Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Hot 3-Point Shooting in Houston and Ann Arbor

Three-point shots were flying through the nets in Houston, Texas, and Ann Arbor, Michigan, last night.

In H-town, it was the NBA Rockets hitting 23-of-40 (57.5%) from beyond the arc, in a 140-109 rout of Golden State. Interestingly, every Rocket player who attempted at least one trey hit at a .500 or higher clip from downtown (box score):
  • James Harden, 4-of-5
  • Jeremy Lin, 5-of-8
  • Chandler Parsons, 4-of-8
  • Marcus Morris, 3-of-6
  • Toney Douglas, 2-of-4
  • James Anderson, 2-of-4
  • Patrick Patterson, 1-of-2
  • Patrick Beverley, 1-of-2
  • Donatas Motiejunas, 1-of-1
I don't know if an NBA team has ever before had each of its players make half or more of his three-point attempts in the same game, but I doubt it's very common!

Even more surprisingly, according to this game article, "The Rockets put on the shooting display without their best 3-point shooter -- Carlos Delfino sat out with a right elbow injury."

UPDATE: I have since discovered that on March 13, 2005, when Toronto hit 21 from downtown (61.8%, on 34 attempts) vs. Philly, all Raptors who attempted a shot were .500+. These include: Donyell Marshall, 12-of-19; Morris Peterson, 4-of-6; Rafer Alston, 2-of-3; Jalen Rose, 2-of-4; and Matt Bonner, 1-of-2. Also, the NBA's online record book lists Indiana as going 7-of-7 vs. Atlanta on January 20, 1995, for most three-point field goals without a miss in a game. Reggie Miller went 4-of-4, Haywoode Workman, 1-of-1, and Byron Scott, 2-of-2. What the 2013 Rockets and 2005 Raptors did on a lot more attempts is arguably more impressive than the Pacers' 7-of-7, I would say.

Meanwhile, up in Ann Arbor, Tim Hardaway, Jr., and his Michigan Wolverine teammates came roaring out of the locker room to begin the second half and made their first eight trey attempts of the period against Ohio State. UM's only three-point miss of the second half came on a potential game-winner at the buzzer, but the Wolverines prevailed in overtime, 76-74 (article).

As seen in this screen-capture of's play-by-play sheet (which I highlighted), Hardaway made four straight second-half threes within a 3:19 span (from between 12:04 and 8:45 left in the game). You may click on the graphic to enlarge it.

Hardaway added a fifth straight trey with 5:26 remaining.


Heading into last night's play, the Florida men were on one of the "most dominant seven-game stretches in conference play since 2000" (source, see where it says "13 Florida"). The stretch propelled the Gators to No. 2 in the nation. However, a horrible first half at Arkansas doomed Florida in an 80-69 streak-ending loss.

Saturday, February 02, 2013

Hot Hand Meta-Analysis Published

The January 2013 issue of the journal Psychology of Sport and Exercise contains a meta-analysis of hot hand studies, conducted by Simcha Avugos, Jörn Köppen, Uwe Czienskowski, Markus Raab, and Michael Bar-Eli. The authors located 22 articles providing tests of the hot hand (i.e., success begets success, and failure begets failure) in a variety of sports. Because some articles included multiple studies, there were 56 effect sizes in all.

Results from each study were converted to a common correlational metric. The closer an effect size was to +1, the more supportive the study was of the hot hand (i.e., how an athlete performed on one trial is likely to be replicated on the next trial). Effect sizes close to -1, in contrast, convey the opposite of the hot hand (i.e., how an athlete performed on one trial is likely to be followed by an opposite result on the next trial). A zero effect-size doesn't support either trend.

The average effect size was .02, leading the authors to conclude that, "...we found no
solid evidence for either the existence of a general hot hand effect, or for any moderating variable that can explain the extent of a hot hand effect" (p. 26).