781. In finishing out the season, this year's 76ers beat such weak teams as the Atlanta Hawks (twice, when the Hawks' winning percentages were .280 and .296), the Dallas Mavericks (.300), the Brooklyn Nets (.325), and the New York Knicks (.360). As a result, the Sixers' winning streak has included such anemic multipliers as 1.280, 1.296, 1.300, 1.325, and 1.360. Philly's toughest opponent in its last 10 games was Cleveland (.620), thus the Sixers' win over the Cavaliers gave Philly a multiplier of 1.620.<br />
<br />
Just as my system rewards wins over good teams more than wins over bad teams, it <i>punishes</i> losses to bad teams more severely than losses to good teams. After a loss, a team's previous cumulative temperature is multiplied straight up by the opponent's winning percentage entering the game. If you lose to a .750 team, your temperature to that point is multiplied by .750. If you lose to a .400 team, your temperature is multiplied by .400, which lowers your temperature much more.<br />
<br />
High hotness by this measure does not necessarily translate into playoff success, so Philadelphia fans should be OK with the fact that their team is not the hottest entering the playoffs in the last few years. Neither the 2011-12 nor 2014-15 editions of the San Antonio Spurs, which finished their respective regular seasons playing at pretty scorching levels, won the NBA championship (note that the 2015 Spurs entered their final game with a temperature of 52.43, but lost to a .543 New Orleans squad, roughly halving the Spurs' temperature to 28.47).<br />
<br />
Among recent NBA champions, only the 2017 Warriors had a high temperature (26.00). The three title-winners before them had uniformly low temps:<br />
<ul>
<li>The 2016 champion Cavaliers <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/cle/year/2016">lost four of their final 10 regular-season games</a>, yielding a microscopic temperature of 0.70 (the theoretical minimum would be zero, if a team lost its last 10 games to opponents who were all winless on the season, but no NBA team has ever gone winless).</li>
<li>The 2015 champion Warriors were <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/gs/year/2015">8-2 over their final 10 games</a> and had a relatively low temperature of 9.76. </li>
<li>The 2014 champion Spurs were <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/sa/year/2014"><span id="goog_865098205"></span>6-4 in their final 10</a> and had a tiny temperature of 1.29.</li>
</ul>
<div>
As I noted in my original entry <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/04/spurs-hotness-entering-nba-playoffs.html">introducing the metric</a>, the formula does not take account of factors such as home/road location of games, margin of victory/loss, or resting of players down the stretch. One could also argue that even a single loss (unless it's against a team playing .800 ball or thereabouts) is excessively influential in depressing a team's temperature. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
However, among teams who won all 10 of their final regular-season games -- the 2012 Spurs and 2018 Sixers -- I think the temperature metric properly reflects the more difficult opposition San Antonio encountered.</div>
alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-80712108449874738912018-02-18T09:55:00.002-08:002018-02-18T13:51:42.589-08:00Streaks in the City (2): Los AngelesI occasionally get asked how I got interested in streaks. There's no way to know for sure, but I suspect that growing up in Los Angeles as a basketball fan in the early 1970s was a factor. This era included both an 88-game winning streak by coach John Wooden's UCLA program and a 33-game roll by the L.A. Lakers. These remain as records for men's college basketball and the NBA, respectively.<br />
<br />
UCLA BASKETBALL<br />
<br />
Following a January 23, 1971 loss to Notre Dame (when I was eight years old), UCLA rattled off 15 straight wins to claim the school's fifth straight NCAA championship. This was not an easy run to the title, as six of the 15 wins were by four points or fewer (see here for UCLA <a href="http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/ucla/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/0910MBB_MG_History.pdf">season-by-season logs</a> from that era). The next season, 1971-72, was far easier for the Bruins. Sophomore Bill Walton joined the squad,* leading UCLA to a 30-0 record and another championship. Only two games were closer than 10 points, a five-point win in the NCAA title game vs. Florida State and a six-point conference win at Oregon State. Another 30-0, title season followed in 1972-73. Two six-point conference wins were the Bruins' closest of the season.<br />
<br />
With seven straight national championships and 75 straight wins, UCLA entered the 1973-74 season, Walton's senior year. Having survived 65-64 against a talented Maryland squad in the season's second game, UCLA ran its season record to 13-0 and overall streak to 88 games, entering the site of its last lost -- Notre Dame -- on January 19, 1974. Having taken a late 70-59 lead over the Irish (with no three-point shot or shot clock), the Bruins seemed almost certain to extend their streak. However, UCLA inexplicably gave up a 12-0 run to close the game (shown <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4MBIQoCO-U">here</a> on YouTube), yielding a <a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/92781/nds-ucla-upset-stands-test-of-time">71-70 Notre Dame victory</a>. The Bruins' failure to get a tip-in on a final possession is painful from a UCLA perspective. The Bruins' streak of titles also fell that season, as they couldn't hold a <a href="http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/03/today_in_sports_history_nc_sta.html">seven-point lead in the second overtime period</a> over NC State in the national semifinals.<br />
<br />
<i>(Another championship factory in Westwood was the UCLA men's volleyball program, under coach Al Scates. From 1970, when the sport became sanctioned by the NCAA, to 2006, Scates's teams won <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/history/volleyball-men/nc">19 national titles</a>, including 11 of the first 15 NCAA tourneys held.)</i><br />
<br />
LAKERS<br />
<br />
Partially overlapping UCLA's 88-game basketball winning streak in time was the Lakers' 33-game winning stretch (November 5, 1971- January 7, 1972). In 2007, on the 35th anniversary of the Lakers' streak, I wrote a <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2007/01/today-is-35th-anniversary-of-ending-of.html">detailed analysis</a> of it, so I won't do so here. This was an old squad, led by aging superstars Jerry West and Wilt Chamberlain, so it would not have seemed a likely candidate for such a long winning streak.<br />
<br />
The 1971-72 Laker team also won the franchise's first NBA title in Los Angeles (after the Minneapolis Lakers had <a href="http://www.nba.com/lakers/history">won championships</a> in 1949, '50, '52, '53, and '54). The Lakers have won several more NBA titles (1979-80, 1981-82, 1984-85, 1986-87, 1987-88, 1999-2000, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09, and 2009-10; <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/">season-by-season log</a>). The Lakers' 1986-87 and 1987-88 titles (the second of which had been <a href="http://www.nba.com/history/rileyrepeat_moments.html">guaranteed</a> by L.A. coach Pat Riley) were the first back-to-back championships by an NBA team since the Boston Celtics won in 1967-68 and 1968-69 (<a href="http://www.landofbasketball.com/championships/year_by_year.htm">list of NBA champions</a>).<br />
<br />
The aforementioned Chamberlain, who played the final five campaigns of his <a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/chambwi01.html">14-year NBA career</a> with the Lakers, was like a one-man record book (see the chart on page 169 of the league's golden-anniversary volume <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/NBA-50-Fifty-Nba/dp/0517200554/">NBA at 50</a></i> for details). What some observers consider most remarkable is that Chamberlain <a href="http://www.nba.com/2012/history/features/03/26/season-of-giants-wilt-fouling-out/">never fouled out</a> of an NBA game.<br />
<br />
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, another legendary NBA center who played roughly the final three-quarters of his career with the Lakers (<a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/abdulka01.html">1975-76 to 1988-89</a>), had a few noteworthy streaks himself. On the advanced analytic metric of Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Abdul-Jabbar led the league nine times in an 11-year span (1970-71 through 1980-81). He also once had a streak of <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19079006/lebron-james-passes-kareem-abdul-jabbar-788th-straight-game-double-digit-points">787 consecutive games</a> with 10 points or more.<br />
<br />
***<br />
<br />
Being such a large city, Los Angeles has a large number of professional teams (especially if one counts nearby Anaheim), along with major universities UCLA and USC.<br />
<br />
USC FOOTBALL<br />
<br />
Whereas the Bruins have been a national power in basketball, the Trojans have done likewise in football. From 2003-05, USC won <a href="http://www.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/usc-winningstreak.html">34 straight on the gridiron</a>, one of the <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/college-football-winning-streaks-791476">longest winning streaks</a> in college-football history. The Trojans shared the 2003 mythical national championship (i.e., non-playoff determined) and won the mythical championship in 2004 during the streak. It was against Texas in early 2006 (playing for the 2005 mythical title) that USC's winning streak ended. Note that, because of NCAA findings of <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2011-05-26/infractions-decision-stands-usc">improper financial assistance</a> to Trojan running back Reggie Bush during this period, some record-keeping organizations have <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/">stripped USC of wins and/or titles</a> with which Bush was associated.<br />
<br />
<i>(Also, USC won <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/history/baseball/d1">five straight</a> college baseball national championships from 1970-1974; had separate streaks of <a href="http://usctrojans.com/news/1999/6/21/The_Story_of_USC_Track_and_Field.aspx?path=track">nine and seven straight</a> NCAA men's track and field titles; and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_swimming_and_diving_championships">two separate stretches of four straight</a> NCAA men's swimming titles.)</i><br />
<br />
DODGERS<br />
<br />
After <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/2013/10/20/4857534/1988-world-series-game-5-dodgers-athletics-orel-hershiser">winning the World Series in 1988</a>, the Dodgers did not return to the Fall Classic <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21084939/los-angeles-dodgers-eliminate-chicago-cubs-clinch-first-world-series-berth-1988">until this past autumn</a>, ending the franchise's 28-year drought (1989-2016) without a National League pennant. However, in <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/02/houston-astros-world-series-champions-charlie-morton">falling to the Houston Astros</a> in seven games, the Dodgers extended their stretch without a World Series <i>championship</i> to 29 years.<br />
<br />
Between 1955, when the Brooklyn Dodgers won the franchise's first world title, and 1988, the team won six World Series (1955, 1959, 1963, 1965, 1981, and 1988), the last five of which in Los Angeles. During this span, there was thus never longer than a 16-year gap between world titles (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/">year-to-year log</a>).<br />
<br />
Individual Dodger players have had a few interesting streaks during the franchise's L.A. years. Many baseball fans (at least those of a certain age) will be familiar with how Dodger pitcher Orel Hershiser set the MLB record of 59 consecutive scoreless innings in 1988, passing another Dodger, Don Drysdale, who had thrown 58 straight shutout innings 20 years earlier. What I hadn't realized is that yet another Dodger, Zack Greinke, moved into fourth place on the <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/longest-scoreless-inning-streaks-in-history/c-137976112">all-time list</a> in 2015 with 45 and 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings (St. Louis's Bob Gibson is in third place with 47 in 1968).<br />
<br />
Another set of streaks, reflecting the Dodgers' perennially strong farm system, involves consecutive <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/roy_rol.shtml">Rookie of the Year winners</a> in the National League. L.A. players won five straight from 1992-1996 (Eric Karros, Mike Piazza, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, and Todd Hollandsworth) and four straight from 1979-1982 (Rick Sutcliffe, Steve Howe, Fernando Valenzuela, and Steve Sax). Talking about Valenzuela, his "Fernandomania" 1981 season featured a lot of hot pitching. I wrote about Fernandomania on its <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2011/03/todays-los-angeles-times-has-article-on.html">30th anniversary</a> in 2011.<br />
<br />
Finally, continuing on the theme of great Dodger pitchers, Clayton Kershaw led the National League in low Earned Run Average four straight years (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml">2011-2014</a>), whereas Sandy Koufax did so five straight years (<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koufasa01.shtml">1962-1966</a>).<br />
<br />
ANGELS<br />
<br />
If one wants to take literally the name Los Angeles Angels, even though the team plays in Anaheim, then I would include two players' individual streaks in the present essay.<br />
<br />
Mike Trout has recorded <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml">at least 7 offensive Wins Above Replacement</a> (oWAR) for each of the last six seasons. In order to find streaks matching or exceeding Trout's, you need to look at players such as Willie Mays (nine straight years, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mayswi01.shtml">1957-1965</a>), Babe Ruth (seven straight, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml">1926-1932</a>), and Ted Williams (six straight, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willite01.shtml">1941-1942, 1946-1949</a>, interrupted by military service).<br />
<br />
In terms of Angel pitching, it would be hard to top Nolan Ryan's eight years with the club (1972-1979). Ryan had a stretch of five years out of six with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryanno01.shtml">300-plus strikeouts per year</a> (1972, '73, '74, '76, and '77). He also had some <a href="http://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/june-1-1975-nolan-ryan-ties-koufaxs-record-fourth-career-no-hitter">career milestones in 1975</a>, but suffered through elbow pain that year and eventually had surgery. Only Ryan and Randy Johnson (each with six) <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/chris-sale-records-300th-strikeout-making-it-the-35th-such-season-in-mlb-history/">have more than three</a> career 300-plus strikeout seasons. Johnson had a streak of five straight 300-plus strikeout seasons (1998-2002; be sure to look at the 1998 TOTAL line in his <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsra05.shtml">season-by-season log</a>, as he pitched for two teams that year).<br />
<br />
PRO FOOTBALL (RAMS, CHARGERS, and RAIDERS)<br />
<br />
Pro football has had an inconsistent history in the L.A. area, with the Rams (1946-1994**; 2016-present) now in their <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/ram/">second stint there</a>, the Chargers (1960, 2017) likewise in their <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sdg/">second (brief) stint</a> in L.A., and the Raiders a resident from <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rai/">1982-1994</a>. Given the Rams' longest history in L.A., I focus on them.<br />
<br />
The L.A. Rams won the 1951 (pre-Super Bowl) NFL championship, amidst a string of four straight divisional titles (1949-1952). Several years later, however, the franchise entered a tailspin, with the Rams finishing either fifth, sixth, or seventh in their division for seven straight seasons (1959-1965). Things turned around again in 1973, with the Rams winning their division seven straight years (1973-1979), culminating in the franchise's only Super Bowl appearance as the L.A. Rams, a <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/198001200pit.htm">loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers</a> on January 20, 1980. From 1991-1994, it was another slide for the Rams, as they finished last in their four-team division for four straight years. With that, the team was off for St. Louis.<br />
<br />
Two L. A. Ram stalwarts, in terms of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_consecutive_starts_and_games_played_by_National_Football_League_players">longevity</a>, were defensive tackle Merlin Olsen with 198 consecutive starts (1962-1976) and defensive end Jack Youngblood with 184 (1972-1984).<br />
<br />
HOCKEY (KINGS and DUCKS)<br />
<br />
The L.A. Kings <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/LAK/">entered the NHL</a> in the 1967-68 western expansion. An interesting piece of Kings trivia is that the franchise has won more Stanley Cups (two, 2011-12 and 2013-14) than divisional titles (one, 1990-91).<br />
<br />
The best-known player in franchise history would have to be <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/gretzwa01.html">Wayne Gretzky</a>, who played all or part of eight seasons with the Kings (1988-89 through 1995-96). With "The Great One," the Kings made one Stanley Cup final, losing in 1993 to Montreal. By at least one statistical metric, however, Gretzky was not as effective with the Kings as during his previous seasons with the Edmonton Oilers. Whereas Gretzky's annual Offensive Point Shares value ranged from 14.9-17.4 for six straight years with Edmonton (1981-82 through 1986-87), his OPS never exceeded 13.2 with the Kings.***<br />
<br />
The Anaheim Ducks (originally known as the Mighty Ducks) won the Stanley Cup in 2007 and lost in the finals in 2003. Goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere was part of both teams, but was a truly dominant, <a href="http://www.startribune.com/wild-notes-giguere-fondly-remembers-dominance-of-2003-playoffs/255747991/">hot goalie in 2003</a>, at one point amassing three straight shutouts in one playoff series. In more recent years, the Ducks have faced nothing but playoff frustration, getting eliminated in decisive seventh games <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/ANA/">four straight years</a> (2013, '14, '15, and '16). It is probably small consolation that their 2017 playoff ouster came in a six-game series.<br />
<br />
SOCCER (GALAXY)<br />
<br />
The L.A. Galaxy has been among the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MLS_Cup_finals">most successful franchises</a> in Major League Soccer, winning five championships total, and three in a four-year span (2011, 2012, and 2014).<br />
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*Walton was a freshman in 1970-71, but first-year players were not eligible to play varsity sports <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1972/01/09/archives/freshmen-given-varsity-status-in-major-sports-ncaas-surprise-move.html">until 1972-73</a>.<br />
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**The Rams moved from the Los Angeles Coliseum to the previously baseball-only Anaheim Stadium in 1980 and played there through 1994. To increase seating capacity for the Rams, Anaheim added <a href="http://www.stadiumsofprofootball.com/stadiums/anaheim-stadium/">double-decker stands in the baseball outfield area</a>. After the Rams' departure to St. Louis, the outfield seats were removed, giving the Angels' ballpark a more traditional baseball feel once again.<br />
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***Don't get me wrong -- a lot of great players would love to have a 13.2 OPS for a season. It's just low relative to Gretzky's previous numbers.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-58628493489461850222018-01-07T21:38:00.001-08:002019-01-28T22:27:26.710-08:00Streaks in the City (1): Believeland Or GrievelandHappy New Year!<br />
<br />
Today, I am introducing a new feature for 2018 on the Hot Hand blog, which I'm calling "Streaks in the City." Each entry will feature a different North American city and discuss famous streaks its teams and athletes have recorded over the years.<br />
<br />
The first city to be featured is Cleveland, Ohio, a city associated in many people's minds with misfortune such as <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/national/articles/2008/12/15/three-decades-after-cleveland-defaulted-on-its-debts-cities-face-recession-budget-woes">municipal bankruptcy</a>, a <a href="https://clevelandhistorical.org/items/show/63">lake catching on fire</a>, and sports futility. Cleveland sports teams have actually exhibited two types of futility: near misses by pretty good teams when it looked like a title might be within reach, and horrible teams.<br />
<br />
One example of the latter is this past season's Cleveland Browns football squad, which went 0-16, prompting yesterday's <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21985114/cleveland-browns-fans-hold-perfect-season-parade-20-mark-team-0-16-season">"perfect season" parade by the stadium</a>.<br />
<br />
Yet, on a more uplifting note, we had the May 14, 2016 ESPN documentary "<a href="http://www.espn.com/30for30/film?page=Believeland">Believeland</a>," chronicling the efforts of Cleveland's teams to win the city's first championship in any major sport since the Browns in 1964, followed about a month later (June 19, 2016) by LeBron James and the Cavaliers <a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/nba/article84765842.html">bringing the NBA title to Cleveland</a>. Before the Cavs' championship, Cleveland's 52-year title drought (1964-2016) had been the longest active streak of its kind among North American cities. (Milwaukee now tops the leaderboard at 46 years, the Bucks' 1971 NBA title being the city's last in any pro sport.)<br />
<br />
It can be said about all three of Cleveland's major pro-sports franchises* (and about many other teams outside of Cleveland, as well) that they have experienced a lot of losing, but have periodically had some title-contenders.<br />
<br />
CAVALIERS<br />
<br />
The Cavs were part of the NBA's 1970-71 expansion, going 15-67 that first season (<a href="https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/">season-by-season log</a>). If a team's nearly 50-year history can be conveyed in a single sentence, Cleveland has alternated every few years between rock-bottom and being a playoff club. The Cavs improved over their first few years to where they made the postseason three straight years (1975-76 to 1977-78). A nine-year dry spell ensued from 1978-79 to 1986-87, in which the team only made the playoffs once, in 1984-85, with a 36-46 record. Other lowlights during this stretch included another <a href="https://jsportsblogger.wordpress.com/2012/07/08/the-worst-teams-of-all-time-part-2-1981-82-cleveland-cavaliers/">15-67 record in 1981-82</a>, a parade of coaches around this time that included Don Delaney, whose coaching experience included <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/ohio-sports-blog/index.ssf/2011/02/don_delaney_former_cleveland_c.html">pro softball and small-college basketball</a>, and <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/what-is-the-ted-stepien-rule-325791">imposition by the NBA of a rule</a> prohibiting teams from trading away their first-round draft-pick two years in a row, after the Cavs did so to disastrous effect.<br />
<br />
A productive era followed from 1987-88 to 1997-98, with nine playoff appearances in 11 years. Early on in this timeframe, the Cavs benefited from up-and-coming players such as Brad Daugherty, Mark Price, and Larry Nance. A 57-25 Cleveland squad was ousted in the first round of the 1988-89 playoffs on what's famously known as "The Shot" by the Bulls' Michael Jordan in the deciding game of a 3-out-of-5 series (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5WUOnTxwPw">YouTube video</a>), but the Cavs were unlikely to make the NBA finals that year, anyway, as Detroit was at the peak of its "Bad Boys" dynasty, winning the title in 1989 and 1990.<br />
<br />
Next came seven straight non-playoff years from 1998-99 to 2004-05. A 17-65 record in 2002-03 put the Cavs in a position to draft a local hero from nearby Akron, LeBron James, out of high school. In James's third season, 2005-06, Cleveland was back in the playoffs, and the next year, 2006-07, the Cavs made their first-ever NBA final, losing to San Antonio. James helped Cleveland win the 2007 Eastern Conference finals by <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2007/06/sports-world-is-abuzz-over-last-nights.html">scoring the team's last 25 points</a> in a key game of that series.<br />
<br />
After three more successful years in Cleveland -- in terms of win-loss records, but without a return to the NBA finals -- James left after the 2009-10 season, famously "tak[ing] my talents to South Beach" via free-agency, to play for the Miami Heat (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTeCc8jy7FI">YouTube video</a>). While James was making the NBA finals with the Heat each of the next four years and capturing two titles, Cleveland averaged 24 wins per season over the same four years.<br />
<br />
Almost as stunningly, James returned to Cleveland via free agency for the 2014-15 season. In his three complete seasons back in Ohio, the Cavs have made the NBA finals every year (always against the Golden State Warriors), winning in 2016, but losing in 2015 and 2017.<br />
<br />
Now, at age 33, James is still <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lebron-is-still-getting-better/">going strong</a>. Earlier in the current 2017-18 season, he led the Cavs to a franchise-record-tying <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/recap/_/id/400975104">13-game winning streak</a>. James can't play forever and when he either retires or leaves for another team, the Cavs will probably go through a multiple-year slump, if past is indeed prologue.<br />
<br />
INDIANS<br />
<br />
Among MLB franchises that have won the World Series at least once -- which Cleveland did in 1948 and 1920 -- the Indians hold the <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/longest-world-series-droughts-teams-cleveland-indians-houston-astros">longest currently active drought</a>, 69 straight years, without a World Series title.<br />
<br />
Still the Indians have been excellent in recent years -- even record-setting in a good way -- narrowly missing a World Series title in 2016 and compiling an American League-record** <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/here-are-22-stats-and-facts-about-the-indians-record-22-game-winning-streak/">22-game winning streak</a> in 2017. During the latter, a new hashtag appeared on Twitter celebrating the streak: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Windians?src=hash">#windians</a>. A run to a slump-ending World Series win seemed likely, especially after Cleveland took a 2-0 lead in games over the Yankees in a 3-out-of-5 series. But then, days later, it was over, as New York went on a three-game winning streak.<br />
<br />
A look at the Indians' <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/">season-by-season log</a> shows that, in the 11 years following the 1948 championship (1949-1959), Cleveland finished above .500 -- sometimes well above it -- 10 times. This stretch included a 111-43 record in 1954, en route to the World Series, which Cleveland lost to the New York Giants. However, in the 34 years from 1960-1993, the Indians reached or exceeded .500 only seven times.<br />
<br />
Things have turned around in the 24 following years (1994-2017), with 16 .500-or-better seasons and three World Series appearances. These occurred in 1995 (a six-game loss to the Braves), 1997 (a seven-game loss to the Marlins, in which the Indians <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/lebron-james-calls-out-jose-mesa-for-blown-save-in-game-7-of-1997-world-series/">couldn't hold a one-run lead</a> in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7) and 2016 (a seven-game loss to the Cubs).<br />
<br />
As good as the Indians have been the last two seasons, it will probably take a drought-ending World Series title to really earn the moniker Windians in many fans' view.<br />
<br />
BROWNS<br />
<br />
A team named the Cleveland Browns has never appeared in a Super Bowl, the pro-football championship game that launched on <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/packers-beat-chiefs-in-first-super-bowl">January 15, 1967</a>. However, a team that once was the Cleveland Browns has not only made it to, but also won, a Super Bowl. The explanation, of course, is that then-Browns owner Art Modell moved the team to Baltimore after the 1995 season (becoming the Ravens) and the Ravens won the Super after the 2000 season. In some ways, however, the connection between the 1995 Browns and 2000 Ravens is not that strong, as <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2001/jan/20/sports/sp-14757">only two players were on both squads</a>. The Ravens <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/">also won the Super Bowl</a> after the 2012 season.<br />
<br />
Prior to the 1995 move, the Browns, like the Cavaliers and Indians, enjoyed some sporadic success. Cleveland made five straight NFL playoff appearances from 1985-1989, with particularly devastating postseason losses occurring in 1985, 1987, and 1988. These are summarized <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/316250-history-of-cleveland-sports">here</a>.<br />
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After the Modell move, the NFL granted Cleveland a replacement franchise, also to be known as the Browns, which would begin play in 1999. The "new" Browns have made the playoffs only once (in 2002) in <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cle/">their 19 years of existence</a>, and have gone a combined 1-31 in 2016 and '17. Since 1999, the Browns have had <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21699936/cleveland-browns-fire-personnel-czar-sashi-brown">eight general managers and nine head coaches</a>.<br />
<br />
Some may cite the "Cleveland Curse" for the misfortunes of the new Browns. However, as argued by <i>Cleveland Plain-Dealer</i> columnist and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Terry-Pluto/e/B000AP7UVC/ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_1?qid=1515384637&sr=1-1">prolific book author</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/terrypluto">Terry Pluto</a>, in <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/False-Start-Browns-Were-Fail/dp/1886228884/ref=la_B000AP7UVC_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1515384671&sr=1-3">False Start: How the New Browns Were Set Up to Fail</a></i>, structural barriers imposed by the NFL are to blame. The team faced a compressed start-up time, a weakened expansion draft, and other hindrances, which they still haven't overcome, approaching 20 years.<br />
<br />
CONCLUSION<br />
<br />
Cleveland has had a lot of streaks in the last roughly 70 years, most of them involving losing and droughts. The city has had some nice within-season winning streaks (such as the 2017 Indians), but in our championship-minded society, mere winning streaks aren't enough. I would expect continued shuffling between Believeland and Grieveland in the coming years, with more time spent in the latter. I don't know how much more time remains in the LeBron-led Cavaliers' championship window, especially with the Warriors being so good. The Indians should be good for a while, but the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and others aren't going anywhere. That leaves the Browns...<br />
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If the city's teams all start struggling around the same time, it will not be good for the health of Clevelanders. The 2013 (pre-Cavs' title) book <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Secret-Lives-Sports-Fans/dp/1590208641/">The Secret Lives of Sports Fans</a></i>, by Eric Simons, devotes an entire chapter to Cleveland. One former resident of the city suggests that "the miserable winter weather and the lack of other [cultural, entertainment, or recreational] options" have driven Clevelanders toward an intense fandom of sports (p. 101). Another transplant from Cleveland says, "There is a bitterness, a frustration with Cleveland that cannot be matched anywhere else" (p. 100).<br />
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*The city had an NHL team, the Cleveland Barons, in the 1970s, but it went <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/lost-franchises-remembering-the-nhls-cleveland-barons/">defunct after only two seasons</a>.<br />
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**The MLB-record winning streak is usually credited at 26, by the 1916 New York Giants. However, a tie in a darkness-shortened game has led to a <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/15/cleveland-indians-new-york-giants-winning-streak">controversy over the Giants' streak</a>.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-51103554205419886772017-06-09T13:48:00.002-07:002017-06-09T13:52:12.426-07:00Major ESPN.com Article on Three-Pt Shooting Hot HandToday on ESPN.com, there's a <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/presents-19573519">big article</a> on hot-hand research. The article is written primarily through the lens of Klay Thompson and his deep-launching Golden State Warriors teammates, but also discusses the 2015 research of Joshua Miller and Adam Sanjurjo, claiming a "substantial" hot-hand effect in the NBA All-Star three-point shooting contest.<br />
<br />
In addition, Tom Gilovich, lead author on the 1985 study claiming no support for a hot hand, shares his thoughts in the ESPN article on how the Miller-Sanjurjo research may (or may not) have revolutionized how we should think about hot-hand effects. Gilovich, a longtime Cornell University psychology professor, notes that he has shared the Miller-Sanjurjo research with some Cornell mathematicians and that, "People with tremendous math skills are all over the map on this one."<br />
<br />
My own take on the Miller-Sanjurjo research, from back in 2015, is available <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/08/new-study-of-nba-three-point-contest.html">here</a>. Be sure to see Miller's comments on my piece and my reply.<br />
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One side note on today's ESPN.com article is that, where author Tom Haberstroh alludes to the fact that, "The legendary Bobby Knight wasn't a fan of the so-called fallacy [claimed by Gilovich and colleagues], either," the embedded hyperlink leads to my book!<br />
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***<br />
<br />
As I note at the top of the blog, nearly all of my recent tracking of sports streaks has taken place via my <a href="https://twitter.com/alanreifman">Twitter feed</a>, rather than this blog. My last blog posting before today, in fact, was all the way back on February 13. Just to update things, here are a couple of prominent hot-hand developments of the past four months:<br />
<ul>
<li>As virtually all readers of this blog would know, the UConn women's basketball team had its latest gargantuan winning streak, one that had reached 111 games, <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700711-uconns-111-game-win-streak-ends-with-ot-buzzer-beater-loss-to-mississippi-state">snapped in the Final Four</a> national semifinals by Mississippi State. Shortly afterward, I tweeted a <a href="https://twitter.com/AlanReifman/status/848661469197717506">graphic I created</a> to show how Mississippi State milked the shot-clock to shorten the game against UConn.</li>
<li>Back in April, Guy Molyneux wrote in to Andrew Gelman's blog, <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2017/04/10/33539/">arguing that</a>, "the hot hand likely has a negligible impact on game outcomes." In the comments section below Molyneux's piece, Miller and several other discussants debate the argument.</li>
</ul>
alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-12851192840650853492017-02-13T11:20:00.001-08:002017-03-08T07:53:32.038-08:00UConn Women Go for 100 Straight WinsThe University of Connecticut women's basketball team goes for its 100th straight win tonight, hosting South Carolina in a nonconference match-up. The 100-game mark seems mainly about symbolism, as the Huskies have already had a <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2010/12/its-over-after-surpassing-1970s-mens.html">90-game</a> winning streak (snapped in 2010) and a <a href="http://www.villanova.com/sports/w-baskbl/recaps/031103aaa.html">70-game</a> victory stretch (ended in 2003). The John Wooden-coached UCLA men's basketball program pulled off an 88-game winning streak, which ended in 1974.<br />
<br />
The following chart shows UConn's margin of victory in its last 99 games (arranged chronologically from left to right). Exact margins are shown up to 40 points, but if the Huskies won by more than 40, there's just a ">40" box on top. You can click on the graphic to enlarge it.<br />
<br />
UConn <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_East_Conference_(1979%E2%80%932013)">used to be in the Big East</a>, along with, at various times, such top women's hoop programs as Villanova, Notre Dame, and Louisville. However, after the big <a href="http://conferencerealignment.blogspot.com/2013/04/resolution-of-big-east-break-up-into.html">conference-realignment shake-out</a> of the 2010s, the Huskies ended up in the American Athletic Conference (AAC), which at the moment doesn't have any real competitors for UConn.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>UConn Margin of Victory in Last 99 Games</b></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-3n4p0smkIvpjC5CQDlxCZToIUFEwjlK7XXldktoT1VOUVNNWWzb8QVhIoebMwFwrzShz635clL83StI4xN6ivaGagBls9NXUUOqLRXrAR_7rH3TJ0L4kAJjYbShu5rXjVFxP/s1600/uconn+closes+in+on+100.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-3n4p0smkIvpjC5CQDlxCZToIUFEwjlK7XXldktoT1VOUVNNWWzb8QVhIoebMwFwrzShz635clL83StI4xN6ivaGagBls9NXUUOqLRXrAR_7rH3TJ0L4kAJjYbShu5rXjVFxP/s400/uconn+closes+in+on+100.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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As seen in the light-blue columns above, UConn has won every AAC game (regular-season and conference-tournament), except two, by 20 or more points (games 51 and 31<a href="http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18452652/examining-every-victory-connecticut-huskies-ncaa-record-winning-streak"> in this list</a>). The Huskies have won nearly 40 AAC games by 40 or more points. (Game 86, vs. Nebraska, has a typo; it should be 84-41.)<br />
<br />
The royal-blue columns represent nonconference games (both in the regular season and in the NCAA tournament). To UConn's credit, it schedules many games against elite nonconference opposition, including Tennessee (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connecticut%E2%80%93Tennessee_rivalry">until 2007</a>), Notre Dame, Duke, Baylor, Maryland, Florida State, and tonight's opponent, <a href="http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/hc-uconn-women-basketball-0213-20170212-story.html">South Carolina</a> (curently ranked No. 6 in the nation). As can be seen, the heights of the royal-blue bars are much lower than the light-blue ones. In fact, twice this season UConn won by two and six points, against <a href="http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-womens-basketball/hc-uconn-women-basketball-1115-20161114-story.html">Florida State</a> and <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2016-12-29/uconn-maryland-recap-no-1-huskies-win-87th-straight-against">Maryland</a>, respectively.<br />
<br />
The early 1970s UCLA men had a lot more close calls during its 88-game winning streak. According to this <a href="http://www.dailynews.com/article/ZZ/20101219/NEWS/101218311">retrospective article</a>, “Two games were one-point victories. Three more were by two points.” Another 11 wins by 4-9 points. Of course, the college game had neither a shot-clock nor a three-point shot at that time, Teams could hold the ball on UCLA and the lack of a three would have kept the scoring down.*<br />
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<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; unicode-bidi: embed; word-break: normal;">
I would think UConn would be a heavy favorite tonight, but if there's any chance for the game to be competitive, having a strong nonconference opponent makes it more likely.<br />
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*The information on the UCLA men's streak was added later.</div>
alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-28437210614628548262017-01-05T14:37:00.002-08:002017-01-05T21:17:16.847-08:00Columbus Blue Jackets Seek to Tie NHL Record for Longest Winning StreakTonight, in the nation's capital, the Columbus Blue Jackets will <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/columbus-blue-jackets-tie-nhl-record-17th-win-44557007">try to tie the NHL record</a> of 17 straight wins, held by the <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/columbus-closing-history-look-longest-nhl-winning-streaks/">1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins</a>. Here's a <a href="http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/18405772/nhl-how-columbus-blue-jackets-winning-streak-happened">chronicle</a> of how the team's 16 wins have unfolded. Many articles have appeared on the Blue Jackets' streak, from analytic (<a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/in-praise-of-the-columbus-blue-jackets-what-we-learned-150821667.html">here</a>, <a href="http://thesportsdaily.com/buckeye-state-hockey/on-the-blue-jackets-streak-and-unsustainability/">here</a>, and <a href="http://www.jacketscannon.com/2016/12/17/13990762/the-blue-jackets-are-good-not-lucky-or-doomed-metropolitan-playoffs-statistics-rebuttal">here</a>), and even <a href="https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/12/27/how-good-is-columbus-a-bayesian-approach/#more-14342">Bayesian statistical</a> perspectives. I was interviewed in this <i>SB Nation</i> <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2017/1/1/14137708/columbus-blue-jackets-win-streak-nhl-record-minnesota-wild-calvert-dumba-stewart-anderson-fight">article</a>.<br />
<br />
Two main issues stand out to me. One, which the <i>SB Nation</i> writer discussed with me but didn't make it into the article, is the likelihood of a team with the Blue Jackets', shall we say, non-illustrious history going on such a long winning streak. As I wrote in my book <i>Hot Hand</i>, "many of the most famous streaks... have been compiled by athletes and teams who are among the all-time greats in their respective sports" (p. 5). Examples cited include Kobe Bryant, Joe DiMaggio, and Tiger Woods. As the late Harvard paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/1988/08/18/the-streak-of-streaks/">once wrote</a>, "Long streaks always are, and must be, a matter of extraordinary luck imposed upon great skill."<br />
<br />
The Blue Jackets hardly seem to be the kind of winning franchise, upon which only a little luck would have to be added to produce a long string of victories. Columbus has made only <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CBJ/">two playoff appearances in the 16 years</a> of franchise history, most recently in 2013-14. At the risk of overstatement, a Blue Jackets' winning streak would be like hearing that a run of 50 consecutive made free throws belonged to Shaq O'Neal rather than Steph Curry.*<br />
<br />
The second issue, pertaining to on-the-rink statistics, involves shots on goal. Because goals are rare in hockey, analysts typically focus instead on teams' shot-on-goal totals, which turn out to be a good measure of puck possession (see the new book <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Abstract-Presents-Stat-Shot/dp/177041309X/">Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics</a></i>, by Rob Vollman and colleagues, for further discussion).<br />
<br />
As shown <a href="http://thesportsdaily.com/buckeye-state-hockey/on-the-blue-jackets-streak-and-unsustainability/">here</a>, in games before the streak, Columbus and its opponents were each taking roughly 50% of the shots (see the columns marked Corsi, Fenwick, and Shots For). During the streak, in contrast, the Blue Jackets have around 54% of the shots in their games and their opponents, 46%. Aggregate shot totals can be misleading, however, because of <i>score effects</i>, the phenomenon of a trailing team bombarding the opposing net with desperation shots in an attempt to get back in the game.<br />
<br />
I created the following graphic to take game context into account. Using a puck image for each game during the Columbus winning streak, I plotted the Blue Jackets' deficit or lead on the scoreboard on the <i>x</i>-axis (from losing by 2 to winning by 4). On the <i>y</i>-axis, we see differences between the Blue Jackets' and opponents' actual numbers of third-period shots (which may be more intuitive to grasp than the percentage of total shots attributable to each team). The puck in the upper-left corner of the graph, for example, represents the Blue Jackets' <a href="http://www.espn.com/nhl/recap/_/gameId/400884764">December 3 game at Arizona</a>, the third game in Columbus's streak. The Jackets trailed 2-1 after two periods (the only game during the streak in which they entered the third period trailing), but in a feverish attempt to tie the game (which Columbus did with 2:16 remaining), outshot the Coyotes 23-4 in the third (+19). Columbus eventually won 3-2 via shootout.<br />
<br />
If a game is close (i.e., tied or within one goal either way) heading into the third period, we should find Columbus dominating the shots-on-goal totals in the third period during the winning streak. If the Blue Jackets are relatively comfortably ahead, on the other hand, we would expect their opponents to be dominating the shots. This is exactly what we find.<br />
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For those with some statistical training, the correlation between size of Columbus's lead on the scoreboard (with a deficit scored with a negative sign) and their edge or deficit in third-period shots was a statistically significant (<i>r</i> = -.58; see blade of the hockey stick in the graphic). The less favorable the Blue Jackets' situation after two periods (trailing or tied), the more they outshot their opponents.<br />
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So, if you're a Blue Jackets fan or simply like to see long streaks, don't worry if Columbus is not leading after the second period. In that event, a Blue Jacket barrage on the Capitals' net seems almost certain!<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">UPDATE:</span></b> It was not to be for the Blue Jackets, as the Washington Capitals <a href="http://www.espn.com/nhl/recap?gameId=400884975">routed them 5-0</a>, ending Columbus's winning streak at 16 games.<br />
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*That's not to say that amazing turnarounds don't occur. Baseball's Atlanta Braves went from a 65-97 record in 1990 to <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/">14 straight divisional titles</a> (excluding the incomplete, strike-shortened 1994 season). Also, football's San Francisco 49ers went <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/">2-14 and 6-10 under Bill Walsh</a> in 1979 and 1980, respectively, before winning the Super Bowl after the 1981 season. The team would win three more Super Bowls in the decade.</div>
alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-46527225120414154632016-11-24T13:56:00.002-08:002016-11-24T13:56:51.827-08:00Gotta "Love" It -- 34 Points, 8-of-10 on Treys, in First Quarter AloneAs most NBA fans have probably heard by now, the Cleveland Cavaliers' Kevin Love scored <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18125127">34 points in the first quarter</a> last night in leading his team to a 137-125 victory over visiting Portland. It was a record for most points in the <i>first</i> quarter, but not for any quarter.<br />
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Golden State's Klay Thompson once scored 37 points in the third quarter of a game. Although Love's single-quarter point total last night (34) approached Thompson's record, Thompson's is truly one of a kind, in my view, for another reason. Whereas Love missed a few shots last night in the first quarter, going 3-of-4 on two-point attempts, 8-of-10 on shots from behind the arc, and 4-of-4 on free-throws, Thompson <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/01/greatest-shooting-quarter-in-nba.html">didn't miss a single shot</a> of any kind in his big quarter.<br />
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Love's 8-of-10 performance on first-quarter threes is nothing to sneeze at, however, and it is the aspect of his record night that I'd like to focus on. Love is a <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/3449/kevin-love">career .363 three-point shooter</a> in a little over eight years in the NBA and his season-specific three-point shooting-percentages have been very consistent in recent years (.376 in 2013-14; .367 in 2014-15; .360 in 2015-16). Thus far in the <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3449/kevin-love">current season</a>, before last night's game, Love was hitting on .316 (18-of-57) of his treys.<br />
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Using Love's career .363 baseline success-rate, we can ask what is the probability that he would make 8 (or more) three-pointers in a 10-attempt sequence. Using a <a href="http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html">binomial calculator</a>, the answer is .006 or 6-in-1,000.<br />
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In one sense, Love's scoring outburst might be considered more impressive than Thompson's. Compared to Thompson's .417 career NBA three-point shooting-percentage (and .444 for the season coming into his record-setting game), Love's career and season-to-date baseline success-rates were several percentage-points lower. It is, of course, harder for someone with a lower baseline success-rate to enter a stretch of hitting at a torrid pace.<br />
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Love scored only 6 more points after the first quarter last night, finishing with 40. Cleveland led comfortably for most of the game, entering the fourth quarter up 112-92, so was able to rest its starters.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-8814604277730393722016-08-04T19:05:00.001-07:002016-08-04T19:12:27.397-07:00Michael Phelps Looks to Extend Olympic-Gold StreaksWith the opening ceremonies for the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics getting underway tomorrow, swimming enthusiasts are anticipating whether -- and to what degree -- Michael Phelps will be able to extend his career-total medal haul. He currently owns 22 Olympic medals, 18 gold, 2 silver, and 2 bronze.<br />
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In terms of Olympic streaks, Phelps has ongoing runs of three straight golds in the 100-meter butterfly and the 200-meter individual medley. He will attempt to extend each of these streaks to four in a row. Before Phelps won the two aforementioned events in 2012, <a href="https://swimswam.com/michael-phelps-becomes-first-to-win-three-straight-titles/">no male swimmer had won the same event</a> at more than two straight Olympiad. He will swim a third individual event in Rio, namely the 200 butterfly, in which he <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oly-swim-swm2bu-idUSBRE86U1CZ20120731">narrowly missed</a> a third straight gold in 2012.<br />
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The following chart (which you can click to enlarge) shows Phelps's medal performances not just at the past three Olympiad, but also at the World Championships and Pan-Pacific Championships. The chart includes only the three individual events he will swim in Rio. Phelps did not compete in 2013 due to his brief retirement, plus USA Swimming <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2014/10/06/michael-phelps-banned-for-6-months-and-2015-fina-world-championships-by-usa-swimming/">kept him off the team</a> for the 2015 Worlds for his drunk-driving offenses.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm_fcgP6-eW4DN2efO0IMdX8FqstSfb9PRGbzOorOhIU6gtqLflliYNUYco8uRmw6FkwnZUcF8xHz7gYsrgE86xpmAoBqgrEVolCEJHOFFl7m5PA2_Lj5vIBjlOpT_l6a-g84b/s1600/phelps+heading+into+2016+OG.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm_fcgP6-eW4DN2efO0IMdX8FqstSfb9PRGbzOorOhIU6gtqLflliYNUYco8uRmw6FkwnZUcF8xHz7gYsrgE86xpmAoBqgrEVolCEJHOFFl7m5PA2_Lj5vIBjlOpT_l6a-g84b/s400/phelps+heading+into+2016+OG.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i>Sports Illustrated</i>'s pre-Olympic issue picks Phelps to win one gold -- in the 100-meter butterfly, just ahead of Hungary's Laszlo Cseh. Within 2016, Cseh (50.86) has actually swum this race faster than Phelps (51.00), but we don't know that all circumstances (e.g., amount of rest; pool conditions) were comparable. (You can look up the world rankings in any event, based on fastest times, at the <a href="http://www.fina.org/content/swimming-world-ranking">international federation's website</a>.) <i>SI</i> tabs Cseh over Phelps in the 200 fly, and Japan's Kosuke Hagino over Phelps in the 200 IM.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-79495112492879117952016-07-15T00:26:00.002-07:002016-07-15T00:27:17.852-07:00What’s Up (Or In This Case, Down) With the Cubs?Perhaps it’s the Cubs’ historical futility – <a href="http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/chicago-cubs-maddon-epstein-curse/">anyone can have an off-century</a>, paraphrasing former manager Tom Trebelhorn. Or perhaps it’s the reputations of current team executive Theo Epstein and manager Joe Maddon. Whatever the reason, the team’s fast start this season inspired no shortage of superlatives from the media.<br />
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On May 15, with the Cubs sitting at 27-9, CBS Sports.com <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/14-things-to-know-about-the-chicago-cubs-hot-and-historical-start-to-the-season/">splashed around words</a> such as “historic,” “remarkable,” and “incredible” in describing the team’s start.<br />
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On June 7, with the Cubs having advanced their record to 40-16 the night before, FiveThirtyEight made the <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-years-cubs-might-be-better-than-the-incredible-27-yankees/">stunning comparison</a> of Maddon’s bunch to the 1927 Yankees.<br />
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Now, as the season resumes Friday after the All-Star Break, the Northsiders are 53-35. The team’s record has been 26-26 since the CBS Sports article and 13-19 since FiveThirtyEight’s piece.<br />
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The Cubs’ slide began on June 20, the opening day of a three-game Wrigley Field series with St. Louis, which the Cardinals swept. Chicago has now lost five of its last six series (plus a one-game make-up game with Atlanta). Using the <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/chc">Cubs’ game-by-game log</a>, I plotted the results of all of their series so far this season, in chronological order. Opponents are shown on the horizontal axis and the outcome of each series is shown on the vertical axis (sweeping a three-game series would be +3, getting swept four would be -4, etc.; see legend below the graph). You may click on the graphics to enlarge them.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgspLp8NEszKRdLEtDI1w1kComHqXUpC1y_yIaGg4MclzcHKMWajHyrDzAhXUFN7kRkJSWblObEupcD5ZfcOiLYGRosN7o-RycR6eDTYf4nxO3UuCb_ujGwmpgjAaopr6JKWKzW/s1600/cubs+1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgspLp8NEszKRdLEtDI1w1kComHqXUpC1y_yIaGg4MclzcHKMWajHyrDzAhXUFN7kRkJSWblObEupcD5ZfcOiLYGRosN7o-RycR6eDTYf4nxO3UuCb_ujGwmpgjAaopr6JKWKzW/s400/cubs+1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i>[Legend: On the vertical axis, +4, +3, -3, and -4 represent sweeps of 4- or 3-game series; +2 or -2 can result from sweeps of 2-game series or winning or losing 3 in a 4-game series; 0 = split of 2- or 4-game series. The number of games in a series is shown in parentheses after the opponent’s name on the horizontal axis. Asterisk (*) indicates series with 1-game rain postponement until later in season.]</i>
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Presumably, the Cubs have declined in one or more of the following areas: hitting, pitching, and defense. Hitting does not seem to be the major problem. The team’s two leaders in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentages), Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, have maintained a torrid pace. In fact, Rizzo’s two best monthly OPS figures have come in June (1.211) and July (1.178). The same is true for Bryant (June, 1.058; July, 1.222). Addison Russell and Jason Heyward have been steady, if unspectacular, with monthly OPS values in the .700-.800 range of late. That’s not to say that nobody has slumped. Dexter Fowler’s OPS in April, May, and June fell respectively from 1.087 to .879 to .605, and Ben Zobrist has fallen to an OPS of .707 in June and .640 in July, after he had attained a 1.136 in May. Still, there is no universal collapse in hitting among the Cubs.<br />
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To evaluate starting pitchers’ individual outings, I use the “game score” statistic developed by Bill James. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score">scoring system</a> starts a pitcher out with 50 points, then adds points for good pitcher outcomes (e.g., 1 point for each out, plus an additional point for a strikeout) and subtracts points for bad outcomes (-2 for each hit allowed, -4 for each earned-run yielded). Game scores for each and every start by a given pitcher are included among ESPN.com’s pitching statistics. I have plotted game scores for each of the Cubs’ five regular starters, shown in chronological order.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-FH65N_0tbkAnNDgbH7L_Jm4noeQjiiPGgLcbmEfioJvA3KnrvzIK6D1iA_QEIWz1N0ur-g0vdBVedQ3gxMv9RkToTH1jjhqU64XYon34LUBowhSf2vtWjZapKYAMRHuDyomU/s1600/cubs+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-FH65N_0tbkAnNDgbH7L_Jm4noeQjiiPGgLcbmEfioJvA3KnrvzIK6D1iA_QEIWz1N0ur-g0vdBVedQ3gxMv9RkToTH1jjhqU64XYon34LUBowhSf2vtWjZapKYAMRHuDyomU/s400/cubs+2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Although the data are noisy, the general trend is that Cubs starters – four of whom are age 30 and older – began declining around their 15th starts. Before that, most outings were in the 50-80 range (highlighted in gray), meaning that pitchers made a net gain in points above the 50 with which they automatically started.<br />
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John Lackey recorded a 23 in his 15th start (a 9-6 Cubs loss at Miami), Jason Hammel struggled badly with a 5 in his 16th start (a 10-2 loss at the Mets), and Jon Lester also registered a 5; this came in his 17th start, another blow-out loss (14-3) at Citi Field. Jake Arrieta, though not hitting the low points of some of his teammates, has thrown clearly subpar games in his last three starts (game scores of 38, 38, and 35). Kyle Hendricks has been the even-keel starter, never deviating from a range of 41-80.<br />
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According to another <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-pitchers-are-making-their-own-luck/">FiveThirtyEight article</a>, as of June 19 (right before the Cubs’ spate of losing series), Chicago pitchers appeared to be benefiting from two developments: their “contact-management skills” or “tendency to allow batted balls that do less damage;” and excellent defensive play from the fielders. Getting into the physics of batted balls, “Cubs pitchers [had] depressed exit velocity by 0.4 miles per hour and launch angle by almost 2 degrees, relative to average.” In terms of fielding, free-agent acquisition Heyward has <a href="http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/all-star-game-defensive-josh-donaldson-salvador-perez-paul-goldschmidt-nolan-arenado/1twus5evmnrsy1kn9ln5kj310o">saved 35 runs</a> with his defense in 2015 and 2016 combined, according to one estimate, which is one of the best performances for an outfielder during this time.<br />
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One would guess Cub pitchers lately were allowing balls to leave opposing bats with greater exit velocity and launch angle, although I do not have updated statistics on those parameters. The Cubs <a href="http://www.pressherald.com/2016/07/10/major-league-notebook-cubs-ready-for-rest/">need some rest</a>, according to Maddon. That’s as good a recommendation as any, especially for the starting pitchers.
alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-26536549873979242462016-07-09T08:56:00.001-07:002016-07-09T09:35:30.270-07:00Serena Williams Just Keeps Winning Grand Slam TitlesSerena Williams continues to defy the age curve, <a href="http://espn.go.com/tennis/wimbledon16/story/_/id/16922072/2016-wimbledon-serena-williams-wins-22nd-grand-slam-title-tie-steffi-graf-open-era-record">winning the Wimbledon women's singles title</a> earlier today. At 34 years old (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams">born September 26, 1981</a>), Williams is now the oldest player, woman or man, to win a Wimbledon singles championship, <a href="http://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/five-of-the-oldest-wimbledon-singles-champions/5">overtaking Martina Navratilova</a> (33 years, 8 months when she captured her final title in 1990). Accordingly, I have updated the age chart of women's tennis greats that I have displayed on this site from time to time.<br />
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<br />alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-36241336638856462912016-04-17T15:52:00.000-07:002016-04-17T15:54:43.846-07:00Obscure Baseball-Card Find: Walt Dropo, Co-Record Holder for Hits in Consecutive At-Bats (12)As I wrote about in my book <i>Hot Hand</i>, maintaining some types of streaks is more pressure-packed than maintaining others. In baseball, a streak of getting at least one hit per game, while not an easy task, still allows a batter to make one or more outs per game and still potentially preserve the streak. A streak of getting hits in numerous consecutive <i>at-bats</i>, on the other hand, has no margin for error. You make an out and the streak is over.<br />
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As I further noted in the book (page 5), the Major League record for most consecutive at-bats getting a hit each time is 12, co-held by Mike "Pinky" Higgins (1938) and Walt Dropo (1952). Think of that: 12 straight hits without making an out! (Because walks and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_bat">certain other outcomes</a> do not count as official at-bats, players could have walked during their streaks.)<br />
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Shortly after my book came out, Trent McCotter, a leading authority on baseball records and old-time hitting streaks, e-mailed me that, "You can also add Johnny Kling, 1902, to that list [with Higgins and Dropo]. I discovered it a few years back." Trent informed me that the famous Elias Sports Bureau accepted this change, and indeed, <a href="http://www.esb.com/cms/assets/ebbr-2013-sample.pdf">recent versions of the Elias record book</a> list Kling with Higgins and Dropo.<br />
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I saved Trent's message for the next time I wrote about hit streaks in consecutive at-bats, not exactly knowing when that might be. A few months ago, the topic returned, and I have waited until the start of the new baseball season to write about it.<br />
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While browsing in a used <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Ralphs-Records-357424497546/">record/CD/DVD store</a>, which also had a small section on baseball cards, I came upon a Walt Dropo card, which I promptly purchased. (You may click on the following photo to enlarge it.)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhflx3guYuL6I7gBXo-dVYeP24cwePDW4Go9UC1_y2S9MNJ97NS30V9XRmVbNF0Cx2MYwizOh31dFxHGLhRyPtecxZIdsP5HrigPb032FrsXL702FgaxHsp0lYrMw7bJt7vFwJT/s1600/dropo2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="287" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhflx3guYuL6I7gBXo-dVYeP24cwePDW4Go9UC1_y2S9MNJ97NS30V9XRmVbNF0Cx2MYwizOh31dFxHGLhRyPtecxZIdsP5HrigPb032FrsXL702FgaxHsp0lYrMw7bJt7vFwJT/s400/dropo2.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Though Dropo's big league career lasted from <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dropowa01.shtml">1949-1961</a>, the card was issued in 1990, as part of the <a href="http://baseballcardpedia.com/index.php/1990_Swell_Baseball_Greats">"Swell" Baseball Greats retrospective series</a>.<br />
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The most recent threat to Kling, Higgins, and Dropo's mark that I could find was a stretch in 2002 by the Yankees' Bernie Williams, during which he produced hits in <a href="http://amarillo.com/stories/2002/08/18/spo_sp081802-4.shtml#.VxQRnjArIfI">11 consecutive at-bats</a>.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-58969069978716595432016-04-09T15:05:00.001-07:002016-04-10T12:56:25.686-07:00Here's the Story, of a Man Named... StoryAs of a few days ago, I had never heard of <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32150/trevor-story">Trevor Story</a>, a 23-year-old rookie shortstop for the Colorado Rockies. With so much else going on in the sports world such as March Madness, the Masters, and the Warriors' quest for 73 wins, I just wasn't following the start of the MLB season that closely.<br />
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Something has happened in the young baseball season, however, to make a streaks aficionado such as myself take notice. Namely, Story hit two home runs last Monday in his first-ever major-league game and he's maintained a streak of homering at least once in all four of the Rockies' games! I've created the following chart (which you can click to enlarge) to document all of Story's plate-appearances so far this season. (Each game appears on a new line. The numbers after ground-outs [G] and fly-outs [F] are standard <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_positions">fielding position numbers</a> and other abbreviations are explained at the bottom of the chart.)<br />
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As this <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=360408127">article from last night's game</a> documents, "Story became the first major leaguer to homer in each of his first four games."<br />
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Another <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/04/09/trevor-story-what-you-need-know-rockies-breakout-performer/82828540/">article</a> notes that, even throwing non-rookies into the mix, Story is just the "[f]ifth player to homer in four straight games to start a season, joining Baltimore Orioles' Chris Davis (2013), Texas' Nelson Cruz (2011), St. Louis' Mark McGwire (1998) and San Francisco's Willie Mays (1971)." Pretty good company!<br />
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As the above chart reveals, Story has entered the big leagues as a free-swinger. He has no walks in his first 19 plate appearances. In addition to his six home runs, he has four strikeouts (three swinging), seven fly-outs (which includes line-drives), one ground-out, and one single.<br />
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The Rockies host the Padres again tonight, with the Colorado rookie trying to homer in his fifth straight game. We'll continue to follow the story...<br />
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<b>UPDATE -- <span style="color: purple;">END OF STORY:</span></b> No home run for Story on Saturday night, <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/colorado-rockies-trevor-story-sees-hr-streak-end-in-loss-to-sd-padres-040916">ending his streak</a>.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-50819299643690224642016-04-01T14:29:00.000-07:002016-04-01T14:34:40.687-07:00Has Buddy Hield Regained His Yield?With the men's NCAA basketball Final Four getting underway tomorrow, the player getting the most attention is Oklahoma's Buddy Hield. His Sooner squad will face Villanova, with North Carolina and Syracuse meeting in the other semifinal.<br />
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Hield has been a rare entity this season -- an actual streaky shooter -- going through sizable stretches of hot shooting, as well as of more mediocre marksmanship. In each of OU's final five non-conference games (from December 12-25), Hield shot .500 or better on threes, with at least five attempts in each contest (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/61663/buddy-hield">game-by-game log</a>).<br />
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The first graph below shows Hield's game-by-game success from behind the three-point arc beginning with the start of Big 12 conference play (you can click on the graphics to enlarge them). After a rough outing at Iowa State in the opener (2-of-9), the senior guard went on a tear of eight straight games shooting .500 or better from long distance (the sizes of the basketball icons are proportional to the number of shots taken in each game, and the opponents are indicated by two-letter abbreviations, which is all I could fit in).* At roughly the midpoint of conference play, Hield's hot shooting was bringing him a lot of <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/big12/2016/01/29/oklahoma-buddy-hield-shooter-basketball-player-of-the-year-candidate/79475822/">media attention</a>. <br />
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Hield cooled down during the latter part of Big 12 play, however, shooting in the .300s on treys in seven of OU's last 10 regular-season games (and never higher than .462 during this span). The Big 12 tournament did go well either for Hield, as he shot .333 (2-of-6) in a win over Iowa State and .167 (1-of-6) in a loss to West Virginia.<br />
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Once NCAA-tournament action got underway, Hield began to reverse his regular-season slump. In OU's first game, against Cal State Bakersfield (abbreviated as "BK" on the horizontal axis), Hield hit 50% of his three-pointers (3-of-6), his first time at the break-even point in his last 13 games. A .429 (6-of-14) outing against VCU was solid, if not spectacular. Then, after regressing to .286 (2-of-7) vs. Texas A&M, Hield broke out with a .615 (8-of-13) performance from downtown in the Sooners' regional-final rout of Oregon.<br />
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Hield's March Madness upturn has involved only a few games, however, so whether or not he's really "back" remains open to debate. Using the statistical technique of <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2012/12/after-22-games-this-season-o.html">local (or "loess") regression</a> to discern larger trends, the results are inconclusive. If the analysis is specified to be highly sensitive or reactive to changes occurring over small numbers of games (left graph, below), there does appear to be a modest NCAA-tournament rise for Hield. However, if the analysis is programmed to less sensitivity and reactivity, and greater smoothness (right graph), no recent rise is detectable<br />
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So whether Hield has regained his yield is unclear. Until tomorrow...<br />
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*For fans of the Big 12, the abbreviations should be interpretable, albeit odd (e.g., "TC" instead of TCU, "KS" for Kansas State). In the midst of conference play, Oklahoma took on LSU ("LS") in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. In the NCAA tournament, BK = Cal State Bakersfield, VC = Virginia Commonwealth, AM = Texas A&M, and OR = Oregon.alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-37266242942778331492016-03-16T22:44:00.000-07:002016-03-16T23:03:38.106-07:00"Explosiveness" of NCAA Men's Basketball High SeedsWith the annual NCAA men's basketball tournament getting underway, I wanted to apply a measure I originally developed for the Golden State Warriors, namely offensive "explosiveness," to the leading teams in March Madness.<br />
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Reuters news-agency blogger Chris Taylor contacted me a week ago, as part of his investigation of statistical tools that might inform March Madness predictions. I told him about explosiveness, which he included among his "<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-money-sports-gambling-idUSKCN0WG1S7">Seven tips for crunching March Madness math</a>." As Taylor characterized my explanation of why one might want to study explosiveness, "Winning teams need to be able to come back from behind, or pull away [in] close games." It remains to be seen whether explosiveness has any predictive power in this year's NCAA tourney. However, as I told Taylor somewhat flippantly, "It seems to work for Golden State!" In the remainder of this posting, I discuss explosiveness in greater detail.<br />
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The explosiveness statistic measures high-scoring bursts in short stretches of time. Instead of looking at 12-minute quarters in the NBA, I looked at 6-minute "eighths" of games. An explosive burst in NBA play is defined as scoring 18 or more points in 6 minutes (3 points per minute), which if maintained over an entire 48-minute game would yield a whopping 144 points. In the Warriors' first 25 games of the present season, in <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-importance-of-six-minute-scoring.html">nearly one-fourth of all their 6-minute blocks</a> did they register an explosive burst.<br />
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For the 40-minute length of college-basketball games, I looked at 5-minute blocks (one-eighth of regulation game-length) to see how often teams scored 15 or more points (i.e., 3 points per minute). Due to time constraints, I analyzed only the top eight projected teams in the field (i.e., all the No. 1 and 2 seeds in the <a href="http://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/external/printable-bracket/2016/bracket-ncaa.pdf">bracket</a>) and looked only at each of these teams' final 10 regular-season games. I did not include overtime periods, so each team had a total of 80 5-minute blocks. As shown in the following table (on which you can click to enlarge), the eight teams varied greatly in their explosiveness.<br />
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As can be seen, Xavier (Ohio), the No. 2 seed in the East region, was the most explosive team among those studied. Playing in the Big East Conference, the Musketeers recorded 13 explosive (15-point or more) bursts in their 80 5-minute blocks. Here are several examples:<br />
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<li>In one game alone, vs. Creighton on March 5, the Musketeers pulled off three bursts (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400840234">play-by-play sheet</a>). Xavier went from having 44 points at halftime to 60 points with 15:00 min remaining; from 66 points with 10:00 left to 82 with 5:00 to go; and 82 with 5:00 left to 98 points at the end. </li>
<li>At Seton Hall on February 28, a game in which the Musketeers trailed 45-26 at the half and ultimately lost 90-81, Xavier rallied feverishly in the second half. XU went from 43 points with 10:00 left to 58 with 5:00 left; and from 58 with 5:00 left to 81 at the final buzzer, a 23-point super-explosion (<a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400840314">play-by-play)</a>. </li>
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Kansas (No. 1 seed in South region) and Oregon (No. 1 in the West) followed with nine explosive bursts each. Oklahoma (No. 2 in West) surprised me with only four bursts, given the <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/big12/2016/01/29/oklahoma-buddy-hield-shooter-basketball-player-of-the-year-candidate/79475822/">excellent three-point shooting</a> this season by the Sooners' Buddy Hield. Virginia (No. 1 in the Midwest) had no explosions in its final 10 regular-season games. </div>
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I next inquired into what other skills and styles of play might contribute to a team's explosiveness (or lack thereof). The first things that occurred to me were that an explosive team was likely to play at a fast tempo (i.e., shooting early in the shot clock, generating many possessions per game) and be good at shooting the three. Results only partially supported these hypotheses (see the grey columns in the chart above). Note, however, that whereas explosiveness was only measured in teams' final 10 regular-season games (because combing through play-by-play sheets is time-consuming), all the other statistics are based on teams' full seasons.</div>
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Xavier indeed plays at the fastest pace (74.5 possessions per game) among the No. 1 and 2 seeds, corresponding to the Musketeers' explosiveness. However, Oklahoma plays nearly as fast (73.7 possessions per game), but had low explosiveness. Virginia plays at a very slow pace (62.4 possessions per game, dead last among the 351 Division I men's teams), which seems to go a long way toward explaining the Cavaliers' lack of explosiveness. (Tempo/possession statistics are available <a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/possessions-per-game">here</a>.)</div>
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Kansas, with nine explosive bursts, thrives on the three-pointer. Not only do the Jayhawks have one of the nation's highest shooting percentages from behind the arc; they also are <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bill-self-is-finally-warming-up-to-the-3-pointer/">attempting more treys</a> than they have in the past. (All shooting, rebounding, and defensive statistics cited here are from the <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1">NCAA statistics webpage</a>.)</div>
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Michigan State, with seven explosive bursts, is first in the nation in two categories: three-point shooting percentage and defensive rebounds per game. Limiting opponents to one shot and making shots yourself should contribute to explosiveness. However, the Spartans are quite low in turnovers forced per game, which presumably works against MSU being able to score quickly.<br />
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Oklahoma, which shoots well, cleans the defensive glass, and plays relatively fast, remains an enigma.</div>
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Keep an eye out for whether the eight teams seeded No. 1 or 2 make it to the Final Four. Either the explosiveness statistic will go out with a bang or be a dud.</div>
alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-90754518241086199622016-01-21T17:55:00.001-08:002016-01-21T17:55:30.278-08:00A Decade of UConn Women's Basketball Wins and Losses, At a GlanceLast Friday, ESPN.com ran a piece documenting the <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/113704/what-are-the-best-100-game-stretches-across-the-major-sports">best 100-game stretches</a> in U.S. college sports and major pro leagues such as the NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB. At the time the article appeared, the University of Connecticut (UConn) women's basketball program had won 99 of its last 100 games (now 101 of its last 102). The legendary UCLA men's basketball program under coach John Wooden also had recorded a 99-1 stretch, from 1971-74.<br />
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The UConn women under coach Geno Auriemma <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geno_Auriemma">have been dominant</a> since winning the first of their 10 NCAA national times (and compiling the first of their five undefeated seasons) in 1995. I, therefore, wanted to look at the Huskies' long-term success beyond their past 100 games.<br />
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I decided to examine UConn's last 400 games, representing roughly the past decade of play. The Huskies' past 400 games span from the opening game of the 2005-06 season all the way to last night, when UConn <a href="http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/w-baskbl/recaps/012016aaa.html">routed Central Florida</a>, 106-51. In these games, the Huskies are 377-23 (.942).<br />
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This record appears more compelling, in my view, when viewed in graphic form. I've thus created a diagram that shows 400 dots (one for each game), with wins depicted in <span style="color: blue;">blue</span> and losses in <span style="color: red;">red</span>. The games are arranged in chronological sequence, from the first contest in the upper-left corner, advancing across each row of dots, until the 400th game in the lower-right corner. Here's the diagram:<br />
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Pretty blue, huh? I can't think of a way to convey the Huskies' dominance any more dramatically. The picture includes both a <a href="http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/w-baskbl/recaps/122910aaa.html">90-game winning streak</a> (the NCAA Division I record among men or women) and the current 101-1 stretch, as indicated by the side annotations. To help with interpretation of the diagram, I also created the following legend:</div>
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(You can click on the graphics to enlarge them.)</div>
alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28819545.post-31240239401869774302015-12-25T13:43:00.000-08:002016-01-26T20:41:30.549-08:00The Importance of Six-Minute Scoring Spurts in the Warriors’ Winning Streak Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!<br />
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As part of the NBA's package of Christmas telecasts, the champion Golden State Warriors (27-1) will host Cleveland (19-7) in a rematch of last season's finals. The Warriors have been the big story of the 2015-16 season, <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/gs">starting out 24-0</a> (a 28-game regular-season winning streak if one includes the last four games of the previous season) to threaten the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers' record <a href="http://thehothand.blogspot.com/2007/01/today-is-35th-anniversary-of-ending-of.html">33-game winning streak</a>. After a December 12 loss at Milwaukee to end the streak, Golden State has won three in a row.<br />
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On this holiday occasion, I'd like to look back on the Warriors' winning streak, using an unusual lens. Offense is the team's forte, as seen in the <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/team-comparison-per-game/year/2015">NBA team-scoring rankings</a>. Some basketball analysts look at statistics such as teams’ points per game or points per 100 possessions. To understand the Golden State Warriors’ success over the past season and a half, in my view, we have to look at smaller segments of play. Not halves, not quarters, but six-minute “eighths” of games. When the first-quarter clock runs down from 12:00 to 6:01, that would be the first eighth; from 6:00 to 0:00, the second. The eighth and final eighth would run from 6:00 to 0:00 of the fourth quarter.<br />
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In the 2015 playoffs, the Warriors played 21 games and thus 168 eighths of basketball (overtimes are not counted within my analyses). In 22 of these 168 eighths (13%), Golden State scored 18 or more points, which translates into 3 or more points per minute. If a team maintained a 3-points/minute pace for a full 48-minute game, it would score 144 points. Thus, I use 18+ point eighths as a marker of offensive explosiveness. The 22 eighths in which the Dubs scored 18+ points during these playoffs included three of 24 points (4 points per minute) and one of 25 points.<br />
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Through the Warriors’ first 25 games of the 2015-16 season – 24 wins followed by a loss – they have recorded 46 eighths of 18+ points in the 200 eighths they’ve played (23%). (Given that opposition is stronger in the playoffs than in the regular season, it’s not surprising that Golden State’s percentage of eighths with 18+ points is higher in the latter.)<br />
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The Warriors’ best eighth of the current season, as far as I can tell, occurred in the last six minutes of the <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=400828201">first quarter</a> on December 8 at Indiana. After scoring 17 points in the first 6:00 of the quarter, the Dubs added 27 points in the latter half of the first quarter (the second eighth of the game). This explosion included four treys (plus Klay Thompson making all three free throws after being fouled behind the arc).<br />
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After the Warriors’ 114-98 <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400828187">win at Brooklyn</a> to go 22-0, acting coach Luke Walton was quoted as saying that, "It's one of our biggest strengths, is that we're never out of a game and we're always one little run away from putting a game away."<br />
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The following graph plots Golden State's points scored in the final 6:00 (the eighth eighth) of their first 25 games this season, as a function the number of points by which they were leading or trailing with 6:00 minutes left in regulation, We see that the Warriors’ greatest scoring outbursts in the final eighth have occurred when they have trailed or been tied heading into them. (For those with some statistical training, the correlation between Warriors’ margin entering the final eighth and their points scored in the final eighth is <i>r</i> = -.52, <i>p</i> < .01.)<br />
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In some ways, this finding is totally intuitive. Trailing or being tied should motivate a team (especially one, such as the Warriors, who were trying to maintain a long winning streak) to play extra hard; conversely, when a team is way ahead, it likely will put reserves in the game and run time off the clock, both resulting in lower offensive output. In another way, however, the finding is not so intuitive. If you’re trailing or tied late in the game, it could mean you are playing a tough opponent and/or having an off-night, which are not conducive to big scoring runs.<br />
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The above graph also shows that failure to respond as expected is what put the Warriors’ winning streak in jeopardy in Game 24 at Boston (a double-overtime Golden State win) and helped end it the next night in Milwaukee. According to the trend-line projection, the Dubs would have been expected to score 17 or 18 points in the final eighth of the Celtics game, but instead scored only 12 (this discrepancy is depicted by the red dashed vertical line). Trailing by 13 at Milwaukee, Golden State would have been expected to put up 20 in the final six minutes, but instead scored only 15.* Given that the Boston and Milwaukee games were the sixth and seventh of a seven-game road trip, the late-game loss of the Warriors’ explosiveness doesn’t seem surprising.<br />
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I don’t expect media outlets to replace the standard quarter-based line-score with one organized by eighths. For highly explosive teams such as the Warriors, however, I do believe eighths are a useful lens for statistical analysis.<br />
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*The Warriors lost to Milwaukee by 13 (<a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400828238">108-95</a>), so strictly speaking, even if Golden State had scored the extra five points predicted by the correlational analysis, it still would have lost. Had the Warriors shown more offensive prowess in the final 6:00, however, the Bucks might have begun to feel pressure and perhaps the ending would have unfolded differently.
alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08047057328265529252noreply@blogger.com0