Iowa State University Men Enter and Then Pull Out of an Extreme Cold-Shooting Spell

Those of you who follow Big 12 men's basketball closely probably noticed the score of Iowa State's home-court loss to Oklahoma State last Wednesday night (March 2): 53 to 36. Yes, the Cyclones scored 36 points for the entire game (20 and 16 in the first and second half). ISU did have some low-scoring games earlier in conference play (44 vs. TCU on January 22 and 41 at Texas on February 5), so maybe an occasional cold-shooting game is not a total surprise. However, the Cyclones appeared to put their rim-clanging performances behind them, as in their five games leading into last Wednesday, they scored 69, 54, 75, 84, and 74 points (game-by-game log).

Then, fresh off of its 36-point performance, Iowa State took the court last Saturday in Waco and promptly fell behind Baylor 29-4. "Here we go again," probably would have been Cyclone fans' reaction. Yet, ISU staged an amazing (although ultimately fruitless) comeback, narrowing their 25-point deficit to only 10 at the half (39-29) and actually taking the lead 60-58 in the second half. Baylor had the last burst of energy, however, winning 75-68

In the graphic below, I used the play-by-play sheet of Saturday's Iowa State-Baylor game to capture the teams' first-half shooting at a glance. I emphasize the first half, as that is where ISU's freezing cold start and the bulk of its comeback occurred. Four things are going on in the graph: 

• The teams: ISU above the center divider, Baylor below.
• Time on the clock, from 20:00 minutes on the left to 0:00 on the right, with each shot denoted by a little bar or circle approximately when it occurred.
• The value of a shot, with three-point attempts being three units long, midrange jumpers being two units long, layups/dunks/tips being one unit long, and free throws depicted by dots.
• Whether the shots were made. Made shots are depicted in bright colors (ISU in red, Baylor in green), whereas missed shots appear in grey.

Here are some of the key points to take from the graph (on which you can click to enlarge):

• For the first 12:00 minutes, there is very little red (a pair of made two-point baskets for ISU) and a lot of green (Baylor baskets). As I bracketed in the graph, ISU missed 14 straight shots, seven of them threes.
• During the last 8:00, Iowa State scored 25 points (to Baylor's 10), which for the Cyclones was roughly three points per minute (projecting to 120 points in 40 minutes). Interestingly, ISU made up all this ground hitting only a pair of three-pointers. Scrapping for two-point baskets remains a viable way of staging a comeback.  
• In the second half of the Iowa State-Baylor game (not graphed), the Cyclones scored 39 points (more than in the entire Oklahoma State game three days prior). 

Here are Iowa State's shooting percentages as a team in the recent Oklahoma State and Baylor games.

Opponent	Half	Shooting % on 2 PT	Shooting % on 3 PT
Oklahoma State	First	.389 (7-for-18)	.100 (1-for-10)
Oklahoma State	Second	.333 (6-for-18)	.143 (1-for-7)
Baylor	First	.550 (11-for-20)	.182 (2-for-11)
Baylor	Second	.714 (10-for-14)	.357 (5-for-14)

There you have it, a moderately deep dive into Iowa State's recent cold shooting. I never cease to be amazed at how quickly a team can enter a hot or cold spell and then just as quickly get out of it.