Saturday, January 24, 2015

Greatest Shooting Quarter in NBA History: Klay Thompson

The Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson last night had what I think can fairly be called the greatest single quarter of NBA shooting ever, as his team routed the visiting Sacramento Kings, 126-101. It's not just that Thompson set the Association record for most points in a quarter -- 37 in the third -- but how he did it.

He simply didn't miss. He hit all 9 three-pointers he tried, all 4 two-pointers, and both free throws. Based on this play-by-play sheet of the third quarter, I've graphed Thompson's shot sequence according to time left in the third quarter. You may click on the graphic to enlarge it.


As can be seen, Thompson didn't even begin his third-quarter scoring until 2:16 had elapsed (i.e., the 9:44 mark). Further, he scored 29 of the 37 points from the 6:03 mark in. Twenty-nine points in (roughly) six minutes would translate to 232 points in a 48-minute game! For the record, Thompson scored "only" 52 points on the night (including 11-of-15 from behind the arc). There were two short stretches (5:31, 4:56, and 4:18; 1:06 and 0:35) in which he was hitting a three approximately every 30 seconds.

Thompson entered the game with a three-point shooting percentage of .444 this season. The probability of a 9-for-9 quarter shooting threes would be .444 raised to the 9th power, which is .0007 or 7-in-10,000. However, we are asking this question after the fact, knowing the probability is likely to be very low. Using this binomial calculator, we can also examine the less extreme (although still post hoc) question of how likely a .444 shooter would be to hit 11 (or more) out of 15 three-point attempts in a game. The answer is .02 or 1-in-50.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Hot-Shooting Guards Lead NC St. Over Previously Unbeaten Duke

One of the biggest upsets of the current men's college basketball season occurred this past Sunday, as unranked North Carolina State handed No. 2 Duke its first loss, 87-75. Key to the Wolfpack's win was the three-point shooting of two upper-year guards, senior Ralston Turner and junior Trevor Lacey.

Turner hit three three-pointers in a little over two minutes (between 16:58-14:48) during the second half, to help NC State maintain a narrow lead. A bit later, Lacey hit a couple of threes and a two during a 22-5 run as the Wolfpack expanded a 50-48 lead to a 72-53 advantage (play-by-play sheet). Duke rallied some, but couldn't catch up.

Turner ended up 4-of-7 from behind the arc during the day, whereas Lacey went 5-of-7. As it turns out, these guards' long-range success has been building over the past month. In the following graph, I show Turner and Lacey's three-point shooting percentage game-by-game this season, with the larger basketball data-points (orange for Turner, red for Lacey) reflecting greater numbers of three-point attempts in a given game. You may click on the graph to enlarge it.


The graph should be read from bottom to top, in thin slices. In the Wolfpack's season-opener against Jackson State (JSU), for example, Turner shot 1-of-4 (.250) from behind the arc, whereas Lacey shot 3-of-5 (.600).

If you're an NC State fan, what you want to see are large-sized basketball icons high up in the graph, meaning that a player launches a lot of three-point attempts and makes a healthy share of them. Turner has indeed provided several large orange basketballs, shown in the shaded area representing shooting percentages between .400-.700. Against Tennessee, in fact, Turner made eight treys on an amazing 17 attempts, a .471 clip (click here for Turner's game-by-game log).

Lacey doesn't necessarily shoot many threes in a game -- indicated by the relative dearth of large red basketballs -- but when he fires from downtown, he frequently hits. In six of his last eight games, he has shot .500 or better from behind the arc (click here for Lacey's game-by-game log).

Two additional trends are worth noting. First, for the past month, cold-shooting games have been very rare for Turner and Lacey (see the blue notation on the graph). Second, the two players' shooting accuracy from game to game appears to be correlated. The good news is that, if one of them is shooting well in a game, the other tends to be, also. The bad news, however, is that if one is shooting poorly, so is the other likely to be. For those with some statistical training, the Pearson correlation between Turner and Lacey's three-point shooting percentage is .45 (where 1.00 is the maximum).

It's possible a sort of "contagion" operates between Turner and Lacey, where one player's shooting level in a game (good or bad) rubs off on the other. Another possible explanation is that good defensive teams shut down both Turner and Lacey, and bad ones let both of them shoot the deep ball well.

Monday, December 01, 2014

Buy "Hot Hand" Book as a Gift and Get Free Video Dedication

From today, Cyber Monday, until December 24, if you buy the book Hot Hand as a gift for someone, I will make a short video of myself dedicating the book to your chosen recipient and e-mail you the video, for free. Just e-mail me (alan.reifman@ttu.edu) after you've ordered the book, including the name (first-name only) of the recipient, along with any other information I could work into my dedication (e.g., recipient's favorite athlete or team). I'll e-mail you back the video clip and you can forward it to your recipient.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Hot (Texas) and Cold (N. Dakota St.) Shooting in Austin


I was in Austin, Texas last Friday for a professional conference and was able to attend the Longhorns' opener vs. North Dakota State in the evening. I took the above photo (on which you can click to enlarge) during the warm-ups. As it turned out, there were at least two streakiness-related developments in the game.

  • Even though NDSU led the nation last season in overall field-goal percentage (.509, based on a .564 percentage on two-point attempts and .367 on three-pointers), there was no carryover into the Texas game. The Bison shot .274 on the evening (.303 inside the arc and .241 on treys). As shown in the play-by-play sheet, North Dakota State started the game off by missing its first seven field-goal attempts. This season's annual Sporting News College Basketball Yearbook points out that NDSU lost its top three scorers from last year, which probably goes a long way in explaining the Bison's lackluster shooting in Austin.
  • In contrast, highly touted frosh forward Myles Turner lit things up for the Longhorns. Upon entering the game a few minutes in, he hit three quick jumpers. All in all, Turner hit 6-of-8 from the floor, which combined with 3-of-4 from the stripe, gave him 15 points.

Saturday, August 09, 2014

Elena Delle Donne's Free Throw Streaks

Elena Delle Donne of the WNBA's Chicago Sky and all-time NBA great Larry Bird have a few things in common. Both had intended to play college ball for premier programs (Delle Donne for Connecticut in 2008, and Bird for Indiana in 1974), but left after a short time on campus. Plus, they are both great free-throw shooters.

Bird resurfaced at Indiana State, where he led the Sycamores to the 1979 NCAA championship game. He then had a long and successful pro career with the Boston Celtics, during which he once made 71 straight free throws, seven short of the NBA record at the time.

Delle Donne likewise returned to collegiate competition, in her case with Delaware. According to this webpage, which catalogs consecutive-free throw records at different levels of competition, Delle Donne is tied for the ninth-longest streak of made free throws in women's NCAA Division I history, at 52. She also once made 80 straight from the stripe in high school, one of the longest streaks at that level.

This summer, Delle Donne hit 50 straight free throws for Chicago, giving her stretches of 50 (or more) straight at three levels of play (high school, college, and pro). I don't know how many other players -- male or female -- have achieved this feat, but I doubt there are too many. (According to the free-throw records website, J.J. Redick of the L.A. Clippers has exceeded 50 straight in high school and college; perhaps one day he'll reach that mark in the NBA.)

Going back to Delle Donne, her game-by-game log documents how she hit 50 straight free throws during the current WNBA season. On May 21, she hit 5-of-6 from the stripe; according to the play-by-play sheet, her lone miss occurred on her second attempt, meaning that she made her last four free throws in that game. Her next several games featured free-throw statistics of 9-9, 0-0, 8-8, 16-16 (a WNBA single-game record), 0-0, 7-7, and 3-3. It wasn't until August 3 that Delle Donne missed again. As shown in the play-by-play for this game, she made her first three free-throw attempts, missed, and then made another, for a 4-5 night. Adding up the numbers of made free throws shown in red, you get 50.

The WNBA record for consecutive made free throws is 66, by Eva Nemcova of the now-defunct Cleveland Rockers, spanning the 1999 and 2000 seasons. With Delle Donne's streak of 50 straight free throws having ended, she'll have to mount a new challenge to break Nemcova's record of 66; I wouldn't bet against it!

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Spurs' Record Hot Shooting Lifts Them to NBA Title

As all NBA basketball fans undoubtedly know by now, the San Antonio Spurs are this year's champions, having dispatched of the two-time defending champion Miami Heat in five games. Red-hot shooting was the story for the Spurs.

The Heat looked poised to capture a road victory in Game 1, leading 86-79 with 9:37 left in the fourth. The Spurs then proceeded to hit 6-of-6 on three-pointers (including three by Danny Green) and, before you knew it, San Antonio had won going away, 110-95.

Miami won Game 2 by a 98-96 score, but that was the Heat's last hurrah.

In Game 3, the Spurs hit 75.8% of their shots from the field in the first half, an NBA record for a half of a finals game. This shooting exhibition gave San Antonio a 71-50 lead at the break, en route to a 111-92 rout.

Game 4 (107-86) and Game 5 (104-87) were likewise blowouts. Miami, feeling great desperation on the brink of elimination, jumped out to a 22-6 lead in Game 5. However, San Antonio outscored the Heat 98-65 the rest of the way to clinch the title.

The website Five Thirty Eight has conducted some statistical analyses of the Spurs' dominance, focusing on their passing game and offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions). I plan to conduct some analyses of my own, when I have some time...

Saturday, April 26, 2014

Michigan Softball Run-Ruled in Conference Play for First Time in 270 Games

On April 22, 2000 (or April 23, according to some sources), B1G* softball power Michigan suffered a five-inning run-rule loss to Northwestern by a score of 12-0. For those not familiar with the term, under a run rule (also known as a mercy rule), a baseball or softball game will be called off early if one team has built a large enough lead after a specified number of innings. In NCAA softball, where the regulation length of games is seven innings, the run rule will be triggered when one team leads by at least eight runs after five or six innings.

From 2000-2013, Michigan's softball program won 10 regular-season B1G titles (nine outright and one tie), made the Women's College World Series six times, and captured the NCAA national championship in 2005 (see UM's softball record book).

Entering Friday night's game at Illinois, the Wolverines had played 270 B1G regular-season conference games (i.e., excluding the conference tourney) since being run-ruled by Northwestern in 2000. In fact, Michigan had lost only 41 conference games during that time, an average of roughly three per season.

With Michigan coming into last night's game with a 15-2 conference record, compared to Illinois's 3-14, the occasion would not have seemed ripe for the Wolverines to be run-ruled in a B1G contest for the first time in 14 years and 270 games!

As a proud University of Michigan graduate, it pains me to say it, but it happened. The Wolverines were indeed run-ruled by the Illini, 10-2 in 6 innings. Credit Illinois with timely hitting in bunches. As the linked game article notes, "Four two-out hits in the bottom of the fourth led to Illinois' three runs. Three doubles in the sixth led to the run-rule decision." Four Michigan errors didn't help either.

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*This is the wordmark for the Big Ten Conference. If one reads the "1" like an "I," it says BIG. Also, the "1G" is supposed to be read as a 10.

Cross-posted at my College Softball Blog.