Monday, February 18, 2008

Xavier University hoopster Josh Duncan has now gone two games without missing a field-goal attempt -- and almost without missing any kind of shot attempt at all!

Monday night against Rhode Island, Duncan was 8-of-8 on field-goal attempts overall, 3-of-3 on three-pointers, and 4-of-4 from the free-throw line (box score). In his previous game, against Charlotte, Duncan went 7-of-7 from the field overall, 5-of-5 from behind the arc, and 6-of-8 on free throws (what's up with the two misses?).

A senior, Duncan was amazingly consistent on three-point attempts during his first three years, registering seasonal shooting percentages of .386, .385, and .381 (career stats). Prior to the last two games, Duncan was 32-of-82 (.390) from behind the arc this season, very much in line with his three prior seasonal percentages (adding in his 8-of-8 performance on treys in the last two games, he's now 40-of-90 this season, .444).

According to the online binomial calculator, for a player with a .39 previous three-point-shooting percentage to go a perfect 8-of-8 (combined over his last two outings) has a probability of .0005 (about 1-in-2,000), assuming independence of observations (like coin-tossing).

That's pretty remarkable, and it doesn't even take into account his additional success on two-point attempts and free throws!

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