A multi-sport day of streakiness-related news...
The Oklahoma City Thunder laid another egg against the Dallas Mavericks last night, in the NBA Western Conference finals. Leading 99-84 with roughly five minutes left in the game, OKC gave up a 17-2 run, which sent the game to overtime. There, Dallas took over and won 112-105, giving the Mavs a 3-1 series lead.
***
St. Louis Cardinal slugger Albert Pujols ended a massive home run drought. According to this article: "Pujols had gone 105 at-bats, and 119 plate appearances, since his last home run on April 23. Both were the longest homerless streaks of his career." A whole month for Pujols without a homer? Amazing.
[Update. Kevin Lai, writing at Hardball Times, provides a sophisticated statistical analysis of Pujols's drought.]
***
In looking over the website for the French Open tennis tournament, I noticed that the statistical features for following a given match include a "Momentum Meter" from IBM (apparently, this feature has been around for a few Grand Slam tournaments already, but I just noticed it). Here's an example, from an early-round French Open women's match. As can be seen, each player's momentum is graphed from the beginning to the end of the match, sort of like the stock market's value during the day. Certain plays are picked out as "turning points."
I did some searching of the web to try to learn how momentum and turning points are defined, but I didn't find a whole lot. According to this article, the Momentum Meter displays "an overall swing of player success, calculated algorithmically from match data... [when] a player is particularly on top of their game, [exhibiting fewer] unforced errors, holding their service games [,] etc." I'm particularly curious about whether turning points are determined by some mathematical analysis of inflection points in players' momentum values or subjectively by a rater.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Monday, May 23, 2011
Djokovic Wins 40th Straight Match
With today's first-round win in the French Open, Novak Djokovic extended his overall winning streak to 40 and his 2011 season-opening streak to 38. This ESPN.com article includes a chart of the longest men's winning streaks in tennis's Open Era (i.e., from 1968 onward, when professionals were allowed into the Grand Slam tournaments).
The longest overall streak is 46, set by Guillermo Vilas from July-September 1977. The longest streak to open a season is 42, set by John McEnroe in 1984.
Djokovic's website has a match-by-match log, which I've used to create to the following graphic (you may click on it to enlarge).
The longest overall streak is 46, set by Guillermo Vilas from July-September 1977. The longest streak to open a season is 42, set by John McEnroe in 1984.
Djokovic's website has a match-by-match log, which I've used to create to the following graphic (you may click on it to enlarge).
Sunday, May 22, 2011
OKC's Dismal Night on Three-Pointers
Consistent with the team's name, the Oklahoma City Thunder created a lot of loud, banging noises in its 93-87 loss to the Dallas Mavericks last night. Hitting only 1-of-17 on three-point attempts, the Thunder thus clanged a lot of distant shots off the rims! Dallas now leads the series 2-1.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Bulls Go Cold in Key Playoff Game
Having tied Miami 73-all with 7:16 remaining in Game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference finals, the Chicago Bulls got the cold hand. They made only 1 of their last 11 shots and fell to the Heat 85-75 (see fourth quarter play-by-play sheet). The series is now tied at a game apiece.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Dirk Dandy from the Stripe and the Field
Tuesday night's 121-112 Dallas win over Oklahoma City in Game 1 of the teams' NBA Western Conference final series featured quite a bit of streakiness-related matter, the kind that revs up my brain thinking of what kinds of analyses to do.
Most notably, the Mavericks' Dirk Nowitzki went a perfect 24-of-24 at the free-throw line and made 10 of his first 11 field-goal attempts. The perfect night at the stripe -- which set a new NBA playoff record for consecutive made free throws -- might not have been as unlikely as one might expect.
Nowitzki's lifetime postseason free-throw percentage (as of this moment) is .886. Just as the probability of rolling double-sixes on a pair of dice is the probability of a six on one die (1/6) raised to the second power (for two dice), yielding 1/36, the probability of Nowitzki making 24 straight free throws given his long-term average is .886 to the 24th (assuming the outcome of each shot is independent of all other shots). That yields .05, which while not large in an absolute sense, seems pretty large for a probability of achieving something that would be a new NBA record!
Further, Nowitzki had hit 15-of-16 free-throw attempts in the previous round against the L.A. Lakers (for whatever reason, he didn't get to the line much in that series). And in a famous 2003 playoff game against San Antonio in which the Mavericks made 49 straight free throws, the 7-foot German contributed a perfect 17-of-17. Enough on Nowitzki.
The Mavericks-Thunder opener also featured a number of team runs, in which one squad outscored the other by a wide margin over a relatively short stretch of time (play-by-play sheet). Below, I have charted these spurts (you may click on the graphic to enlarge it).
Across the top of each panel are running score totals that either team could have, during selected stretches of the game. In the darker shades of color (blue for Dallas, orange for Oklahoma City) are the major spurts. The Mavericks had two during the early-mid phases of the game, outscoring the Thunder 9-0 to erase an early deficit and 21-4 to turn the game around. Oklahoma City had a late 10-0 run to make the game closer, but ultimately there was no Thunder Road to victory.
[Updated Wednesday afternoon, May 18.]
Most notably, the Mavericks' Dirk Nowitzki went a perfect 24-of-24 at the free-throw line and made 10 of his first 11 field-goal attempts. The perfect night at the stripe -- which set a new NBA playoff record for consecutive made free throws -- might not have been as unlikely as one might expect.
Nowitzki's lifetime postseason free-throw percentage (as of this moment) is .886. Just as the probability of rolling double-sixes on a pair of dice is the probability of a six on one die (1/6) raised to the second power (for two dice), yielding 1/36, the probability of Nowitzki making 24 straight free throws given his long-term average is .886 to the 24th (assuming the outcome of each shot is independent of all other shots). That yields .05, which while not large in an absolute sense, seems pretty large for a probability of achieving something that would be a new NBA record!
Further, Nowitzki had hit 15-of-16 free-throw attempts in the previous round against the L.A. Lakers (for whatever reason, he didn't get to the line much in that series). And in a famous 2003 playoff game against San Antonio in which the Mavericks made 49 straight free throws, the 7-foot German contributed a perfect 17-of-17. Enough on Nowitzki.
The Mavericks-Thunder opener also featured a number of team runs, in which one squad outscored the other by a wide margin over a relatively short stretch of time (play-by-play sheet). Below, I have charted these spurts (you may click on the graphic to enlarge it).
Across the top of each panel are running score totals that either team could have, during selected stretches of the game. In the darker shades of color (blue for Dallas, orange for Oklahoma City) are the major spurts. The Mavericks had two during the early-mid phases of the game, outscoring the Thunder 9-0 to erase an early deficit and 21-4 to turn the game around. Oklahoma City had a late 10-0 run to make the game closer, but ultimately there was no Thunder Road to victory.
[Updated Wednesday afternoon, May 18.]
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Djokovic with 39 Straight Wins
Another Sunday, another championship for men's tennis star Novak Djokovic. This time, it's in the Italian Open, 6-4, 6-4, over Rafael Nadal. With the victory, Djokovic's winning streak is up to 37 matches in 2011, 39 counting two Davis Cup matches at the end of 2010. Djokovic's website has a match-by-match log, which is available here. John McEnroe holds the modern (if not all-time) record with 42 straight match wins to open a season (1984).
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Heat's 16-0 Spurt (Last 10 by LeBron)
LeBron James has, time and time again, shown the ability to take over a game. He and his Miami Heat teammates did it again tonight, as described in this AP/ESPN.com article:
Dwyane Wade scored 34 points, James added 33 -- including the game's last 10 in a spectacular closing flourish, part of Miami's 16-0 run over the final 4:15 -- and the Heat beat the Celtics 97-87 on Wednesday night to win their Eastern Conference semifinal series in five games.
Dwyane Wade scored 34 points, James added 33 -- including the game's last 10 in a spectacular closing flourish, part of Miami's 16-0 run over the final 4:15 -- and the Heat beat the Celtics 97-87 on Wednesday night to win their Eastern Conference semifinal series in five games.
Sunday, May 08, 2011
Serbian Athletes Shine
Today was a good day for Serbian athletes.
Novak Djokovic extended his 2011 win-loss record to 32-0 and his overall winning streak to 34 matches, by besting Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-4 in the Madrid Open tennis tournament.
***
When the Dallas Mavericks this past January signed Peja Stojakovic, a longtime star with the Sacramento Kings turned injury-plagued journeyman, owner Mark Cuban tweeted the following, according to this ESPNDallas.com article:
"Peja is now a Mav ! Time to let him drop some of those 3s on the bad guys."
Though some may think of the L.A. Lakers as "bad guys," we'll assume Cuban simply meant "Maverick opponents." Regardless, though, Stojakovic today did what he was brought in to do, hitting 6-of-6 from behind the arc and teaming with Jason Terry, who was 9-of-10 from long distance himself, as Dallas throttled the Lakers 122-86 to finish off a four-game sweep of their NBA playoff series (box score).
A 26-8 run in the second-quarter, which extended a 37-30 Dallas lead to 63-38, effectively brought the game to an early conclusion.
Novak Djokovic extended his 2011 win-loss record to 32-0 and his overall winning streak to 34 matches, by besting Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-4 in the Madrid Open tennis tournament.
***
When the Dallas Mavericks this past January signed Peja Stojakovic, a longtime star with the Sacramento Kings turned injury-plagued journeyman, owner Mark Cuban tweeted the following, according to this ESPNDallas.com article:
"Peja is now a Mav ! Time to let him drop some of those 3s on the bad guys."
Though some may think of the L.A. Lakers as "bad guys," we'll assume Cuban simply meant "Maverick opponents." Regardless, though, Stojakovic today did what he was brought in to do, hitting 6-of-6 from behind the arc and teaming with Jason Terry, who was 9-of-10 from long distance himself, as Dallas throttled the Lakers 122-86 to finish off a four-game sweep of their NBA playoff series (box score).
A 26-8 run in the second-quarter, which extended a 37-30 Dallas lead to 63-38, effectively brought the game to an early conclusion.
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Friday, May 06, 2011
Scoring Run Powers Mavs in Playoff Win Over Lakers
The Dallas Mavericks outscored the L.A. Lakers 17-5 in the final 4:33 of Game 3 of their NBA playoff series, to overcome an 87-81 deficit and win 98-92. The Mavs now lead 3-0.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
Lakers Miss First 15 Treys in Playoff Loss to Dallas
The L.A. Lakers had the cold hand from behind the three-point arc Wednesday night -- missing their first 15 long-distance attempts -- as they lost, 93-81, and thus fell behind Dallas two games to none in the teams' NBA second-round playoff series.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Ethier Ups Hitting Streak to 28 (and Then 29) Games
The L.A. Dodgers' Andre Ethier last night made it 28 consecutive games in which he's gotten at least one hit. He is now at the halfway point to Joe DiMaggio's record 56-game hitting streak. As a more immediate and realistic target, Ethier is well within reach of the L.A. (post-Brooklyn) Dodger franchise record of 31, held by the late Willie Davis.
As can be seen on this all-time list of hitting streaks of 30 games and longer, some leading streaks of recent vintage include Jimmy Rollins, 38 (2005-2006); Luis Castillo, 35 (2002); and Chase Utley, 35 (2006). Four players in the 2000s reached 30 straight games (Albert Pujols, 2003; Willy Taveras, 2006; Moises Alou, 2007; Ryan Zimmerman, 2009).
[UPDATE, May 5: Today's Los Angeles Times features a retrospective on Willie Davis's streak and his career more generally. Meanwhile, Ethier is sitting on a 29-game hitting streak, having sat out yesterday's game due to an elbow injury. The Dodgers have a travel day today, which gives Ethier a two-day break.]
As can be seen on this all-time list of hitting streaks of 30 games and longer, some leading streaks of recent vintage include Jimmy Rollins, 38 (2005-2006); Luis Castillo, 35 (2002); and Chase Utley, 35 (2006). Four players in the 2000s reached 30 straight games (Albert Pujols, 2003; Willy Taveras, 2006; Moises Alou, 2007; Ryan Zimmerman, 2009).
[UPDATE, May 5: Today's Los Angeles Times features a retrospective on Willie Davis's streak and his career more generally. Meanwhile, Ethier is sitting on a 29-game hitting streak, having sat out yesterday's game due to an elbow injury. The Dodgers have a travel day today, which gives Ethier a two-day break.]
Sunday, May 01, 2011
Djokovic Tennis Win Streak Now at 29 Matches
Tennis's Novak Djokovic has now won 29 matches in a row (27-0 this year) after taking the Serbia Open in his home country.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Spurs' Regular-Season Fade Carries Over to Playoffs
The Memphis Grizzlies have just eliminated the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the NBA playoffs, with a 99-91 victory in Game 6 of the teams' series. Issues of streakiness/momentum were implicated at both the micro and macro levels. Regarding the former, Memphis used a late 12-2 run (from down 80-79 to up 91-82) to blunt the Spurs' comeback and take control of the game. The Grizzlies had also jumped out to a 14-2 opening lead (play-by-play sheet).
At a macro, season-long level, we have seen an epic collapse by San Antonio, from at one point holding a 57-13 record (.814) to closing the regular season with a 4-8 mark, leaving the Spurs' record at 61-21 (game-by-game log). Now, with the series loss to Memphis, the Spurs have become one of the few No. 1 seeds within their conference to lose to a No. 8 seed.
Baseball studies have tended to find no connection between teams' performance levels toward the end of the regular season and in the playoffs (here and here). One series does not a trend make, but San Antonio's fall-off at the end of the regular season certainly presaged a playoff collapse in this instance.
At a macro, season-long level, we have seen an epic collapse by San Antonio, from at one point holding a 57-13 record (.814) to closing the regular season with a 4-8 mark, leaving the Spurs' record at 61-21 (game-by-game log). Now, with the series loss to Memphis, the Spurs have become one of the few No. 1 seeds within their conference to lose to a No. 8 seed.
Baseball studies have tended to find no connection between teams' performance levels toward the end of the regular season and in the playoffs (here and here). One series does not a trend make, but San Antonio's fall-off at the end of the regular season certainly presaged a playoff collapse in this instance.
Friday, April 22, 2011
K-State Baseballer Sees 93-Game On-Base Streak Come to an End
Kansas State University baseball player Nick Martini recently had his streak of reaching base in 93 straight games come to an end.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Late-Game Runs Highlight Opening Day of NBA Playoffs
Opening day of the NBA playoffs featured some dramatic fourth-quarter team runs. The Chicago Bulls closed their game against Indiana on a 16-1 spurt, in rallying for a 104-99 win. The Philadelphia 76ers outscored Miami 12-0 in the closing minutes to pull within 88-87, but the Heat held on to win, 97-89.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Wolves Lose Their Final 15 Games of the Season
The Minnesota Timberwolves closed out their NBA season on a 15-game losing streak.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Schwartzel Closes with Four Straight Birdies to Claim Masters
It was a streaky final day at the Masters golf tournament. Coming down to the end, several contenders were centered around a score of 10-under-par. The winner was an unknown (to me at least), South Africa's Charl Schwartzel. According to this article, "Schwartzel emerged from the madness by becoming the first Masters champion to close with four straight birdies," leaving him on top at minus-14.
Australians Jason Day (holes 17 and 18) and Adam Scott (14 and 16) each recorded two late birdies to finish tied for second at minus-12. Tiger Woods was hot early, lowering his score from minus-5 to minus-10 within the first eight holes today, but minus-10 was where Woods was at the finish line, tied with Geoff Ogilvy and Luke Donald.
And then there was Rory McIlroy, who entered the final round with a four-stroke lead, but then developed a decidedly cold hand. Quoting again from the aforementioned article:
Still leading by one shot as he headed to the back nine, McIlroy hit a tee shot next to the cabins left of the 10th fairway and twice hit a tree to make triple bogey. He three-putted from 7 feet for bogey on the 11th, four-putted from about 12 feet on the next hole and buried his head into his forearm as the shock began to settle in.
McIlroy shot 80, the highest final round by the 54-hole leader since Ken Venturi in 1956.
Australians Jason Day (holes 17 and 18) and Adam Scott (14 and 16) each recorded two late birdies to finish tied for second at minus-12. Tiger Woods was hot early, lowering his score from minus-5 to minus-10 within the first eight holes today, but minus-10 was where Woods was at the finish line, tied with Geoff Ogilvy and Luke Donald.
And then there was Rory McIlroy, who entered the final round with a four-stroke lead, but then developed a decidedly cold hand. Quoting again from the aforementioned article:
Still leading by one shot as he headed to the back nine, McIlroy hit a tee shot next to the cabins left of the 10th fairway and twice hit a tree to make triple bogey. He three-putted from 7 feet for bogey on the 11th, four-putted from about 12 feet on the next hole and buried his head into his forearm as the shock began to settle in.
McIlroy shot 80, the highest final round by the 54-hole leader since Ken Venturi in 1956.
Saturday, April 09, 2011
MLB: Losing First 5 Games of Season A Surprisingly Strong Predictor of Missing the Playoffs
The slow start of the highly regarded Boston Red Sox (losses in their first six games before finally winning last night), as well as those of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (0-6) and Houston Astros (0-5), have prompted a lot of discussion over the seemingly great prognostic significance of such a small number of early-season games for teams' postseason prospects. As Sports Illustrated's Cliff Corcoran writes:
To suggest that any team has reason to worry after such a small dry spell to start the season seems absurd, but here are the facts:
In major league history, which dates to 1871, 110 teams have started a season 0-5. Just two of those 110 went on to make the postseason, less than two percent.
Corcoran goes on to provide his own analysis of the phenomenon, as do other commentators here, here, and here.
To suggest that any team has reason to worry after such a small dry spell to start the season seems absurd, but here are the facts:
In major league history, which dates to 1871, 110 teams have started a season 0-5. Just two of those 110 went on to make the postseason, less than two percent.
Corcoran goes on to provide his own analysis of the phenomenon, as do other commentators here, here, and here.
Friday, April 08, 2011
Woods Turning Things Around at Masters
After struggling a bit on Thursday and early Friday in the Masters golf tournament, Tiger Woods turned things around midway through the second round. As noted in this article, Woods "returned to his brilliant best holing seven birdies in his last 11 holes in a sparkling 66 to lie ominously poised in a tie for third, three shots of[f] the lead."
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