Grinnell College's Jack Taylor Scores a Whopping 138 Points in a Single Game!

A basketball player scoring 100 points in a single game, as Wilt Chamberlain did in the NBA 50 years ago and a small number of college players have done as well, is a mind-boggling occurrence. Last night, however, Jack Taylor of Iowa's Grinnell College took things to a new level, scoring an unfathomable 138 points in an NCAA Division III (small-school) win over Faith Baptist Bible, 179-104.

Now, Grinnell's style of play is conducive to the launching of lots of shots. A year ago, another Grinnell player scored 89 in a game. But Taylor scored nearly 50 points more than that 89! According to this 2009 profile of the team's offensive approach:

Grinnell coach David Arseneault employs a scheme known only as “The System.” Sometimes referred to as the anti-Princeton offense, “The System” emphasizes a torrid pace of play where offensive possesions last about 5 seconds and typically end with a three-pointer. 

The Grinnell defense is a chaotic, full-court trap that either forces an immediate turnover or degenerates into [an offensive advantage for the other team]. 

It’s so chaotic, Arseneault has to use platoons, substituting all five players every 45 seconds to keep legs fresh.

Taylor's shooting statistics from last night break down as follows: 25-of-37 on two-point attempts; 27-of-71 on three-point attempts; and 7-of-10 on free throws. He played 36 minutes.

From a hot-hand perspective, the question is whether Taylor actually "got hot" or whether his gigantic point total resulted simply from a mediocre shooting percentage on a huge number of shots (108). I would say it's some of both.

Let's focus on Taylor's three-point attempts, as the distance of the shots is held relatively constant and long-distance shots get the crowd excited. Based on the box score and play-by-play sheet from the game, here are his shooting sequences behind the arc in the first and second half (H = hit, M = miss; shots are grouped into sets of five to simplify viewing):

1st half (9-of-32)

MMMMM  HMMMM  HMMHM  MHHMM  MHHHM  MHMMM  MM 

2nd half (18-of-39)

HMMMH  HMMMH  MHMMM  HMHHM  MMMMM  MHMMH  HMHHH  HHHH

As shown, for most of the game, Taylor was not hitting more than one or two straight. Any long streaks were of misses. However, to close the game, Taylor hit his last seven three-pointers in a row.

Using this online calculator, I conducted a runs test to detect possible streakiness in Taylor's second-half shooting (I didn't think there would be any in the first half). Each consecutive sequence of hits or misses is considered a "run." The hit to open the second half is one run. The stretch of three straight misses is a second run. The following two straight hits form a third run, etc. Streakiness is characterized by few runs (i.e., staying in long "grooves" of hitting or missing), as compared to what could be generated at random. Here is a screen capture of the results (on which you may click to enlarge; 1 = hit, 0 = miss):

There were 17 runs, which are too many in this context for there to be streakiness. The associated probability (p) level tells us further that there is a 13% chance that a random process (e.g., flipping a coin and looking for runs of heads and tails) could have generated Taylor's second-half sequence of hits and misses from three-point land. Under statistical convention, we would need this probability to be 5% or less (i.e., p < .05).

One thing that I found really interesting about Taylor's final burst of seven straight successful three-pointers is the quickness of the barrage. Below is a screen capture of the play-by-play sheet, to which I've added red arrows to identify Taylor's made threes.

If you click on the graphic, you'll see that Taylor's seven hits all occurred within roughly two minutes of game time (from 3:54 remaining to 1:57). Several times, either a Grinnell steal or a Faith Baptist Bible layup was followed within 3 to 10 seconds later by a Taylor trey.

In my book, I discuss a late-game barrage by Iowa's Justin Johnson, who made six three-pointers in the final 1:56 against Indiana in 2008 to bring his team within two points.

The fact that Grinnell's game against FBB was not close raises another issue, namely the propriety of continuing to launch three-pointers in the closing minutes when leading by roughly 60 points. The desire to let Taylor finish his performance for the ages is understandable. One could argue, however, that it might have been better for Grinnell to start dribbling out the clock once Taylor had surpassed the previous college record of 116 points.

The "Imperfect Casino" Analogy to Hot Hand Perceptions: A Guest Contribution by Mark Lloyd

Mark Lloyd of Seattle, Washington recently e-mailed me the following essay of his. I invited him to let me post it here on the blog as a guest contribution, and he agreed. Here it is, with light editing.

A couple of years ago I wrote a computer program simulating a basketball team with players' shooting percentages varying on different days according to distributions with a mean of 50 percent, but with different variances. I then tested the strategy of giving the ball to players who made two shots in a row compared to giving the ball to players randomly. In the long term giving the ball to the hot hand was a winning strategy.

Thinking about this recently I came up with an analogy that makes clear the difference between the casino and hot hand theory and the mistakes many statisticians make assuming that believing in the hot hand is just the same as the gambler's fallacy of believing that one should bet on a roulette wheel that has shown a streak of results.

Let’s say we have an imperfect casino with five roulette tables that, if in perfect condition, select red and black 50 percent of the time. The casino’s roulette tables however are in disrepair, and further, the casino sits above a subway line that occasionally shakes the tables, causing them to vary their percentage of hitting black or red from 40-60 to 60-40 with a mean of 50-50. There is no way to observe the condition of the roulette wheel except to observe the results of wagering on the tables.

With most visitors not having the time to do a long-term statistical analysis of the tables, is wagering on a table that has hit red or black twice in a row a better strategy than randomly betting on any color on any table? Clearly yes: A table that is hitting red 60 percent of the time will hit red twice in a row 36 percent of the time, while a table hitting 40 percent will only hit two in a row 16 percent of the time. With the tables at some range between 40-60 and 60-40, this two-in-a-row percentage will vary between 16 and 36 percent. More often imperfect tables that hit two in a row will have a higher winning percentage.

If every day you walk in to the casino, wait for a table to hit a color twice in a row, then bet on that table and color, over time you will do better than if you randomly bet on a random table and color.

A real-life non-statistician watching for a hot hand in a basketball game may well be thinking something like: “He hit two in a row, I think he is shooting better than average today.” The non-statistician has also made a correct observation that at least in the case of basketball, daily shooting percentages vary more than one would expect randomly. In the course of a game there is limited information to measure this variance, so looking for shooting streaks is an imperfect way to find players who have a higher underlying skill that day. The statistician's job is to operationalize that observation.

What statisticians will observe is that in the short term on any given day, if you measure any roulette table in the imperfect casino, the percentage of hitting a color after hitting the same color twice in a row will not be different than after any other sequence (unless a subway train passes underneath). This is the same as observing a basketball player on a given day (or a given hour depending on that shooter's pattern of consistency). This observation misleads the statistician into believing the hot hand is no different than a casino winning streak in a perfect casino, but the statistician is asking a different question than the non-statistician.

The statistician should be asking how the percentage of streaks varies from day to day; this will more closely operationalize what the non-statistician is observing and make the statistician wealthier as well.

The world of sports is a world of imperfect casinos. This confounds statisticians.

Yankees' Scoring Drought in ALCS

The Detroit Tigers have now completed a sweep of the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series to advance to baseball's World Series. Beyond the fact of the Yankees being swept in a playoff series -- the first time this has happened since 1980 -- an additional noteworthy aspect of the ALCS is New York's extreme difficulty scoring runs.

As shown in the table below (for which I consulted the Yankees' game-by-game log), the New Yorkers put zeroes on the scoreboard for 36 of the 39 innings played. (You can click on the graphic to enlarge it.) Another way to look at the situation is that the Yankees scored in only around 8% of the innings of the ALCS.

Over the past few minutes, as I've been writing, the announcers on tonight's Giants-Cardinals National League Championship Series game have been discussing the Yankees' demise. According to these announcers, New York's team batting average against Detroit was a woeful .157.

Of course, the Tigers have excellent pitching, led by Justin Verlander. Therefore, the Yankees' poor offense in the ALCS might be understandable to some extent. An interesting comparison (to me at least) would be to look at how the Yankees did against Detroit in the regular season. Listed below are all the Yankee-Tiger regular-season games this season and the number of innings per game in which New York scored.

April 27 -- 6 of 9 innings
April 28 -- 3 of 9
April 29 -- 4 of 8

June 1 -- 4 of 9
June 2 -- 3 of 9
June 3 -- 3 of 9

August 6 -- 1 of 9
August 7 -- 3 of 9
August 8 -- 6 of 9
August 9 -- 2 of 9

So, in contrast to the ALCS, New York scored fairly readily against Detroit in the regular season. In fact, the Yankees scored in 35 of the 89 total innings (39%) in which they batted against Tiger pitching. Thus, the Yankees did not seem to be at an inherent disadvantage against Detroit pitching in the ALCS. New York just got cold.

Smith's INT-Free Streak Persists, But WVU Crushed

Here's a follow-up to my previous posting on West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith and his streak of not having his passes intercepted. He attempted 55 passes today, none of which was picked off by Texas Tech (29 of his passes were caught and 26 fell incomplete). Smith thus extends his streak to 312 interception-free throws since he was lasted intercepted, vs. South Florida on December 1, 2011. Today was hardly a good day for the Mountaineers, however, as Texas Tech dominated throughout, 49-14.

UPDATE: Smith avoided an interception for his first 13 passes against Kansas State on October 20 (9 complete, 4 incomplete), before finally being picked off by the Wildcats. His streak of interception-free throws thus ended at 325.

West Virginia QB Geno Smith Brings Long Interception-Free Streak to Game at Texas Tech

West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith, whose team plays Saturday here at Texas Tech, has an impressive interception-free streak going. Looking at Smith's player page at ESPN.com, he has played five games this season, attempting 204 passes and completing 166 of them (81.4%), without being picked off a single time.

In Smith's final game of last season, a 70-33 spanking of Clemson in the Orange Bowl, he threw the ball 43 times (completing 32 passes) without an interception. In the game before that, a 30-27 Mountaineer win at South Florida, Smith was picked off twice. Looking at the play-by-play sheet, Smith's final interception came with 9:56 remaining in the fourth quarter, a "pick-six" (interception return for touchdown). Smith rebounded, however, to drive WVU to a touchdown and game-winning field goal. During these two drives, he threw a combined 10 passes, of which 7 were completed. (One West Virginia play was listed as "Team pass incomplete," which may have involved immediately spiking the ball to stop the clock and set up the final field-goal attempt; I'm not including this in Smith's statistics.)

All told, since his last interception, he has attempted 257 passes (204 this season + 43 in the Orange Bowl + 10 at the end of the South Florida game) and completed 205 of them (166 this season + 32 in the Orange Bowl + 7 at the end of the South Florida game).

The NCAA record book for top-tier (Football Bowl Subdivision) programs features this entry:

MOST CONSECUTIVE PASSES ATTEMPTED WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

379—Russell Wilson, North Carolina St., 2008-09

Thus, if Smith continues to average around 40 pass attempts per game and doesn't throw any interceptions, he could surpass Wilson in three more games. For Smith's entire collegiate career, he's thrown 15 interceptions in 1,151 passing attempts (a little over 1%). If we assume, accordingly, that each future pass he throws has a .99 probability of not being intercepted, then his probability of throwing another 122 attempts without an interception (to tie Wilson) is .99 to the 122nd power. This yields roughly a .30 chance of Smith tying Wilson.

Some observers may question the value of attempts without an interception, as under this metric a quarterback receives credit for throwing a ball away when no receiver is open. I (and others) have tried to pinpoint the NCAA record for consecutive completions without an interception, without getting final resolution. According to a posting on this West Virginia fan site, Smith is not too far behind some leading figures on consecutive interception-free completions, namely Wilson at 220 and Andre Woodson (Kentucky, 2004-07) at 223. (The fan page lists Smith with 206 straight interception-free completions, a slight discrepancy with my calculation.)

When, if ever, will Smith's collegiate interception-free streak come to an end? Vote in the poll in the right-hand column.

Koji Uehara's 25 Straight Retired Batters

A few nights ago, as the Texas Rangers brought in pitcher Koji Uehara for a late-inning appearance, one of the announcers on the telecast I was watching argued that Uehara was as hot a pitcher as was currently going in Major League Baseball. Naturally, when I hear a claim like that, I have to check it out!

After a few days had gone by, I examined ESPN.com's statistical page for Uehara. I also searched for recent articles, one of which confirmed that before the streak ended (on October 1), Uehara had retired 25 consecutive batters. To put things in perspective, a perfect game involves retiring 27 straight batters (i.e., 3 batters in each of 9 innings).

In honor of Uehara's accomplishment, I have listed the 25 batters that he sat down consecutively (along with the type of out each made) to the right.

As I discuss in my book Hot Hand, then-Chicago White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle holds the record for consecutive batters retired, at 45. The leaders in this category include starters (such as Buehrle) and relievers such as Bobby Jenks (41). In my book, I asked whether a streak of consecutive batters retired would be easier for a starter or reliever to achieve, citing the following considerations:

"A starter can... build up the streak in fewer games, but must have the stamina to keep pitching at a high level throughout the game.  A reliever, on the other hand, may know that he is only going to pitch an inning or two on a given night, which would allow him to concentrate on retiring just a few opposing batters (going “all guns a blazing” with each one). A reliever, though, would have to keep this up for perhaps 20, 30, or more appearances to contend for this record" (p. 93).

I invite readers to share their views on this matter, in the Comments.

Baseball Streaks in Regular Season's Final Days

With only five days left (including today) in Major League Baseball's regular season, a number of hot and cold streaky performances are adding to the excitement down the stretch.

The Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera is threatening to become the first Triple Crown winner in either league since 1967. As of Saturday morning, he leads the American League in batting average (.327, to .322 for his nearest competitor) and runs batted in (133, with his closest rival at 125). Cabrera's 42 home runs put him one behind the leader, Texas's Josh Hamilton. However, Toronto's Edwin Encarnacion also has 42 homers and there are players with 41 and 40. Thus, a homer outburst by any of Cabrera's rivals could sink his Triple Crown hopes. Here's a link to ESPN.com's baseball statistics page, for monitoring the situation. As can be seen on this page of Cabrera's personal statistics, he has raised his performance in some categories from before the All-Star break (taken as a rough marker of the season's halfway point) to after. Before the break, he had 18 homers in 343 at-bats; after the break, he's hit 24 round-trippers in only 262 AB. His batting average is also somewhat higher post- than pre-All Star break (.332 to .324). However, in the past seven days, he has hit only .226 and homered only once. He had a recent 0-for-8 slump that he ended on Thursday. Stay tuned!

The Pittsburgh Pirates, whose bid to end their streak of 19 straight seasons with a losing (sub-.500) record we've been following, are now 76-81. The best they can do is finish 81-81. It wouldn't be a winning record, but it would be a non-losing mark. Honestly, though, it seems highly unlikely the Pirates can win out the rest of the way, so their streak of losing seasons is almost certain to reach 20.

Last night's opener of a series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago White Sox featured teams going in the opposite direction. The White Sox had lost 8 of their last 9 to fall behind Detroit in the AL Central standings (with virtually no hope for a wild-card path to the playoffs), whereas the Rays had won 8 straight to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Sox won last night's game, however, by a 3-1 score. The win keeps Chicago in contention for the division title, 1 game behind the Tigers.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are keeping the pressure on the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland A's, the teams currently positioned for the AL's two wild-card slots. The Angels, having won 25 of their last 35, are only 2 games behind the O's and A's in the wild-card standings. The Angels' talent -- free-agent superstar acquisition Albert Pujols, top youngsters Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout, and stellar pitchers Jered Weaver and Zack Greinke (a late-season acquisition) -- make them a team no one wants (potentially) to face in the playoffs.

The Chicago Cubs are ending a dismal season in a dismal way, dropping 10 of their last 11 games. One small measure of glory for the Cubs was the immaculate fielding of second-baseman Darwin Barney, who had a major streak going for consecutive error-free games. However, after tying the record for his position at 141 straight games without an error, he made one last night!

Orioles' 15-Game Winning Streak in Extra-Inning Contests

With Wednesday's 11-inning victory at Seattle, the Baltimore Orioles have won their last 15 extra-inning games, the longest such streak since 1949. One might hypothesize that an extra-inning game is like a coin-flip, with each team having close to a 50/50 chance to win.

Once a game goes beyond nine innings, it can be decided by as little as one extra frame, where one swing of the bat can be decisive. Perhaps the home team is at a little bit of an advantage, but baseball in general has one of the smallest home-field advantages among popular team sports.

If one flipped a coin in series of some defined length (e.g., sets of 10 or 15 flips) and then plotted a histogram of how frequently different breakdowns of heads and tails occurred (e.g., 50% heads/50% tails; 20% heads/80% tails), the most common occurrence in the long run would be 50/50. Other divisions close to 50/50, such as 49/51, 51/49, 48/52, and 52/48 would also be fairly common, though progressively less so the further one moved away from 50/50. As long as the number of tosses in each series was not too small, extreme breakdowns such as 0% heads/100% tails and vice versa would be very rare. This pattern of outcomes yields the familiar "normal" or "bell-shaped" curve. 

To see if the outcomes of extra-inning baseball games are like coin flips, therefore, we can examine teams' winning percentages in extra-inning games and see if the frequencies of different winning percentages resemble the bell-shaped distribution of coin-flips.

Using ESPN.com's "expanded standings" from 2012 (as of last night), 2011, and 2010, I generated 90 team-year winning percentages in extra-inning games (see column with the heading "XTRA"). In other words, the 2012 Orioles, 2011 Orioles, and 2010 Orioles would be three separate data points, as would the 2012 Yankees, 2011 Yankees, and 2010 Yankees, and so forth.

For the 2012 season to date, Baltimore's extra-inning record is 15-2 (.882), as shown in the far right-hand side of the following graph (which you can click to enlarge). As the graph shows, .500 is the most common extra-inning record in the past three seasons, which occurred 15 times among the 90 team-specific data points. This result is consistent with extra-inning games being like coin-tosses, as is the general tapering off of the curve in both directions from 50/50.

Under a prior assumption of a 50/50 success rate in extra-inning games, the probability of a team (in this case, the Orioles) winning 15 or more out of 17 is about 1 or 2 in 1,000, according to this online binomial calculator from Vassar College. Such an occurrence would thus be rare, but would be expected to happen every several decades.

Keeping in mind that Major League Baseball expanded to 26 teams in 1977, 28 in 1993, and finally 30 in 1998 (history of MLB expansions), one would have to go back 36 years to compile roughly 1,000 team-years. Interestingly, as noted above, one must go back 63 years, to 1949, to find an extra-inning winning streak at least as long as the 2012 Orioles' 15 games. Back in 1949, the Cleveland Indians won 17 straight.  

At the low end of the above distribution stands the 2012 Houston (Dis)Astros. The probability of a team winning 1 or fewer out of 12, given the 50/50 assumption, is around 4 in 1,000.

Further supporting the idea of extra-inning games as coin flips is the finding of non-significant skew (tilt to the right or left) and kurtosis (exaggerated peak) in the plot of teams' extra-inning winning percentages.

UPDATE: On Saturday afternoon, September 22, the Orioles extended their streak to 16 straight wins in extra-inning games, with a 9-6 win over Boston in 12.

"Hot Hand" Book to Be in Texas Tech Faculty Exhibit

Hot Hand, the book, will be part of the Texas Tech University library's annual faculty authors exhibit, beginning Wednesday, October 17. I am shown in the upper-right corner of the Brady Bunch-like promotional video, trying my hand at different sports and games. Take a look by clicking here; it's very cute!

Hot and Cold Streaks Shape NL Wild-Card Race

At the conclusion of today's play, the race for the second wild-card spot in the National League baseball playoffs is very much up for grabs. This is the first year that each league will have two wild-card teams, who will face each other in a one-game playoff (within each league) to begin the postseason. Barring a major collapse, the Atlanta Braves should capture a wild-card slot without much problem (although the Braves did fall apart in a similar situation a year ago).

As shown in the following table, some of the other wild-card contenders have experienced recent streaks that have either strengthened or weakened their playoff prospects.

Team	Record	Recent Streak?
Atlanta	84-63
St. Louis	77-70	Lost 8 of 10 (Sept. 5-15)
L.A. Dodgers	76-71	Lost 8 of last 11
Milwaukee	74-72	Won 20 of last 26
Pittsburgh	73-72	Lost 25 of last 35
Philadelphia	73-74	Won 15 of 19 (Aug. 23-Sept. 12), but lost 3 of 4 in Houston this wkd
Arizona	72-74

HTML Tables

Of the teams listed above, the one threatening to make the most dramatic comeback is (or perhaps "was") Philadelphia. The Phillies occupied last place in the NL East until mid-August and were "sellers" at the trading deadline (i.e., trying to build for the future rather than win now), trading away outfielders Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. However, any team whose pitching staff includes Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels can win games, and that's exactly what Philadelphia did. Losing 3 of 4 to lowly Houston this weekend has put a serious dent in the Phillies' playoff hopes, though.

Over in the right-hand column,you can vote in a poll regarding who you think will grab the second NL wild-card slot (assuming Atlanta wins the first one). You can examine the contending teams' remaining schedules here.

Does a Defensive "Big Play" in U.S. Football Carry Over to the Offense?

With college and professional football swinging into action, now is a good time to look at a study of whether "psychological momentum" carries over from the same team's defense to its offense. For example, if the Chicago Bears' defense thwarts a Green Bay Packers' attempt to go for it on fourth down, does this development spur the Bears' offense to greater immediate success than it would have achieved absent the big defensive play? Presented by Aaron W. Johnson, Alexander J. Stimpson, and Torin K. Clark at last spring's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, the paper is entitled "Turning the Tide: Big Plays and Psychological Momentum in the NFL." A copy of the paper can be found here.

Johnson and colleagues looked at archival records of nearly one-half million plays from almost 3,000 NFL games between 2000-2010. The way defenses ended their opponents' drives were classified into "big plays" (e.g., fourth-down stops, turnovers due to interception or fumble) or routine stops (forcing the opponent to punt). The authors then asked: Do offenses that take the field as a result of a big play by their defensive teammates do better than offenses who take over after a routine defensive stop?

Three criteria of immediate offensive success were used: number of yards gained on the first play of the drive, whether the offense gained a first down (or touchdown) on the drive, and the number of points scored on the drive.

As I understand the authors' approach, they would find in their vast database, one pair at a time, an offensive drive that began immediately following a big defensive play and another offensive drive that followed a routine defensive stop. The authors made sure, within each contrasting pair, that both drives began from roughly the same yard line, to hold constant field position. Ultimately, a huge number of pairs were analyzed.

What the authors found, contrary to the idea of momentum carryover from defense to offense, is that offensive units that took the field after their defensive teammates had made a big play did not produce significantly more yards, first downs, or points than their counterparts who took the field after a routine stop by their defense.

One question, I feel, that would be interesting to address in future research is whether a big defensive play leads to a team's decision to have the offense go for its own big play upon taking possession (e.g., by throwing a long pass or running a double-reverse). Such a play could come to naught, but if the other team's defense comes onto the field with its heads hanging, the offense could catch the defense off guard.

Can Pirates End Streak of Sub-.500 Seasons?

When last we looked in on the Pittsburgh Pirates, they had gone 17-9 in the month of July, putting them in good position to end their streak of 19 straight seasons with a losing (below .500) record. Based on the Pirates' game-by-game log, I created the following chart. It shows that, as late as August 8, Pittsburgh had 16 more wins than losses (63-47) and needed to win only slightly more than one-third of its remaining games to clinch the 82 wins necessary for a winning record. (You can click on the graphic to enlarge it.)

Since then, however, the Bucs have won only 5 games, while losing 13. I would say Pittsburgh still has a good chance to finish above .500, but now the team must win a little more than 40% of its remaining games.

Working in the Pirates' favor, they have 13 games left against the Cubs (7) and Astros (6), two of the worst teams this year. The floundering New York Mets are also on the schedule for four games.

Will the Pirates finally achieve a winning season? I have created a poll in the right-hand column, so you can let us know what you think.

Final Batch of 2012 Olympic Streaks

With yesterday's 86-50 blowout over France, the U.S. women's basketball team won its fifth straight Olympic gold medal and 41st straight game in Olympic play.

Jamaican track star Usain Bolt became, in the words of this article, "the first athlete ever to win the vaunted 100-200 sprint double in consecutive Olympics."

Finally, when the Bahamas captured the men's 4 X 400 relay, NBC track and field analyst Ato Boldon pointed out that this was the first time the U.S. men had been "beaten on the track" in this event in Olympic competition since the 1952 Helsinki (Finland) Games. If one looks at an all-time results list for this event, one finds three instances between 1952 and this year of the U.S. not winning the 4 X 400:

• In 1972, Americans Vince Matthews and Wayne Collett, who had finished one-two in the 400-meter dash, were dismissed from the remainder of the Games for alleged disrespectful conduct during the medal ceremony. This development, along with an injury to John Smith (a one-time world record-holder in the non-metric 440-yard dash), thus incapacitated the U.S. relay foursome.
• In 1980, there was the U.S. boycott of the Moscow Olympics.
• In 2000, the Americans won the race on the track, but "were stripped of their gold ... because of doping infractions" (link).

Technically, I would say, Boldon is correct. However, at least in 2000, the U.S. was found to have gotten an unfair performance advantage.

More Olympic Streaks

U.S. beach volleyball players Misty May-Treanor and Kerri Walsh today concluded their illustrious career, as the duo won the women's gold medal for the third consecutive Olympics. The pair compiled an overall 21-0 match record during these years. The format of each match is 2-out-of-3 games, and May/Walsh dropped only a single game ever (this year) during their three Olympiad.

In women's soccer, Abby Wambach has scored a goal in each of the U.S. team's five games thus far.

One Olympic Track Streak Continues, Another Falls

For the 8th straight Olympiad, Kenya has won the gold medal in the men's 3,000-meter steeplechase.

However, the U.S. streak of 7 straight golds in the men's 400 meters has been dashed -- even before the final of the event. That's because no American runner qualified for the final. Defending Olympic champion LaShawn Merritt pulled up in the qualifying round after re-aggravating a hamstring injury. And the other two U.S. runners just didn't run fast enough in the semi-finals to advance.

Olympic Streak Notes

With the 2012 London Summer Olympics roughly at their halfway point, here are several streak-related items:

• Before these Games, no male swimmer had ever won the same event three times in a row. Michael Phelps has now accomplished this feat -- twice! Last Thursday, Phelps won the 200-meter individual medley, adding to his 2004 and 2008 titles in the event. Then, last night, Phelps achieved a three-peat in the 100 butterfly, an event in which he's had some close calls. As noted in this USA Today article, "Phelps finished in 51.21 to [South African Chad] le Clos' 51.44. That's a comfortable cushion. Consider this: Phelps won the 100 fly by four-hundredths of a second in Athens — and by one-hundredth in Beijing."
• Tonight, the US men won the 400 medley relay (with Phelps swimming the butterfly leg). This makes the American men a perfect 13-for-13 in the event (excluding 1980, when the US boycotted the Moscow Games).
• Zimbabwe's Kirsty Coventry fell short in her bid to win the women's 200 backstroke for the third straight Olympics. As I noted previously, two female swimmers in history have won the same event three consecutive times, Dawn Fraser (100 freestyle, 1956 through '64) and Krisztina Egerszegi (200 back, 1988 through '96).
• Women's beach volleyball duo Misty May-Treanor and Kerri Walsh, still undefeated in their quest for a third straight gold medal, lost a game (also known as a set) for the first time ever in Olympic play. Last Wednesday, the US pair dropped the first game 17-21 against Austrian sisters Stefanie and Doris Schwaiger, but rebounded to even the match with a 21-8 rout and then prevailed in the decisive third set, 15-10.
• In easily winning today's final of the women's tennis singles competition, Serena Williams defeated Russia's Maria Sharapova for the eighth straight time the two have faced each other (click here for list of their head-to-head matches). Sharapova is no pushover, having won a career Grand Slam and been ranked No. 1 in the world at various times.

MLB Teams in July: The Hot, the Cold, and the Inconsistent

This past month in Major League Baseball, several teams distinguished themselves by playing either really well or really poorly. I'm sure there have been similar months in MLB history, but I can't remember any off the top of my head.

Four teams that were hot in July were the:

• Oakland A's (19-5 for the month, including a 16-of-18 winning stretch that harked back 10 years to the "Moneyball" A's); 
• Cincinnati Reds (19-7, including a 10-game winning streak over which longtime Reds announcer Marty Brennaman has promised to shave his head); 
• Detroit Tigers (16-10, which included a 13-of-15 winning stretch, although the team lost 6 of its final 8 games of the month); and 
• Pittsburgh Pirates (17-9). Pittsburgh's July play is noteworthy in that it has helped lift the Pirates to a current 60-44 record, as they seek to end a streak of 19 consecutive losing (i.e., sub-.500) seasons. The Pirates must win at least 22 of their final 58 games to ensure a winning record.

The following chart shows how these four teams fared on each of July's 31 days (there were actually only 27 days of play, due to the All-Star Break; days without games are indicated with a slash). You may click on the graphics to enlarge them.

Three teams, for lack of a better term, stunk it up in July:

• The Houston Astros (3-24), who are in the midst of a "fire sale" to rebuild for the future;
• New York Mets (7-18), whose 4-14 post-All Star Game stretch sunk a once-promising season; and
• Colorado Rockies (7-17, including 4-12 after the break).

Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, who are battling for first place in the National League West, each exhibited streakiness in July. Whenever one of these teams won a few games in a row, it would follow-up by losing a few straight.

US Target Shooter Medals in Fifth Straight Olympiad

US target shooter Kimberly Rhode won the gold medal in skeet shooting yesterday. She has now won a medal in five straight Olympiad:

1996: Gold -- Double trap

2000: Bronze -- Double trap

2004: Gold -- Double trap

2008: Silver -- Skeet

2012: Gold -- Skeet

Both skeet (description, video) and trap (description, video) shooting involve targets that are launched into the air. According to this AP article, Rhode has now become "the first American with individual medals in five straight Olympics." Further, she was a model of near perfection yesterday, "tying a world record and setting the Olympic mark with 99 points — meaning she missed once in 100 shots."

Is There a Hot Hand in Olympic Archery?

Many Olympic sports got underway today in London and environs. One event that I watched today and that potentially is an excellent candidate for hot-hand analysis is archery. As I discuss in my book and in this video, sports that are most conducive to streakiness are those that consist of relatively simple motions that can be repeated with little delay between attempts.

The event I watched today, specifically, was the men's team archery final, between Italy and the United States. Each team has three shooters or archers. When it's a team's turn, each member will get one shot, so that several minutes will elapse between consecutive shots by any one person. This aspect is not optimal for detecting streakiness. Also, each member gets only eight attempts. Thus, even when aggregating over all six participants, the total number of shots is too small for traditional statistical analysis.

Still, for curiosity's sake, I thought I'd examine the arrow-shooting sequences. Archers receive 10 points for their team by hitting the bullseye, and 9, 8, 7, etc., for landing their arrow in each respective outward ring from the center. As I depict in the following chart, no archer earned below an 8 on any shots. Archery matches (in the team format, at least) are organized into four sets (known as "ends") of six shots each. Because each archer on a three-person team shoots twice in one end, I designate the shots as "1a" for first shot of the first end, "1b" for second shot of the first end, and so forth.

I decided to simplify my little analysis by dividing outcomes into two categories: 10's (bullseyes) and non-10's (i.e., 8 or 9). The "hot hand" concept, in the sense of "success begetting success," suggests that when an archer shoots a bullseye (10-pointer), he or she should have a higher probability than usual of hitting a bullseye on his or her next shot, as well. 

Highlighted in gold in the above chart are all attempts that immediately followed a 10. For example, USA Shooter A earned a 10 on his 3a shot, so his next cell (for 3b) is highlighted in gold. Shot 3b was also a 10, so 4a is gold. Unshaded white cells represent attempts immediately following a non-10. Each shooter's first attempt (green cells) is excluded from the analysis, because he had no prior attempts at that point.

As described above, the hot hand hypothesis predicts that 10's will be more common (percentagewise) in the gold cells than in the white cells. As shown at the bottom of the chart, this pattern is exactly what was found: Bullseyes occurred on 46% of the arrows fired after the same archer had hit a bullseye on his previous shot. In contrast, bullseyes occurred on only 28% of the arrows fired after the same archer had scored an 8 or 9 on his previous shot.

Given the small sample, the difference between 46% and 28% was not statistically significant, but it was in the direction predicted by hot-hand reasoning. Considering that the archers faced delays of several minutes between their own shots, this result isn't bad!

I will keep my eye out for additional archery events during these games (men's individual, women's team and individual) and I invite readers to do the same. Statistics for all sports are available at NBCOlympics.com. For the men's team archery final, all the shot-by-shot data were available online (albeit organized in a different format than I used), so I was able to verify the scores I wrote down while watching the event against what was listed on the website. However, as a precaution, I would urge readers interested in conducting their own analyses to write down as much data as they can while watching events on television.

Great Olympic Streaks: Basketball

Here is the 10th and final entry of my series on top Summer Olympic streaks and dynasties, leading into tonight's opening ceremonies of the London Games. To see the earlier entries, covering sports such as gymnastics, swimming, track and field, and volleyball, just keep scrolling down the page.

To my mind, no Olympic streak is more noteworthy -- either for its duration or its ending -- than that of the U.S. men's basketball program. As indicated below in a chart I created from Wikipedia data, the American men entered the 1972 gold-medal game against the Soviet Union with the U.S. having won all seven gold medals ever contested in Olympic history and with a 62-game winning streak (some sources list it as a 63-game streak, but they may be counting a first-round forfeit win over Spain in 1936). As the chart also shows, some of the greatest basketball players of all-time, such as Bill Russell, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, and Bill Bradley played for the U.S. during basketball's early decades as an Olympic sport. (You may click on the chart to enlarge it.)

As many readers will recall, the '72 USA-USSR men's title game is best known for the Soviets, trailing by 1 point with 3 seconds left, receiving three chances to inbound the ball (an original and two do-overs) and finally winning, 51-50. An ESPN Sports Century documentary on the 1972 final is available from YouTube (Part 1, Part 2). If you're too young to remember what happened in that game, the YouTube videos are well worth your time.

Some observers have argued from a U.S. perspective that, even being in a position to lose in a fluke ending by not being well ahead of the Soviet Union reflected poorly on the coaching and preparation of the American team. I would say there's some truth to that.

Of course, in the larger scheme, with the murder of 11 Israeli athletes and coaches during the Munich Olympics (here and here), the results of a basketball game are trivial. I was just shy of 10 years old during the 1972 Olympics. I must say, though, that seeing the video on the '72 US-Soviet basketball game recently, 40 years after the fact, I still found it jarring. Whatever joy the Soviets got out of the game was probably short-lived also. Alexander Below, who scored the winning basket, died of cancer just 6 years later.

(For more pleasant reading on men's Olympic basketball [and other sports], including the Oscar Roberson and Jerry West led U.S. "dream team" of collegians, I would highly recommend the book Rome 1960 by David Maraniss, which came out a few years ago.)   

Whereas the U.S. men won all the early gold medals in basketball and later began to face stiffer opposition (requiring the infusion of NBA players), the U.S. women faced tough hoops competition from the beginning (1976) and then became more dominant over time. As shown on this Wikipedia page that covers both men's and women's Olympic hoops, the Soviet Union (and its 1992 post-break-up conglomeration of republics known as the "Unified Team") won 3 of the first 5 women's gold medals, with the U.S. winning the others (1984 and '88). However, the American women have won the last 4 gold medals (1996-2008), with the margin of victory always reaching double-digits in the 4 finals.

Before closing, I wanted to mention briefly several additional Summer Olympic streaks in sports I did not already write about:

• Aladar Gerevich, an Hungarian fencer born in 1910, won gold in 6 straight Olympics ('32, '36, '48, '52, '56, '60; with the Games of '40 and '44  being cancelled due to World War II). Teammate Pal Kovacs won gold in 5 straight Olympics.
• Cuban heavyweight boxers Teofilo Stevenson (1972, '76, and '80) and Felix Savon (1992, 1996, 2000) each won 3 straight Olympic golds. Hungary’s Laszlo Papp, who fought at various times as a middleweight and light middleweight, also won 3 straight golds (1948, '52, '56).
• Vasily Alexeev, a Soviet weightlifter, won Olympic gold in '72 and '76, along with 8 straight World Championships from 1970-1977.
• Hungary men’s water polo program won 5 out of 7 golds from 1932-1964 and has captured the last 3 (2000-2008).
• Asian domination of badminton.
• Paul Elvstrom, from Denmark, was a four-peat yachting champion from 1948-1960.
• The German (previously West German) equestrian team dressage program won all 7 gold medals contested from 1984-2008.

On to tonight's opening ceremony!

Great Olympic Streaks: Gymnastics

We're down to the final two entries of our daily series. Today, the sport is gymnastics. We're looking at athletes who have had "unparalleled" success, pardon the pun.

Athletes used to have greater longevity in the sport, which is now dominated by youth (with some exceptions). Some of the best-known gymnasts of the last generation, such as Mary Lou Retton, only competed in one Olympiad. Hence, records for gold medals in consecutive Olympics are held by athletes from earlier eras.

It is hard to match the former Soviet Union for gymnasts who excelled over long Olympic careers. These include the all-time record-holder for most Olympic medals in any sport, "Larisa Latynina, who competed in three Olympic Games (1956 to 1964) and won a staggering total of 18 medals, half of which were of the gold variety;" and Nikolai Andrianov, master of the floor exercise in his era, winning gold in 1972 and ’76, and silver in ’80.

Other gymnasts who performed at an elite level through two or more Olympiad include:

• Japan’s Sawao Kato, winner of the men’s all-around gold medal in 1968 and ’72, and silver medalist in ‘76.
• Romania’s Nadia Comaneci (3 golds in ’76, 2 in ‘80), best known as the “first female gymnast to be awarded a perfect score of 10 in an Olympic gymnastic event.” In addition, Comaneci is married to Bart Conner, a former U.S. gymnastics great.
• Vera Caslavska (Czech Republic), “one of only two female gymnasts, along with Soviet Larisa Latynina, to win the all-around gold medal at two consecutive Olympics.”

In addition to the athletes' Wikipedia pages (linked to each person's name), a very helpful source is this all-time list.

In tomorrow's final entry of the series, we'll look at what I consider the most impressive Olympic streak, one that came to a most controversial end (hint, hint).

Great Olympic Streaks: Women's Swimming

Today's entry on great Summer Olympic streaks, the eighth of a 10-part series leading into Friday's opening ceremonies, focuses on women's swimming. One could argue that, whereas men's Olympic swimming historically has made headlines for athletes capturing large numbers of gold medals within a single Olympiad (e.g., Michael Phelps's 8 golds in 2008, Mark Spitz's 7 golds in 1972), the women's side may be characterized more by athletes' longevity.

That's not to say women's swimming is completely devoid of spectacular single-Games performances. In the 1988 Seoul Olympics, East Germany's Kristin Otto "won six gold medals, as well as setting world records in the 50 m freestyle, 100 m freestyle, 100 m backstroke and 100 m butterfly" (the other two golds came in the 4 x 100 freestyle and medley relays).

Several other women's swimmers exemplify longevity, however. Most visible to American fans would be Dara Torres, whose Wikipedia page describes her as “the first and only swimmer from the United States to compete in five Olympic Games (1984, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2008) … [and who] won at least one medal in each of the five Olympics in which she [...] competed.” Torres tried to make the U.S. team yet again this year, at the age of 45, but failed to qualify at the Olympic Trials.

Australia’s Dawn Fraser claimed 3 straight golds in the 100-meter freestyle (1956, '60, and '64), making her “one of only two swimmers to win the same Olympic event three times.” The other is Hungary’s Krisztina Egerszegi, whose 3 straight golds occurred in the 200 backstroke (1988, '92, and '96).

Kirsty Coventry of Zimbabwe will be seeking to match Fraser's and Egerszegi's three-peat feat in London, going for her third straight gold in the 200 backstroke, having already won it in 2004 and '08.

Natalie Coughlin, the 100-backstroke gold medalist in ’04 and ’08, sought to try for three straight, but didn’t qualify in that event at this year’s U.S. Trials.

Great Olympic Streaks: Men's Swimming

Today and tomorrow, we will discuss great Summer Olympic streaks in men's and women's swimming, respectively. Two names obviously leap to the top of the list of great male Olympic swimmers, Michael Phelps and Mark Spitz.

What else can one say about Phelps, a swimmer who has won 14 Olympic gold medals (6 in 2004 and 8 in 2008)? These gold medals consist of 9 in individual events and 5 in relays. Phelps will be entered in 7 events in the upcoming Games (4 individual and 3 relays), raising the possibility that he could leave London with an unimaginable 21 career Olympic gold medals!

Phelps's dominance in his specialty events extends beyond the Olympic Games (OG), of course, also appearing in World Championship (WC) and Pan Pacific (PP) Championship meets (one of the three meets is held each year). The following chart shows his performances in his four main events, the 100- and 200-meter races of the butterfly stroke, and the 200- and 400-meter individual medleys (which consist of laps in each of the four strokes: freestyle, backstroke, butterfly, and breaststroke).

Phelps has won the 200 butterfly the last 8 times he's swum it in major international meets. Previously, he had won the 200 individual medley 7 straight times, before losing in the 2011 World Championships to Ryan Lochte.

Thirty-six years before Phelps won 8 gold medals in a single Olympics, Spitz won 7 in the 1972 Munich Games. Spitz had also captured a pair of relay golds in the 1968 Mexico City Games. In '72, Spitz's golds came from two freestyle races (100 and 200), two butterfly races (100 and 200), and three relays.

In addition to their own winning ways, Spitz and Phelps also contributed to a larger U.S. streak spanning nearly 50 years. The U.S. has won all 12 Olympic men's 4 x 100 medley relays ever contested (excluding 1980 when the Americans boycotted the Moscow Games). 

I have enjoyed the feats of Phelps and Spitz not only as a sports fan, but also as a statistical analyst. Shortly after the 2008 Beijing Olympics ended, I had my statistics class conduct comparisons of Phelps's and Spitz's swimming times, in a way that attempted to account for improvements in training, facilities, etc., between 1972 and 2008.

Aquatic sports also include diving. According to a Yahoo! News series on the Olympics, America's Greg Louganis in 1984 "swept the golds in the 3m springboard and the 10m platform in Los Angeles, becoming the first man to do so in 56 years. Four years later in Seoul, at the advanced diving age of 28 and competing against opponents half his age, he repeated this two-gold feat..."

Great Olympic Streaks: U.S. Dominant Stretches in Several T&F Events

For the sixth entry in our 10-part series on great Summer Olympic streaks and dynasties, we take one final look at track and field. In men's competition, the United States has dominated several events -- generally involving track races over short distances and field events of the jumping variety -- over different stretches of time in the 112-year history of the modern Olympics (i.e., dating from the 1896 revival of the Games). One such streak is relatively recent and still ongoing:

• 7 straight golds in the 400 meters (1984-2008).

Three streaks occurred in roughly the middle portion of the 112-year history of the modern Games.

• 9 straight golds in the 110-meter hurdles (1932-1972, no Games in 1940 and 1944).
• 8 straight golds in the 4 x 100 relay (1920-1956).
• 8 straight golds in the long jump (1924-1960).

Finally, two streaks began with the 1896 revival and lasted from 32 to 72 years.

• 8 straight golds in the high jump (1896-1928; no Games in 1916).
• 16 straight golds in pole vault (1896-1968; 1908 featured a tie of two Americans).

Interestingly, the long U.S. run of success in the pole vault was followed by 6 Olympiad (excluding the U.S. boycott year of 1980) without an American vaulter winning. Nick Hysong finally put the U.S. back atop the medal stand in the pole vault, winning in the 2000 Sydney Olympics.

It's interesting to speculate about why one country seems to "own" an event over an extended period. Why, for example, has a U.S. runner won the last 7 runnings of the 400-meter dash? It has not resulted from the dominance of only a few runners, as 6 different men have accounted for the 7 golds. Only Michael Johnson (1996 and 2000) won more than a single gold.

Perhaps the fact that the 400 is the longest race run entirely in lanes has something to do with the U.S. streak. In races where runners don't have to stay in lanes, there can be physical contact between competitors and tactical issues come into play (e.g., not getting "boxed in" by a phalanx of other runners). Both of these factors can disrupt the top runners and lead to upsets. Assuming the U.S. has had the best 400-meter runners, the strict adherence to assigned lanes has presumably strengthened the Americans' hands (or feet) by reducing the upset potential.

On the other hand, the great potential for hitting hurdles in the 110-meter hurdle race and for dropping the baton (or losing time due to an awkward pass) in the 4 x 100 relay would seem to increase the chances for upsets, compared to other events. Still, the U.S. had long streaks of dominance in these two races. In recent Olympiad, however, poor baton passing has cost the American men and women potential gold on multiple occasions (here and here, for example).

Another factor that can derail one nation's dominance in an event is, of course, the emergence of another nation as a powerhouse in that event. The U.S. dry spell in the pole vault from 1972-1996 can thus be accounted for, in part, by the then-Soviet Union fielding a great group of vaulters. Led by Sergey Bubka, the only person to ever surpass 20 feet, the Soviets swept the gold, silver, and bronze pole-vaulting medals in 1988. Then, even with Bubka faltering in the '92 Games, the Soviets still won gold and silver.

To find lists of all medalists in Olympic competition, see the site Database Olympics.

Great Olympic Streaks: African Distance Runners

Today's posting, the second on track and field and the fifth overall of the series, examines the domination of distance races by runners from African countries. Because women's long-distance races are relatively new to the Olympics, this posting will focus primarily on men's events.

Back in February of this year, in anticipation of the London Games, New African magazine published a history of African (and African-American) performance in the Olympics. According to the article, "Africa first hit the world’s Olympic Games headlines with the marathon triumph of Abebe Bikila at Rome in 1960. He became an overnight hero everywhere the Games were followed because he ran the very long race bare-footed..." The article also noted that the Ethiopian Bikila "crossed the finish line in the record time of 2:15:16.2 to become the first sub-Saharan African to win an Olympic Games gold medal."

Bikila successfully defended his gold medal in the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, but had to drop out of the 1968 Olympic marathon in Mexico City midway through, due to a knee injury. Ethiopia held onto the marathon gold for the third straight time, however, as Mamo Wolde finished first.

From there, as they say, the rest is history. I have created the following chart (on which you can click to enlarge) to show which countries have won gold medals in the Olympic distance races (which I define as the 3,000-meter steeplechase [and previous flat 3,000 for women]; 5,000 meters; 10,000 meters; and marathon) from 1960-2008. As noted in the chart, there was an African nations' boycott of the 1976 Olympics. All-time results are available from a website called Database Olympics.

Clearly, the triumphs of Bikila and Wolde seemed to pave the way for future Ethiopian champion male runners, namely Miruts Yifter (1980 double gold medalist at 5,000 and 10,000 meters), Haile Gebrselassie (1996 and 2000 gold medalist in the 10,000), and Kenenisa Bekele (2004 and '08 10,000 gold medalist, and also '08 winner in the 5,000). There have also been a number of excellent Ethiopian female runners, including Derartu Tulu (10,000 gold medalist in 1992 and 2000) and Tirunesh Dibaba (2008 gold medalist at 5,000 and 10,000).

According to the aforementioned New African article, "The Kenyans hit the forefront in force at Mexico City in 1968." In terms of specific athletes, "Kipchoge Keino... represented the face of East African athletics... At Mexico City the Kenyan won the 1,500 metres with a resounding victory over world record-holder Jim Ryun and also took silver in the 5,000 metres. Four years later he won the 3,000 metres steeplechase and was second in the 1,500 metres."

The steeplechase, in which runners must clear hurdle-type barriers and a water-jump on each lap, has become something of an impenetrable Kenyan stronghold. From 1984-2008, Kenya has won every gold medal in this event and (as noted by asterisks in the above chart) swept gold, silver, and bronze in 1992 and 2004. Interestingly, seven different individuals have brought home the gold for Kenya during the streak, making it a national streak, as opposed to that of an individual athlete.

What are Kenya's chances for winning the men's steeplechase an eighth straight time? Pretty good. Looking at Track and Field News's form charts (predictions), in the most recently issued men's forecasts (July 7), Kenya is picked for gold, silver, and bronze in the steeplechase.

All in all, from 1968-2008 (excluding the boycott year of 1976), African nations have won 29 of 40 possible men’s gold medals in the four distance events. In more recent years, the African men's dominance has been even more pronounced, as from 1996-2008, African countries have taken 15 of 16 possible golds.

In women's competition, Ethiopia has won 6 gold medals in the 5,000 (2); 10,000 (3); and marathon (1).

Prior to Abebe Bikila putting African distance running on the map in 1960, of course, there were many illustrious distance runners from other parts of the world, who warrant mention.

Finland's Paavo Nurmi captured 9 gold medals from 1920-1928 (although these include individual and team cross-country, which is no longer contested at the Olympics). Emil Zatopek, a Czech runner, had a gold-medal trifecta in 1952, winning the 5,000; 10,000; and marathon. He also won a 10,000-meter gold in 1948. Finally, another Finnish runner, Lasse Viren, pulled off a gold-medal "double-double," winning the 5,000 and 10,000 in 1972 and doing the same in '76.

Great Olympic Streaks: 4 Straight Golds in Track & Field

I will have postings on track and field for the next three days, beginning with today's on athletes who have been most successful in defending their titles in particular events. Two names rise to the top of this list due to their "four-peat" performances in their respective events, discus thrower Al Oerter and long jumper Carl Lewis (also a championship sprinter). Both represented the U.S. Athletes who came close to doing what Oerter and Lewis did (e.g., three golds and a silver) are also discussed.

The 6-4, 280-pound Oerter, born in 1936, was very young for someone who won four straight Olympic gold medals, ranging in age from roughly 20 to 32 as he won Olympic titles in 1956, '60, '64, and '68. As can be seen in the following graph I created from this database, Oerter improved his winning distance with each successive Olympic appearance (you may click on the graphics to enlarge them).

Oerter retired after the 1968 Games. Because of his relative youth, however, Oerter was still a viable competitor when he attempted a comeback in 1980. Because of the U.S. boycott of the Moscow Olympics that year (which was announced well before the Olympic Trials), there is no way to know how Oerter would have done, had he qualified for the American team. For what it's worth, Oerter finished fourth in the 1980 Trials (with the top three making the team), although he threw roughly 14 feet further (69.46 m, 227-10¾)  than he ever had when winning Olympic gold.

Lewis, born in 1961, won the long jump in 1984, '88, '92, and '96. As shown in the following plot of Olympic men's long-jump data, his best distances -- in the mid-28-foot range  -- came in winning his second and third long-jump golds.

In the 1991 World Championships, Mike Powell jumped a world-record 8.95 m (29–4½) to end Lewis's 65-meet long-jump winning streak. Lewis was roughly 3 inches short at 8.87 m (29–1¼). According to this ESPN Sports Century profile of Lewis, "At the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona, Lewis exacted revenge on Powell, who had the record that Lewis craved, when he edged him by 1¼ inches with a leap of 28-5½."

In 1996, the 35-year-old Lewis won his fourth straight long-jump gold, although his winning mark (8.50 m, 27-10¾) was off a bit from his previous Olympic bests. Second-place finisher James Beckford (Jamaica) was roughly 8 inches behind (8.29 m, 27-2½). Powell finished fifth.

Three athletes won three straight Olympic golds in their respective events. Men's javelin thrower Jan Zelezny of the Czech Republic took a silver medal in 1988, then won gold in 1992, '96, and 2000. An attempt to tie Oerter and Lewis resulted in a 9th-place finish for Zelezny in 2004.

Viktor Saneyev of the then-Soviet Republic of Georgia captured gold in the triple jump in 1968, '72, and '76. With Saneyev jumping at home in the 1980 Moscow Olympics, fellow Soviet Jaak Uudmäe (17.35 m, 56-11¼) edged Saneyev (17.24, 56-6¾) for the gold by a 4.5-inch margin. This report from Sports-Reference, like other accounts over the years, suggests that some questionable foul calls (e.g., for touching their foot beyond the take-off board) on non-Soviet competitors may have helped Uudmae and Saneyev.

If one counts events that are no longer held, in this case the standing (no run-up) versions of the jumps, then Ray Ewry of the U.S. warrants mention among three-peat winners. He won gold medals in 1900, '04, and '08 in the standing high and long jumps (plus 1900 and '04 titles in the standing triple jump).

But for the 1980 boycott, American 400-meter hurdler Edwin Moses almost certainly would have won three straight golds, as he easily won the event in 1976 (in world-record time) and 1984. His quest for three (non-consecutive golds) came up short in 1988, as he won a bronze medal. During the bulk of his career, Moses compiled a 122-race winning streak.

Among women, Jackie Joyner-Kersee is widely considered one of the greatest, if not the greatest, track and field athletes of her time. She won a silver medal in the 1984 heptathlon (a cumulative competition involving seven events), then golds in the '88 and '92 heptathlons. She set a world record at the 1988 Games for most points in the heptathlon, which still stands.

Great Olympic Streaks: Wrestling

Olympic-style wrestling combines brutal physical confrontation with aspects of finesse that award competitors points for executing moves such as takedowns, escapes, and reversals. Unless one wrestler pins his opponent's shoulders to the mat, thus earning an immediate victory, the outcome of a match is determined by who has the greater point total.

With this information in mind, one can fully appreciate the magnitude of American lightweight-division freestyle wrestler Dan Gable “winning gold at the 1972 Olympic Games in Munich, Germany while not giving up a single point” in six matches. I have not been able to find records on the frequency of wrestlers going unscored upon in an entire Olympic competition, but suffice it to say, it's pretty rare!

Aleksandr Karelin, practitioner of Greco-Roman wrestling, which "forbids holds below the waist," won three straight Olympic gold medals spanning 1988-1996. As noted on Karelin's Wikipedia page, the super-heavyweight went "13 years [1987-2000] undefeated in international competition and six years without giving up a point." Karelin's name presumably was well known to American viewers of the 2000 Olympics, as it was Rulon Gardner of the U.S. who prevented the Russian from taking a fourth consecutive gold. This TIME Magazine article recounts the 2000 final between Gardner and Karelin.

Women's wrestling has been part of the Olympics since 2004. Japan's Saori Yoshida (freestyle) won gold medals in 2004 and 2008, while holding winning streaks as long as 119 matches during her international career. Yoshida will be trying for a third straight gold in London.

Bleacher Report has compiled a slideshow of great Olympic wrestling moments, which can be accessed here.

Great Olympic Streaks: Rowing/Kayaking

Rowing and kayaking are similar, though far from identical sports, in which participants in boats use some type of implement (e.g., oar, paddle) to propel themselves or their teams along a body of water. This YouTube video discusses the differences between the two disciplines.

Each of these sports has a dominant figure who compiled a gold-medal-winning streak lasting a full generation.
Kayaker Birgit Fischer, first representing East Germany and then, from 1992 onward, a unified Germany, won gold medals in 6 straight Olympiad: 1980, [1984 boycotted], 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004. She wanted to come back and participate in the London Games, but her physician put an end to that, based on some undisclosed medical-examination results.

This year's host country is home to one of the all-time greats in rowing. According to the Wikipedia, Sir Steven Redgrave “won gold medals at five consecutive Olympic Games from 1984 to 2000.”