Later today, the racehorse Big Brown will run in the Belmont Stakes, seeking to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. Enthusiasm for horse racing has been dampened in the hearts and minds of many observers because of the life-ending injuries suffered by Eight Belles this year and Barbaro in 2006, and for other reasons.

Still, however reluctantly, the sports world will recognize the achievement of Big Brown, if he wins the Triple Crown. Therefore, in recognition of this potentially historic day, I'm going back into the "vaults" of the old version of my Hot Hand page to share this 2004 statistical analysis, from when Smarty Jones narrowly missed winning the Triple Crown. That 2004 write-up also attracted an unusual number of commentaries, which are shown here.

POST-RACE UPDATE

Once again, it's "wait till next year..." (article on the race).