Thursday, March 10, 2011

Up 10 with Under a Minute Left in Basketball? You Usually Win, But Not Virginia Men vs. Miami

Here's a wild outcome. Virginia went on a 20-2 run to take a 50-39 lead with 2:12 remaining in its Atlantic Coast Conference men's tournament game against Miami. The Cavaliers retained a 53-43 lead with 42.5 seconds left. I consider it a virtual certainty that a team leading by 10 or more points with less than a minute left will win and, in the over 25 years I've had this mental rule, it has only failed a few times (here, here, and here).

The rule failed again today, as Miami outscored UVa 10-0 in the remainder of regulation time (making a 3, a 3, a 2, and a 2, separated by a missed pair of free throws and two turnovers by the Cavaliers), and then pulled away in overtime. In the end, it was a 69-62 Hurricane victory.

2 comments:

G Wolf said...

I think the difference is that the other teams down by 10 won in regulation, rather than just tying it to send it into overtime.

So, I'm not sure this latest game should be added to the list?

alan said...

Of all the comeback wins alluded to (in the text or via links), only the Houston Rockets' win over San Antonio was accomplished entirely in regulation.

Miami (vs. Virginia), Duke (vs. Maryland), and UNLV (vs. San Diego State) involved the trailing team first sending the game to overtime.